Happy Sunday Morning!
If you’re new here: we are madmen about “respecting your inbox”! Outside of two or three offseason updates, the only emails you’ll receive from us are A) our weekly strategy overview on Thursdays (Angles Email!!!!), and B) our Sunday morning “Inactives // Late Line Movement” email.
Every week in this space, we hit on the games that have seen “significant” line movement — which, in general, we term as games with two or more points of movement off their opening line, or games with a lot of late-week movement. (If you’re new here: this can be a valuable DFS tool toward not just understanding where lines are, but where sharp bettors are saying the lines should be. Said differently: Line movement indicates later-week sentiment, which can help us better understand the game environments available to us.)
Raiders at Ravens opened at 44.0 and is set to close at 41.0. Most of that line movement is on the side of Las Vegas, with Baltimore’s Vegas implied team total growing throughout the week (got up to -10.0 on Thursday). Vegas is not expecting the Raiders to fare well in this spot.
Giants at Commanders opened at 41.5 and is set to close at 43.5. The spread has remained the same throughout the week, with the public expressing growing certainty that points will be scored here.
Saints at Cowboys opened at 44.5 and is set to close at 47.0. Furthermore, the spread has remained consistent throughout the week. The public likes this game environment.
Buccaneers at Lions opened at 48.5 and is set to close at 51.5. Another game environment seemingly ripe for fantasy production this week.
Browns at Jaguars opened at 43.5 and is set to close at 41.5. Both teams are dealing with key injuries on both sides of the ball.
Colts at Packers opened at 43.0 and is set to close at 41.0. Welcome to the Malik Willis experiment in Green Bay. Joking aside, both teams should attack relentlessly on the ground in this spot.
Rams at Cardinals opened at 50.0 and is set to close at 48.0. The spread has swung wildly here this week, with an open of Rams -2.5, to Cardinals -1.5, to a close of a pick ’em. What’s most interesting about that movement is that there hasn’t been any Earth-shattering news from either team this week, as it’s more a case of uncertainty with the Rams and their offensive injuries, including Puka Nacua and three offensive linemen.
CB Marshon Lattimore is inactive for the Saints, boosting the individual matchup for Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb against a team perennially near the top of the league in man-coverage rates.
Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is inactive, as expected. Look for second-year TE Luke Schoonmaker to see significant run as the starting tight end for the Cowboys.
WR Josh Downs is inactive for the Colts, as expected.
QB Jordan Love is inactive for the Packers, as expected. Malik Willis will draw the start under center in Green Bay. Expect the Packers to attack relentlessly on the ground for as long as the game environment allows.
OTs Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin are inactive for the Browns, as is TE David Njoku.
WR Jordan Addison is inactive for the Vikings, as expected. Justin Jefferson could see immense volume against the 49ers.
RB Kenneth Walker is inactive for the Seahawks, as expected. Zach Charbonnett will draw the start.
That does it for this week.
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards!
-Hilow
