Fantasy Football: Week Six Start/Sit: QB/RB
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 6’s action – INCLUDING ANOTHER EARLY TILT IN LONDON.
But first…
Last Week: 10-10 (.500)
– QB: 5-5 (50%)
– RB: 5-5 (50%)
2024 NFL Season: 65-35 (.650)
– QB: 33-17 (66%)
– RB: 32-18 (64%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Here we are! It took all of five weeks for me to get here, but I finally feel safe enough to recommend CW18 this weekend against the Jags. Maybe it’s that Jacksonville ranks nearly dead last against the position. Maybe it’s Williams’ steady improvement game after game. Maybe it’s the emergence of D’Andre Swift as a pressure relief valve. Maybe, just maybe, it’s knowing that Cole Kmet is Caleb’s binky. IDK WHAT TO TELL YOU. HERE WE ARE. Williams looked right on Sunday, finally. A few hiccups, but mannnnnnn, this is why the Bears drafted him. I know it was against the Panthers, but he did what a good QB is supposed to do against a terrible defense. All the metrics have improved week over week, and I expect more of the same against the Jaguars.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Or Jayden Daniels. Either or. Any way you slice it, this one is going to be a big number. One of the highest O/Us on the week (52.5), you’re going to want a piece or two of this game. 348 yards, 4 passing tuddys, and another 55 yards on the ground last week for Lamar, who is the overall QB1 at this point in the campaign. For their part, the Washington defense – 22nd against the position – has been much better over the past two weeks. But… that was against Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson, neither of which are scaring anyone. I think the Washington defense gets back to giving up 30-burgers this week. You know you’re starting him; I’m just here to tell you this has the potential to be his biggest week all season.
Honorable mention: Daniel Jones (NYG), Geno Smith (SEA), Kirk Cousins (ATL)
My Fades This Week
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Friends, Josh Allen is broke. He’s off. He ain’t right. Nine for thirty. Nine. For thirty. He’s QB10 on the year, granted, but if it weren’t for Weeks 1 and 3 (33 points in each), he’d be a complete bust – especially considering he was probably the first QB off the board in your draft. His top receiver was out last week, I’ll give you that, but he’s scored less than 17 per in 60% of his games this season. And the offense is running more, which further dilutes his value. Oh. And he gets the Jets this week, who happened to be the top defense in the league against the QB position. In fact, the Jets have given up less than 10 points to QBs in three straight. Sam Darnold (or Darling, dealer’s choice) put up six points against them. SIX. Josh Allen is no longer a must-start and certainly isn’t this week against Gang Green.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence actually had his first big boy game of the season in Week 5 against the Colts – 28-34 for 371 and two scores – resulting in nearly 35 fantasy points. We’d take that every week and six times on Sunday if we could get it. Indianapolis is kind of garbage against QBs, yielding the third-highest average to the position in 2024, so maybe that explains it a bit. This week presents a much stiffer challenge – a trip to Chicago to play my Bears, who happen to be second to only the J-E-T-S vs. quarterbacks. The Bears defense has held opposing signal callers to fewer than 10 points in 4/5 games so far and has surrendered only two passing touchdowns in five games. Lawrence has experience playing in London, though I’m not sure it will help this week.
Honorable mention: Will Levis (TEN), Jacoby Brissett/Drake Maye (NE), Raiders QBs (LVR)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Tough game against the Chiefs, but we knew that, right? Kamara has been a godsend this year, so we forgive one rough week. This week Alvin gets the Buccaneers, who rank 20th against RBs, in which should be a game he gets back on track. Volume is the name of Kamara’s game in recent years, but for added bonus he has been incredibly effective with his touches this season. I’m a tad concerned for a few reasons, though. First, Kendre Miller is looming to steal touches. He’s about to be reactivated from IR, and while it might not happen this week, it will soon. Second, and maybe far more impactful, Derek Carr was just diagnosed with a left oblique injury and will miss several weeks. I don’t know who the Saints will trot out this week against the Bucs, but neither of the candidates – Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler – figure to fare all that well. Oddly enough, however, I do like this for Kamara’s value this week, as I expect (insert QB name here) to check down to him in what almost certainly will be a simplified game plan. The Saints defense should keep them in this game, so the script is there for Alvin. Solid floor this week, with definite upside.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
Tracy looked fantastic last week – 18 carries for 129 yards. And get this – not one negative carry. He didn’t score, but still. Buddy looked legit. So much so that he may have supplanted Singletary from the starting role. I mean, why wouldn’t he? Singletary has had a decent floor for fantasy (especially with the receiving work), but his real-world efficiency is garbage. Plus, the injury may keep Singletary out for their Week 6 tilt against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 21st against running backs this season and has been consistently bad. They’ve given up 20 points or more to the position in 4/5 games, including touchdowns in four straight. The O/U for this one currently sits just shy of 50, and the Giants will need to be firing to keep up in this one. You can throw all day on Cincinnati (WRs have scored 40, 38, and 36 in the past three weeks against them), but you can run on them, too (3/5 north of 24 points). I expect the Giants will do both, and they will feature Tracy while doing it. Must start this week.
Honorable mention: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), Bijan Robinson (ATL), Chubba Hubbard (CAR)
My Fades This Week
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
What happened to J.K.? After Week 1 he had us blowing our bankrolls to add him, and he followed that up with another gem in Week 2. Since then? Not so much. Yes, he faced two brutal defenses in the Chiefs and Steelers, and he is coming off a bye week. His opponent this week is the Denver Broncos, who rank 10th against RBs through the first five games. They’d be even better if not for Seattle’s run game taking care of business (34 points) in Week 1. I don’t think Dobbins is in any danger of ceding touches to Gus Edwards – J.K. has pretty much dominated snap share since Week 2. This is more about the mess the Chargers seem to be at this point and the matchup. Denver has been a sneaky good defense this season, and not just against the cake matchups. I don’t expect Dobbins to find much running room this week, even though the game script suggests decent volume.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I almost went Breece Hall here, as he’s been one of the worst running backs in football over the past two weeks, but it kind of feels like maybe he’s got a shot to get-right this week at home against Buffalo. Rather, let’s chat about Bucky Irving. An early dandy of the 2024 season, Irving has shown promise, and he’s been effective with his touches. He’s also played his way into more snaps recently, which is good. But Rachaad White – who looked much better back last week – isn’t going anywhere. On the season, White has basically a 2-1 advantage in snaps, though it’s been 60/40 over the past two weeks. If you own one you kind of have to own both, as any change in circumstances could lead to tremendous volume value for either. The Saints aren’t anything special against the run (after two really good games vs. non-stellar competition, they’ve given up 44,19, and 27, respectively), so it’s not the matchup that has me backing off Bucky this week. It’s the lack of role clarity, the uncertainty of volume, and that Rachaad White may be reestablishing himself as the RB1 of this backfield.
Honorable mention: Travis Etienne, Jr. (JAX), Alexander Mattison (LVR), Rachaad White (TB)
