Thanksgiving Day Preview

By : Hilow

---

---

Packers at Lions

Game Overview ::

• Packers RBs Aaron Jones (knee) and Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) did not participate in Monday’s walkthrough (estimated) after sustaining injuries in Week 11.
• Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (concussion/knee) was also a ‘DNP’ on Monday’s estimated practice report – Wicks has been a steady contributor to the Green Bay offense of late.
• The Lions have a relatively clean bill of health, with only OG Jonah Jackson (wrist) listed as a ‘DNP’ on Monday’s walkthrough.
• The Packers have forced the second-shallowest aDOT on defense this season, reducing the allure of Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond on this slate.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up 100 yards or scored a touchdown in every game this season but has done both in the same game just twice, keeping him out of the discussion of truly elites at the position. That said, he has been the most consistent fantasy producer at wide receiver aside from Tyreek Hill this year.
• It remains a relative long shot, but the Packers picked up a game on the Vikings for the seventh, and final, playoff spot out of the NFC. They remain 1.5 games back, but an upset win over their division rivals on Thanksgiving would go a long way toward that bid, considering the Vikings still have to play the Lions twice at the end of the year and the Packers play the Vikings in Week 17.

How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

The Packers put the league on notice by scoring 10 first-half points against the Chargers in Week 11. Clearly, I’m being facetious, as Green Bay has now scored a whopping 59 points in the first half (5.9 per game, 31^st in the league) and a laughable 20 first-quarter points (2.0 per game, 30^th in the league) through 10 games played. Yeah, the Jets and Patriots have scored more first-half points than the Packers this season (only the Giants have scored fewer first-half points this season). As we’ve discussed previously, the first half is the part of NFL games where the team’s game plan is most prominent, shifting to a more reactive state in the late second quarter and third quarter, and devolving into an “all bets are off,” desperation state in the fourth quarter. As such, I personally point to head coach Matt LaFleur and the rest of the coaching staff for their struggles this season instead of using quarterback Jordan Love as the scapegoat. We’ve grown accustomed to seeing the Packers dominate time of possession through a methodical offense and prevent defense, forcing teams to march the field in the process. This year, however, they’re more allowing teams to march the field while struggling to sustain drives themselves. That has led to the second-most precipitous drop in average time of possession from last year to this year, ahead of only the Steelers. All of that comes together to tell the story of a team largely finding itself in catch-up mode late in games, particularly against superior opponents (which the Lions are).

With Jones and Wilson both banged up in Week 11, it looks like we’re going to see a backfield led by Dillon, with Patrick Taylor as the change-of-pace back in a difficult matchup against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Detroit has held opposing backs to just 3.8 yards per carry on a surprising 1.45 yards per carry allowed before contact, the latter of which ranks 27^th in the league. Regardless of how they are schematically doing it, the Lions are holding opposing backs to just 16.5 DK points per game, good for fourth fewest in the league. Dillon is averaging 3.5 yards per carry of his own and has some of the lowest underlying metrics in the league, ranking 49^th in juke rate (13.9 percent), 40^th in evaded tackles (16 total, 1.8 per game), and 42^nd in breakaway run rate (1.9 percent). Taylor was signed to the active roster on Monday and the team also signed James Robinson to the practice squad; should Robinson be elevated Wednesday, it would almost guarantee the absences of Jones and Wilson on Thursday.

The Packers have been utilizing a maddening six primary-pass-catcher rotation for the available four primary pass-catching positions of late, with all of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Wicks and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft playing meaningful snaps on a weekly basis since the team’s Week 6 bye. The concussion suffered by Wicks in Week 11 is likely to hold him out of action on the short week, which is likelier to lead to an increase in opportunity for Malik Heath than it is to condense the snap rates for the remaining five semi-starters. We know the drill by now with this unit – Watson holds one of the deepest aDOTs in the league but also has one of the lowest catchable-target rates, Doubs has a solid 25 percent red-zone target share but is targeted on just 21.2 percent of his routes, Reed has a low 72.8 percent route-participation rate while playing almost exclusively from the slot, and Musgrave has seen his snap rates lessened in recent weeks with fellow rookie Kraft taking on a larger role. The Lions have forced the eighth-highest pass play rate this season at 60.7 percent, but the Packers have been slow to adjust to matchups this season and could be left fighting for volume over two quarters worth of play.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Join ‘OWS Free’

Start free – No CC Required

---

The Lions would prefer to be a run-balanced offense but have shown they are not afraid to approach a game plan with an eye on attacking their opponents’ weaknesses. We’ve seen them tilt to a pass-heavy approach against the Buccaneers and Bears in the previous five weeks, two opponents that have become two of the more pass-funnel defenses in the league. We’ve also seen them adopt a more balanced approach when called for (against the Chargers) and an extremely run-heavy approach when called for (against the Raiders). The point here is that the Lions have remained fluid with their game planning and have also been one of the more aggressive teams with in-game adjustments this season. In this spot, against a Packers defense built to take away deep passing and force their opponents to march the field through methodical drives, that means a likely run-balanced approach unless otherwise forced.

Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has maintained a 55-40-5 hold on the backfield in the two weeks since the return of David Montgomery from his two missed contests. That has led to 31 running back opportunities for Gibbs and 26 for Montgomery, with Gibbs finding the paint three times and Montgomery scoring twice in that span. As has been the case for the previous three seasons in Detroit, the Lions hold extreme red-zone and green-zone rush rates, which helps to make sense of the five combined touchdowns over the previous two games between the two. One of the separators when comparing the two is through the air, where Gibbs has a solid 11 targets in the past two games to zero for Montgomery, giving the edge to the former from the perspective of median projections. Any way you slice it, this backfield remains a near-even split in a plus matchup against a Packers team yielding 4.3 yards per carry and 24.3 DK points per game to the position. The touchdown equity is high and the Packers have faced the eighth-most rush attempts against this season. Keep an eye on the status of guard Jonah Jackson heading into Thursday, as he has developed into an above average run-blocking guard on the interior.

St. Brown is the Alpha and the Omega of this pass offense, scoring in Week 11 to extend his streak to 10 games to start the season with either 100 yards receiving or a touchdown. He has scored and gone over 100 yards twice this season, keeping him out of the discussion of the truly elite, outlier-type wide receivers, but he has been the most consistent fantasy producer at the position behind Hill this season. Because the Lions are far more likely to bias their attack to the ground in this matchup, St. Brown is best utilized in conjunction with a pass catcher of the deep aDOT variety from the Packers (Watson and Reed), but he has definite paths to being a player you had to have on a slate with only three games. The Lions have played from elevated rates of 12-personnel this season, which has left rookie tight end Sam LaPorta as the only remaining near every-down pass catcher. Enigmatic second-year speedster Williams has played his highest snap rates in consecutive weeks out of the team’s Week 9 bye, joining the fray at 52 and 65 percent snap-rate clips in that time. That has left about 70 percent of the offensive snaps to Josh Reynolds (who has just three catches in the previous two weeks) and about 25 percent of the offensive snaps to Raymond (also just three catches in the previous two weeks). The Packers have forced the second-shallowest aDOT this season at a paltry 6.4 yards, boosting the per-pass volume expectation of St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs, and reducing the expected targets-per-route-run (TPRR) numbers of Williams and Raymond.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

It’s likeliest we see the Packers slow to adjust yet again after struggling mightily to put up points in the first half of games this season, which spells trouble against a formidable opponent like the Lions. That should allow Detroit to operate from a run-balanced offense for as long as they remain in control of the game, which is likelier than not to last for the duration here. The one thing that could break that expectation is if the Packers can connect on downfield passing early in the game, which is a possibility considering the Lions have faced the fourth-deepest defensive aDOT and quarterback Love holds the league’s fourth-highest intended air yards per pass attempt (IAY/PA). As such, Packers skill-position players are most interesting for what they can do to this game environment – something to keep in mind when building for the short slate.

---

Join ‘OWS Free’

Start free – No CC Required

---

---

Commanders at Cowboys

Game Overview ::

• Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle (ankle) was listed as a ‘DNP’ in Monday’s walkthrough. WR CeeDee Lamb was limited with an ankle issue as well, but recent remarks from head coach Mike McCarthy seem to indicate there is no real concern for his Week 12 availability.
• Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (toe) was limited on Monday’s estimated practice report as he tries to work his way back after missing Week 11’s contest.
• The Cowboys have been the most pass-heavy offense (in pass rate over expectation) over the previous month of play and the Commanders lead the league in pass attempts per game and pass play rate this season.
• Dak Prescott, Lamb, and Brandin Cooks are all positioned well to torch the Commanders through the air, while Jake Ferguson’s robust red-zone role keeps him in consideration.

How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders continue to lean into the pass game under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, ranking third in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) this year and leading the league in total pass attempts (40.2 per game) and pass-play percentage (68.19 percent) through 11 weeks. They began the season bleeding sacks to their opponents while Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson worked almost exclusively downfield, but then went three straight games ceding just three total sacks as those two primary wide receivers began running more controlled routes. On that note, that recent streak of reduced sack rates was bookended by a four-sack game and a six-sack game at the hands of the Giants – both losses. Expect Bieniemy to continue with an emphasis on short-to-intermediate passing to try and help his signal-caller avoid setting the single-season sacks-taken record (which he was on pace to blow past through the first seven weeks of the season). The matchup against the Cowboys can be loosely classified as a semi-run-funnel one, but that hasn’t mattered for Bieniemy and the Commanders this season.

Antonio Gibson’s health is likely to have a profound influence on how interested we are in this backfield come Thursday. Yes, Brian Robinson is still the only running back to return multiple RB1 overall finishes this year, but he has also seen three or fewer targets in all but two games with Gibson healthy (saw six in Week 10 when Gibson left early and saw nine last week with Gibson out). The matchup on the ground is not ideal against a Dallas defense yielding 4.1 yards per carry and the sixth-fewest DK points per game to the position, again making Gibson’s gameday status of the utmost importance. Gibson was listed as a limited participant on the team’s estimated injury report Monday after failing to practice in any capacity leading up to the team’s Week 11 game, although we’ll need to see his participation level on Tuesday to get a more telling picture of what to expect on Thursday. That makes things quite simple for the fantasy expectations here – have interest in Robinson if Gibson misses and temper expectations should Gibson play.

This data point stuck out to me when going through my research – the Cowboys have allowed as many touchdowns to tight ends as they have to running backs this season – six to each position (and just seven to wide receivers). In all my years of studying football, I have never seen something like that this deep into the season. I have no idea if that is simply variance or if there is something in the team’s defense that points to that being a sticky statistic, as I haven’t watched every red-zone snap from the Cowboys this season (maybe someone in Discord is a Cowboys fan and can point to that data point being more signal or noise – if that’s you, give a shout in Discord!). I suppose they did give up three touchdowns to George Kittle when the 49ers stomped them earlier this season. I dunno. Either way, the Cowboys have yielded the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Notable wide receiver box scores against the Cowboys this year:

• Garrett Wilson, Week 2 – 2/83/1
• Michael Wilson, Week 3 – 2/86
• Keenan Allen, Week 6 – 7/85/1
• Adam Thielen, Week 11 – 8/74

Yeah, no wide receiver has surpassed 86 yards receiving against the Cowboys this season, no wide receiver has scored multiple touchdowns, and no wide receiver has returned a GPP-viable score against the Cowboys this season. Now consider that a Commanders pass catcher has surpassed 100 yards receiving just once this season (Dotson) and we’re left with a lot to be desired from this spot. If Bieniemy and the Commanders want to find success through the air, it is likely to come through quick hits and efficiency more than splash plays. The Cowboys have run the third-most man coverage in the league this season (almost 37 percent), against which no Washington pass catcher stands out above the rest this year. Interestingly enough, two of three Logan Thomas touchdowns this year have come against man coverage, but that is filled with noise. The truth of the matter is we’re largely touchdown hunting in this spot against a Dallas defense that has ceded just 13 total passing scores through 10 games played.

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys passed the Bengals in Week 11 as the most pass-heavy team over the previous month of play, seemingly flipping a switch during their Week 7 bye. I’ve noted this in multiple places over the previous two weeks, but McCarthy does seem to care about his players and their achievements in recent weeks, even if those realizations are fed to him by players or other coaches (as someone brought up this week, it was actually Dak that told McCarthy to keep Lamb on the field in the fourth quarter of the team’s Week 10 blowout win so the wide receiver could surpass 150 yards receiving for the third consecutive game). Either way, McCarthy and the Cowboys are leaning into the pass at extreme rates, which aligns beautifully with a matchup against the pass-funnel Commanders defense that dealt away their two top-end pass rushers at the trade deadline. Considering recent tendencies, the matchup, and the divisional opponent, I expect the Cowboys to remain pass-heavy on Turkey Day.

The collective fantasy community is running out of excuses for Tony Pollard after consecutive poor showings against run-funnel defenses in the Giants and Panthers. Furthermore, Pollard has been held to between 13 and 17 running back opportunities in every game since the team’s Week 7 bye, making it more difficult for him to reach the 100-yard rushing bonus (which he has done just once this season). He did find the end zone in Week 11 for the first time since Week 1, but recent team tendencies and poor efficiency are becoming harder and harder to ignore with each passing week for Pollard. Backup running back Rico Dowdle picked up an ankle injury last week and was listed as a ‘DNP’ on the team’s estimated injury report Monday. It would likely be Deuce Vaughn that would see additional work should he miss, leaving it more likely that Pollard sees a slightly elevated snap rate. The Commanders have ceded 4.4 yards per carry to opposing backs this season, ranking near the middle of the league in DK points allowed per game to the position at 22.2. If Pollard has one thing going for him on the Thanksgiving slate, it’s likely to be that he doesn’t come in with overwhelming ownership considering the state of the running back position on this slate.

As was noted above, McCarthy and the Cowboys have really leaned into the pass game since their Week 7 bye. After throwing for multiple touchdowns just once in the team’s first six games, Prescott has tossed two or more touchdowns in each of the previous four games, with three or more in three of them. He also surpassed 300 yards in three of four games since the bye after failing to do so during the first six weeks of the season. A defensive score, extremely positive game script, and a matchup against an ultra-prevent Panthers defense kept Prescott from achieving gaudy numbers in Week 11, but he gets a much nicer on-paper matchup against a reeling Commanders defense that dealt away their top two pass rushers at the trade deadline. Washington has run man coverage at a top-10 rate this season, against which Lamb’s numbers truly jump off the page. Lamb holds a 36.8 percent targets per route run (TPRR) rate against man this season (24 percent against zone) and 3.80 yards per route run (2.40 against zone). Brandin Cooks (1.62 YPRR) and Jake Ferguson (1.57) are light years behind Lamb against man, while seeing slight bumps against zone (Cooks sees his aDOT jump from 10.8 to 13.5 from man to zone). Any way you slice it, this is CeeDee’s offense, although the defensive tendencies of the Commanders play into Cooks’ favor – the Washington defense has been clocked this season against seven and nine routes, of which Cooks runs a good deal. Expect Michael Gallup, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Brooks to all see time on the field behind the three primary pass catchers.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

This game has the makings of a unique Thanksgiving miracle shootout with the levels of emphasis placed on the pass game from each of these teams. That said, it will be up to the Commanders to attack the short-to-intermediate areas of the field and string together drives to keep the relentless Dallas pass rush at bay, a unit that is built to play with a big lead when they can get their edges cooking. The Cowboys have now been the most pass-heavy offense over the previous month of play (overtaking the Bengals this past week) and the Commanders have been the most pass-heavy offense throughout the season, meaning we could see 135-140 total plays run from scrimmage here (the NFL average is around 122). The most likely scenario remains a complete thrashing at the hands of the Cowboys (duh, they are currently listed as 11-point favorites), but we shouldn’t discount a surprise shootout driven by a Commanders team that has done well to hang points on the scoreboard against everyone but the Giants (and Bills, but it’s funnier just to say the Giants) this season (the Commanders average 21.5 points per game but scored just 29 combined points against the Giants in two games and Bills this season, averaging 25.9 points against all other opponents). Due to the spread nature of the Washington offense, a blowup game environment is most beneficial to the Cowboys, which have multiple paths to elite production in this spot due to their own matchup.

49ers at Seahawks

Game Overview ::

• Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said QB Geno Smith is not dealing with an elbow injury but got hit on the tricep and should be fine for Thursday. He was not as optimistic for RB Kenneth Walker (oblique), saying “oblique strains usually take time to figure out” and that they “don’t think he’s an IR candidate.”
• 49ers LG Aaron Banks (toe) was listed as a ‘DNP’ on Monday’s estimated practice report.
• The Seahawks’ offensive line has allowed the third-highest pressure rate this season – not a good sign on paper against the revamped San Francisco defensive line.
• Seattle pass catchers have a grand total of one game of more than 100 yards receiving. That said, DK Metcalf holds an absurd 37.8 percent red-zone target share and has scored only three touchdowns. Variance could work in his favor at some point (although Smith’s regression to the mean plays a role in that as well after his ninth-year breakout season in 2022).

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers are averaging 27.9 points per game (27+ points scored in every game with a healthy Deebo Samuel) while running the sixth-fewest offensive plays from scrimmage this season (60.1), highlighting the extreme efficiency of their offense. They rank first in pass DVOA and first in yards per pass attempt while ranking third in run DVOA and 10^th in yards per rush attempt. Elite, friends. We can expect this team to score points, we can expect them to efficiently move the football, and we can expect them to give their opponents fits with one of the better defensive lines I can remember in recent history. We’ve talked about the forward-leaning nature of Kyle Shanahan’s offense on multiple occasions this season, and about how much Samuel means to the offense as the primary motion man, with Shanahan’s offensive scheme capable of stressing the opposition’s defenses on multiple levels of the field through Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. It is highly likely that this offense finds success against the Seahawks, and it remains highly likely that one of the four primary contributors to the offense ends the day on the optimal roster when the final whistle sounds.

The offense continues to utilize elevated rates of 21-personnel through fullback Kyle Juszczyk, with Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason both playing sparingly all season. Those two change-of-pace options have a combined two games of double-digit snaps over the previous five weeks, highlighting the robust role of All-World running back McCaffrey. McCaffrey has the most rushing and receiving yards amongst backs this season on the second-highest snap share (81.8 percent), also leading the league in red-zone opportunities (48 with eight goal-line carries) and ranking second in total targets (47, or 5.2 per game). Elite talent plus an elite role on an elite offense is always a good combination. The Seahawks present a middling matchup on the ground, having allowed 4.1 yards per carry behind 1.25 yards per carry allowed before contact; yet, they have ceded the fifth-most DK points per game to opposing backs while allowing 52 receptions and 12 total touchdowns to the position (tied for fourth-most touchdowns allowed to backs this year). The Seahawks have also broken a recent trend and allowed a robust 72.7 percent red-zone touchdown rate at home this season against the Commanders, Browns, Cardinals, Panthers and Rams – not exactly a who’s who of offensive prowess. All of that to say, it is highly likely that McCaffrey finds the end zone in this spot, with the biggest concern on this slate being whether or not he returns a separator score you had to have at his elevated salary. That said, raw points become more important as the teams in play on a given slate decreases, making it highly likely McCaffrey finishes the day on the optimal roster. “Highly likely” does not mean “guaranteed,” which leaves the door open for some interesting leverage potential to harness the beauty of variance. More on that below.

Samuel has a low route-participation rate (77.1 percent) and low aDOT (6.8) but sees rushing usage to boost his weekly touch rates, while volume is always going to matter less for the skill-position players of this offense than efficiency and touchdown variance. Any one of Aiyuk, Kittle, Deebo and McCaffrey can become a player you need with their respective roles in this offense and, as we saw last week, the per-touch upside of all players involved can lead to some 300+/3+ games from quarterback Brock Purdy, who has averaged 314.5 yards and three touchdowns in the two games after Deebo returned to the lineup (against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville). He did so on 26 and 25 pass attempts (lolz). Kittle has surged of late, scoring a touchdown and/or going over 100 yards receiving in his previous three games, all of which were played with a healthy Trent Williams (which allows Kittle to be in a route at a higher rate and also motion out of an in-line position). Interestingly enough, his one game during that span with both 100 yards and a touchdown came on just four targets against the Jaguars, highlighting his insane per-touch upside in this offense.

Aiyuk has also gone over 100 yards and/or scored a touchdown in each of his previous three games played, doing so on just 18 total targets in that span. You have to go all the way back to Week 3 to find a game where Deebo saw more than four targets. Even so, Deebo sees a steady rushing role (2.75 carries per game) and carries the same per-touch upside as the other players in this offense. Will increased rates of 21-personnel and emphasis on the primary four skill-position players has left Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud, Ronnie Bell and Willie Snead with decreased roles of late, with the four combining for just 27 offensive snaps with a fully healthy Deebo in Week 11 (Snead was inactive). Charlie Woerner has supplanted Ross Dwelley as the preferred tight end option in heavy sets for an offense that has utilized 12-personnel around 40 percent of the time over the previous two weeks since the team’s Week 9 bye.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks have significant injury concerns ahead of their first meeting with their division rivals on Thanksgiving. Smith picked up an injury that is still listed as an elbow injury despite Carroll saying it isn’t (and yet it’s listed on the injury report as an elbow injury – riddle me this, Pete); Walker picked up an oblique injury in Week 11 with Carroll saying he doesn’t think it will require a trip to IR but that oblique injuries “take time to figure out”; Jake Bobo picked up a shoulder injury in Week 11; and Lockett has been struggling through a hamstring injury that appeared to worsen in Week 11. Talk about poor timing. The Seahawks actually rank ninth in PROE and sixth in overall pass rate this season at 60.96 percent, which is likely directly attributable to offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and the high draft selection of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this year’s draft. The offense prefers to run from elevated rates of 12-personnel (about 42 percent, on average this season), which has held JSN’s snap rates in check for most of the season. The baseline assumption for this offense is between 55-60 percent 11-personnel usage with the emphasis on 12-personnel, which could be in flux this week depending on which personnel are able to play. As things currently stand, I expect Geno and Lockett to play while Walker and Bobo miss.

The likely absence of Walker should lead to a borderline workhorse role for rookie running back Zach Charbonnet, who played a massive 85 percent snap-rate role after Walker departed the team’s Week 11 game early. They just lack viable talent behind those two, with only DeeJay Dallas and Kenny McIntosh currently on the active roster behind the top two backs. The last time one of the top two backs missed a contest (it’s only happened once this season), Walker saw an 80 percent snap rate while Dallas played just 14 offensive snaps. Walker saw a robust 29 running back opportunities in that game, which is right in line with a typically shared workload between Walker and Charbonnet. All of that to say, the workload appears to be locked in stone for Charbonnet should Walker miss here, with a likeliest range of outcomes leading to 24-26 opportunities from the rookie back. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against a 49ers defense holding opposing backs to 4.0 yards per carry and ceding just 18.4 DK points per game to the position behind six total scores allowed this season. Even so, workload, workload, workload. The 49ers have also faced the ninth-most running back targets and Charbonnet is fresh off a career-high six target game with Walker departing early in Week 11.

The 49ers have run near league-average rates of man and zone coverage. Metcalf has seen an absurd 36.1 percent TPRR against man this season but things even out significantly against zone, with Metcalf’s TPRR falling to 17.4 percent against that primary coverage (third on the team behind Lockett and JSN). After experiencing a ninth-year breakout, Geno Smith has shockingly regressed in most predictive metrics (shocking, I know). He has just four games with multiple touchdown passes after unsustainable touchdown rates a season ago and has thrown for more than 300 yards just three times this season. And he’s now dealing with a bruise to the tendon below the tricep (or elbow, or something on his throwing arm). That does not instill confidence against the 49ers in this spot, but weirder things have happened. From a macro perspective, Metcalf leads the team in target share (24.0 percent) and aDOT (12.5) this season, also seeing an absurd 37.8 percent red-zone target share. Even so, the towering wide receiver has gone over 100 yards just once this season and has only three touchdowns to his name through 10 games played. Yada, yada, variance, and the like, but there’s something to be said for the decrease in efficiency considering a changing role in this offense this season. On that note, no other wide receiver has notched a 100-yard game, with Lockett peaking at 94 yards and JSN peaking at 63 yards this season. That could likely be due to an offensive line allowing pressure at the third-highest rate in the league, which does not look good on paper with the visiting 49ers and their revamped defensive line.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Both contests between these two teams played to 34-point affairs in 2022, but the decreased effectiveness of the Seattle red-zone defense paired with both San Francisco’s improving defense (and elite defensive line) and Seattle’s middling offense this season (21.6 points per game) provide more paths to this game turning into a lopsided blowout than in previous meetings between these two teams. That said, there is a wide range of outcomes present any time divisional opponents meet for the first time in a season, which is the case here. The Seahawks also average six more points at home than they do on the road, which has been a reversal in trend this season due to their defensive struggles at home. Either way, there are definite paths to an offensive eruption from both sides, albeit with a likeliest scenario that has the 49ers controlling the game on both sides of the football on the road. Volume is likely going to be hard to come by with both teams averaging around 60 offensive plays per game, although that could also lead to a handful of additional plays run from scrimmage for the team controlling the game environment (most likely to be the 49ers).