Fantasy Football: Week Seven Start/Sit: QB/RB

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 6’s action – INCLUDING ANOTHER EARLY TILT IN LONDON.

But first…

Last Week: 12-8 (.600)

– QB: 5-5 (50%)

– RB: 7-3 (70%)

2024 NFL Season: 77-43 (.642)

– QB: 38-22 (66%)

– RB: 39-21 (64%)

Quarterbacks

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable QBs on BYE this Week

Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott

My Guys This Week

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Solid matchup this week vs. the New York Football Giants, who rank 20th against QBs on the season and have given up at least 23 points to the position each of the last three weeks. AJ Brown (2nd out of 126, per PFF) and DeVonta Smith (10th) are both healthy (and both recommended starts), so he’ll have his best weapons on the field. Hurts’ rating when targeting Brown or Smith is astronomical (146.8 and 156.3 last week, respectively), so I expect a huge dose of both on Sunday. Aiding Hurts’ floor this week is his rushing ability, and I’m betting he gets a tuddy on the ground as well (no, seriously – Draft Kings, here I come). Big finish on tap for Jalen against the Giants.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

As much as the Bears fan in me wants to hate this kid, I have to acknowledge just how damn good he is. He’s in an offense that suits him and has talent all around him. He may be without one, possibly two, of those weapons (Reed and Wicks are both questionable as of this writing), which would hurt his value a bit. At the moment, it sort of feels like both suit up, actually, in what would seem to be a potential shootout (O/U sitting at 48). Love has had 3 top ten finishes in four starts this season and has put up 30 burgers in two of the last three. The matchup is solid also, as the Texans rank 22nd against opposing signal callers through six weeks. I love me some Love this week (it feels so dirty just saying it).

Honorable mention: Justin Herbert (LAC), Baker Mayfield (TB), Daniel Jones (NYG)

My Fades This Week

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

The Dolphins are really good against opposing QBs this season (1st, actually), and Anthony Richardson is really bad at being a quarterback. Sure, he has potential. Yes, he’s a gifted runner. Yes, he has weapons. But… have you watched him play? Buddy is seriously overwhelmed at the professional level. In his defense, it’s to be expected a bit, considering his trajectory. But here we are in a start/sit column, and I can’t recommend him until he shows me he’s “getting it.” Week 1 was why we all drafted him – three total touchdowns, 56 yards rushing, and 38.2 fantasy points. Since? 11.9, 6.75, and 5.95. To be fair, the last score was in a game he left injured, but that highlights another week-to-week concern I have with AR – he’s a HUGE injury risk. Nope. Not for me.

Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints

So I kind of love that Spencer Rattler came out and looked pretty decent for his first NFL start. He looked poised, confident, and in control. I mean, right out of the gate, his first snap as a pro, he’s flushed from the pocket and – while sprinting away from pressure – hit Juwan Johnson in stride with a dart. He kept the Saints right there in it through three quarters. Yes, he fumbled and threw two picks, but hey – jitters, am I right?  I actually don’t think the Saints are as bad off as people originally thought after the Carr injury news. But he gets Denver this week. The Denver defense is flat-out one of the best units in the league, causing fits for seasoned QBs such as Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Herbert already this season. Denver gets to the QB (4th highest pressure rate in the NFL), and they create turnovers. Also, the whole damn Saints offense is banged up this week, including Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara. Believe me – I need Spencer to have a week, so I hate this for me. But the matchup is just too much for my liking.

Honorable mention: Anthony Richardson (MIA), Justin Fields/Russell Wilson (PIT), Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

Running Backs

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable RBs on BYE this Week

D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Rico Dowdle

My Guys This Week

Chubba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Something clicked for Hubbard and the Panthers in Week 3 – Andy Dalton. Who would have thought that a change at QB would have brought about sweeping increases in value to every skill position on that offense? (insert raising hand emoji). Anywhosers, since Week 3, Hubbard has been on an ABSOLUTE touches tear – 26, 22, 17, and 23 (the NFL leader over that span). Carolina is currently leaning on their best offensive player. However, you have to wonder how much longer because Jonathon Brooks’ pending activation (Dave Canales said Monday that they’d be opening the 21-day window soon) is just around the corner. I don’t expect that to be this week, and as such, Hubbard will continue to eat. Washington ranks 21st against the RB position this season, so the matchup is just right. RB6 on the season will deliver a Top 15 performance this Sunday.

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard has actually been a bit of a touches-monster also, averaging just under 20 a game so far in 2024, which is kind of nutso to me because Tyjae Spears is such a talented back who deserves more touches himself. And back in draft season, we all kind of thought the split would be quite a bit different, didn’t we? It’s basically 67/33 at this point, with Pollard getting nearly 75% of the snaps against the Colts. What was I saying? Oh yeah, Pollard this week. With snap share trending towards Pollard, this week’s matchup in Buffalo looks even tastier. Buffalo ranks 31st against running backs, having been gouged in 5/6 games this year. Tennessee will have to control the clock to stand a chance, and Pollard would have to be a big part of that equation. Conversely, if they have to throw to stay in the game, I could see Pollard accumulating targets/catches as well. Ipso facto, I dig the game script either way, and I see a positive finish for Pollard.

Honorable mention: Tank Bigsby (JAX), Kyren Williams (LAR), J.K. Dobbins (LAC)

My Fades This Week

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

I know. I KNOW. Kenneth Walker III is football’s equivalent to Royce Lewis. When he’s healthy and out there, HE MASHES. Exhibit A – Walker III is RB13 on the season despite missing two games. Exhibit B – super sturdy floor, generally (hasn’t scored less than 10 points in a game all season. You can bank on those kind of numbers. I just don’t like the matchup this week. Atlanta has faced some decent backfields (Pittsburgh, Philly, New Orleans, Carolina) and come away as the sixth-ranked defense against RBs. Plus, Seattle has to travel farther than almost every team in the NFL, and jetlag is a thing (not that it’s a complete game changer, but the effects are there – it’s science). Seattle also has one of the worst-projected OL/DL matchups of the week (-4% line advantage, per PFF), so Walker III may not find much space to break loose against the Falcons. Walker may just be matchup-proof, but there are too many variables I don’t like this week 

for him or our fantasy lineups.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Entering 2024, this was Conner’s backfield. Through five weeks, it’s been Conner’s backfield. But something happened in Week 6 – we saw Conner’s snap share decrease to 28%, a season-low BY FAR. Conner still leads this backfield, and while I don’t think that’s in jeopardy, he’s been ceding snaps (and touches) to the other RBs on the roster. Benson and Demercado both have been at least 20% in two of the last three weeks, with Demercado coming in at 53% against the Packers. I’m certain Conner’s lack of production against the Packers was a game script and injury thing, as Green Bay dominated whistle to whistle. I am, however, still a bit concerned about Conner going forward – starting this week against a Chargers team that is fairly stout against the run (4th). I’ll admit they haven’t really faced a great back yet, and Pittsburgh kind of got to them a bit in Week 3. But they’ve only allowed one touchdown on the season, and that’s something I can’t overlook. With the Arizona backfield shaping into more of a timeshare than we anticipated (at least at this point in the season), I’m souring a bit on Conner as an option. Start him where you have to, but I expect he’ll be on the outside of the top 24 this week.

Honorable mention: Aaron Jones (MIN), Jordan Mason (KC), Bucky Irving (TB)