Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 15’s action, including TWO Monday night games.
But first…
Last Week: 11-9 (.550)
– QB: 6-5 (50%)
– RB: 5-5 (80%)
2024 NFL Season: 174-106 (.621)
– QB: 90-50 (64%)
– RB: 84-56 (60%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: v. New England Patriots
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 20 (17.40)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 32 (25.81)
Fantastic matchup this week against the reeling Patriots defense, the most generous unit to opposing QBs over the last month. Murray didn’t look as good as his 23 points last week (QB10), but for our purposes, what do we care? Take those two INTs off the board and he looks even better. After this week it’s soft spots like Carolina and the Rams, so we’re riding in those games also. Feels like Kyler rushes for a score in this one and finally gets Trey McBride that tuddy we’ve all been waiting for. Boom/bust this week is a real thing, but I’m going with the boom.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 32 (21.70)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 7 (15.78)
If you told me Justin Herbert has let you down the past two weeks, I’d let you. I’d even agree with you. Two tasty matchups away from home against the Falcons and Chiefs, and he finished QB30 and QB19, respectively. I’d understand if you went the other way on this one. But for some reason, I’m buying here. I am guessing he gets Ladd back this week, which will give the offense an uptick, and I’m not scared by the “improved” Bucs pass defense – games against Aidan O’Connell/Desmond Ridder (13.15) and Tommy DeVito (12.8) really bring the average down in a deceptive way. Oh, and I’m not worried about the injury – he’s playing (winning brings that out in players). I don’t think Herbert will be Top 5, but Top 12 is a solid bet.
Honorable mention: Josh Allen (BUF), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Brock Purdy (SF)
My Fades This Week
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under – 42.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 1 (13.70)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 9 (15.72)
Let me start my sit column with an obvious start – Jalen Hurts. Of course, we’re trotting him out there with our fantasy lives on the line, but I hate this matchup for Hurts (and some other Eagles) for a few reasons. First, the Pittsburgh defense is really good, and this projects to be more of a defensive game (O/U sitting at 42.5 as of this writing). Matchup aside, there is serious drama brewing in Philly, and it’s affecting everything – Jalen hasn’t surpassed 200 yards for the third straight game (108 against Carolina – yikes), they’re over-relying on Saquon Barkley (nearly 80 touches the past three games), and none of the pass-catchers have been productive (though having DeVonta Smith back is kind of big). Maybe they’ll take the week to get right and be just fine. Playing my gut here and not vibing with your boys, plus playing one of the stingiest defenses to the position, won’t mix well for the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. Think floor game, not ceiling.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 9 (16.00)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 12 (16.96)
I know. Here I am recommending another stud as a sit. And the same thing – if you go the other way, I would understand. Los Angeles is a pretty good defense against opposing QBs – just ask Patrick Mahomes (or Kirk Cousins and his four interceptions against them). Take out Burrow and Jackson, and the numbers look even better for the Chargers defense. Evans is back, yes; McMillan looks capable, sure; and Otten has flashed as a solo act. But I just haven’t been as impressed with Baker since Week 9. Each of the five matchups were fairly soft, yet he only produced two finishes during that time over 20 points, finishing QB16, QB23, QB8, QB28, and QB8, respectively. Chances are you don’t have better, so you’re rolling him and hoping for the best. Unfortunately, I don’t expect it this week.
Honorable mention: Caleb Williams (CHI), Mac Jones (JAX), Kirk Cousins (ATL)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Opponent: v. Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 29 (23.20)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 20 (22.70)
What a difference a week makes! Long. Audible. Sigh. Unfortunately for the Panthers, prized rookie Jonathon Brooks re-tore the same ACL he had been rehabbing and is done for the year (bummer on several levels). The result – this backfield is allllll Chuba’s now, and we know he knows what to do with it (30 touches, 107 yards, and a touchdown against the Eagles, good for RB9). This week he gets a Dallas defense that just made Chase Brown RB6 on the week in front of a national audience. Bryce Young is looking a lot better this past month, and Adam Thielen is back, both of which can actually open things up even more for Hubbard. With no competition in the backfield for touches, he’s set to eat for the foreseeable future.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 32 (27.00)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 24 (24.80)
The Dallas Cowboys have finally realized the weapon they have in Rico Dowdle, and just in time for us to ride him to a fantasy championship. He’s been given 66 touches over the last three weeks (seven of which are of the reception variety), returning 362 total yards (329 rushing) with one touchdown. That one touchdown isn’t necessarily a problem, but we could for sure use more in the fantasy playoffs. I’m expecting him to get it this week against a Panthers rush defense that has been terrible against opposing running backs all season. He’s got a tough matchup in Week 17, but it should be cruise control for us until then.
Honorable mention: Bijan Robinson (ATL), Derrick Henry (BAL), Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN)
My Fades This Week
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Opponent: @ Detroit Lions
Over/Under – 54.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 2 (15.00)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 1 (11.28)
If you’ve followed this column regularly (you’re much appreciated), you may have noticed a few references to the Bills shifting to a run-first offense, which sounds really good for James Cook. Cook has, in fact, returned great numbers for us in season-long – 927 total yards,12 touchdowns (good for 6th in the league), and nearly 200 points through Week 14, good for RB12 on the season. He’s hit our expectations, right? I’d say that’s fair. But if you shrink that sample size to the past seven games, we see a stat line that is super inconsistent – and that concerns me for the playoffs. In four of the aforementioned seven games, Cook has rushed for less than 50 yards, though he did salvage a few of those days with receptions and touchdowns. Cook may be just fine this week, but a matchup against arguably the toughest defense for RB scoring feels like a bust game, and I just don’t trust it.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 6 (16.20)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 21 (22.78)
Bucky Irving has been phenomenal this season, he really has. And just when he really started cooking for us, injury strikes. He suited up last week, but as I feared, he reinjured his back/hip early on (super common with that injury) and never returned to the game. Rachaad White flourished in his absence, though I don’t expect the same results for him this week. But let’s stick to Bucky. There’s no indication at this point that he’s sitting, though my guess would be that he does. Resting him for another week makes too much sense, especially since they’re pushing for the division or at least a playoff berth. Even if he doesn’t sit, the Chargers (save for Bijan and Derrick) have done a fantastic job against opposing running backs, yielding nearly three points below the league average against the position. It’s the playoffs, and we need him, but I don’t think Irving will be there for us. And if he is, he will be limited by workload management and matchup.
Honorable mention: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), D’Andre Swift (CHI), Tony Pollard (TEN)