Fantasy Football: Week Six Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 6’s action – INCLUDING ANOTHER EARLY TILT IN LONDON.
But first…
Last Week: 11-9 (.550)
– WR: 5-5 (50%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 55-45 (.550)
– WR: 29-21 (58%)
– TE: 26-24 (52%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
Check the Bengals schedule; see the Ravens game. I mean, Rashod Bateman caught a touchdown. Rashod Bateman. I promise you Rashod is a real player (sarcasm). The Cincinnati Bengals defense is bad. Which is good for us as we target fantasy-friendly matchups. Like this one. Against the Bengals. Who have given up 40, 38, and 36 points to the WR position in the last three weeks alone? This week’s beneficiary – the New York Giants. Obviously, if Nabers players, he’s one of – if not the – top WR this week. But there’s still room for Wan’Dale, who’s been a target and PPR play since Week 1. He’s quietly WR28 on the season and gives us one of the sturdiest floors out there at the moment. Nabers is 50/50 at this point, though I’m really not worried about Robinson either way. O/U is 49, both teams are going to throw the ball, and both WR groups are set for a big day.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
There’s trouble in Titletown, USA, folks. Christian Watson’s injury aside, Romeo Doubs and the Packers are beef’n. Per ESPN, Doubs is upset about his opportunities in the passing game over the first four games of the season, so he intentionally missed practices and meetings last week. The result, a one-game suspension. He’s back, and head coach Matt LaFleur says it’s water under the bridge. We’ll see. Both situations point to Jayden Reed continuing to be the guy in this room. And let’s face it – when JLove is behind center, Reed is a stud. Don’t believe me? Check tape. In games that Love started, Reed has averaged nearly seven targets, 27.1 fantasy points, and has scored two touchdowns. This week the Pack host the Arizona Cardinals, who give up their fair share of points to the position (4/5 weeks have been north of 25). Conversely, the Packers are also very generous to WRs (giving up at least 23 in all five games they’ve played), so feel free to trot MHJ, Michael Wilson, or Greg Dortch out there as well. Jordan loves (that’s right) the slot, and Reed lines up 80% of the time there with a 96% route participation. I really like Reed this week.
Honorable mention: DK Metcalf (SEA), Drake London (ATL), AJ Brown (PHI)
My Fades This Week
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
BTJ has been phenomenal this season – a true WR1. And frankly, Trevor needed that. Everyone was super high on Harrison Jr, Odunze, and Nabers – and rightfully so – but I’m thinking Thomas Jr. should have been right there with them. His route participation has always been there (96.4 on the season, 100.0 in two of the last three weeks), but the targets have caught up as well (26 in the last three contests). Trevor Lawrence really seems to trust him also, as he’s targeted him in contested situations eight times so far this season He has dropped a few catchable passes, but hey, I’m willing to overlook it. What I’m not willing to overlook this week is the matchup with Chicago, who ranks seventh against the position. BTJ is sure to see a lot of Jaylon Johnson, who is absolutely one of the top CBs in the game. Johnson received a 77.78% lockdown grade from PFF for Week 5 – good for second amongst qualifiers – and he’s among the lockdown leaders on the season. The Bears will be a handful for Lawrence, subsequently limiting the opportunities for Thomas Jr.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
If you follow my column at all, you’ve probably noticed I place a premium on route participation + targets as a predictor for opportunity. It’s not rocket science; the data is all out there. And usually, when a receiver has 90%+ in route participation and averages ten targets a game, it catches my attention. Hence is the case with Jakobi Meyers, who has taken advantage of Davante’s displeasure with the Raiders organization over the last three weeks. And he’s presented a decent floor for us as well, scoring 7.5 or more in 4/5 contests. But his QB room is garbage. I mean, dumpster floating down the river on fire garbage. Minshew was benched in the third quarter last week and was replaced by O’Connell, who was equally atrocious. I don’t blame Adams for wanting out of there, and I feel bad for receivers like Meyers, who are now stuck in a terrible situation. Plus, they get the Steelers this week, who play pretty damn good defense. Annnnnnnnnd, with a tiny O/U (36.5) there aren’t a lot of expected points to begin with. Mehhhhhhhhhhh.
Honorable mention: Ladd McConkey (LAC), Keenan Allen (CHI), Jalen Tolbert (DAL)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
This one is out there, but I really like this kid. Outside of Week 1, he’s been a non-factor. Last week’s performance against Miami was abysmal – three targets, one reception, five yards. Let’s throw that one out, as Miami is actually fairly decent against the position (7th, giving up 5.4 points per). This is a gut feeling, a hunch, a dart throw. Will Levis doesn’t hate his tight ends, but he doesn’t love them either (20.8% target share), so there is every possibility Chig lacks volume in this one. But there’s also every reason for Levis to lean on the position against such a beatable defense. Indianapolis is terrible against tight ends, especially so these past few games (25.7, 21.8, and 17.3, with a touchdown surrendered in three straight). Chig involvement metrics, minus targets, are just fine, and I actually like the YAC element of his game (4.0+ in the last three). This, for sure, is a deep dive, but I like the potential this week.
Jake Ferguson, Detroit Lions
Jake is soooooo steady when he’s in there. The rapport he has with his QB feeds his volume-based production. He doesn’t have a touchdown on the season just yet, but my spidey sense says it’s coming this week against Detroit. Yes, the Lions have been stingy against tight ends (9th, 6.5 per), but Seattle just got ‘em for 16 points – so they’re not world-beaters. If you look at the other matchups (Rams, Bucs, Cardinals), they really haven’t faced a tight end as sturdy as Ferguson (other than Trey McBride, who went out Week 3 with a concussion). Route participation and targets have been and will continue to be there, annnnnnd Ferguson lines up in the slot a good amount of the time (62%). That’s important here because Detroit has issues with slot coverage. You were probably starting him anyway, but I just wanted to put some sprinkles on your sundae.
Honorable mention: Pat Freiermuth (PIT), Trey McBride (ARI), Sam LaPorta (DET)
My Fades This Week
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
I’m not really sure what to say at this point. We know the history, and we know the type of production we can get from him. But there are so many things wrong here for Andrews. He’s still a fantastic run blocker, which keeps him on the field. Lamar has a solid passer rating when targeting Andrews, and his average depth of target (9.6) speaks to opportunity. But that’s just it – opportunity hasn’t been there. This offense has turned into the Jackson and Henry show, pure and simple, and other talented players are fighting for scraps. Listen to these numbers for Andrews – 23rd amongst tight ends in targets, 26th in receptions, 22nd in yards, and 0 touchdowns. Plus, Likely is outplaying him at this point – he has a higher snap share than Andrews (leading that stat for the last three games) and out-targets him by a 3 to 2 margin (21-14). Jon Harbaugh has insisted Andrews will be there for us, but until we see it consistently it is strongly advised to keep him stashed on the end of the bench. Way down there.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
He’s TE1 in Seattle, but that ain’t saying much. He ranks 15th or lower among tight ends in all counting stats, and his target share is 9.3% (which is also very discouraging, considering this offense puts up points at all the other positions). Kind of crazy, considering Ryan Grubb featured tight ends at the college level during his time as a Washington Husky – which suggested he would do the same at Seattle. NOT THE CASE. Fant’s route participation (83.6%) isn’t the worst ever, but that – along with his lack of targets – is cause for concern. Outside the occasional touchdown (which he still doesn’t have), Fant won’t offer much value week-over-week. The 49ers rank 10th against the position, so it’s not like Fant has a great matchup, either. Ipso facto, I don’t expect much from Fant this week.
Honorable mention: Cade Otton (TB), Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR), Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
