Fantasy Football Week 14 Start/Sit: QB/RB
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 14’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 13-7 (.650)
– QB: 5-5 (50%)
– RB: 8-2 (80%)
2024 NFL Season: 150-90 (.625)
– QB: 84-46 (64%)
– RB: 79-51 (60%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable QBs on BYE this Week
Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Drake Maye
My Guys This Week
Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: v. Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 30 (21.90)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 32 (28.28)
What has the world come to? Here, I am recommending Cooper Rush this week, and I don’t know how to feel about that. But hear me out. He’s dropped nearly 25 points in two of the past three games, his next three games are soft as hell (Cincinnati, Carolina, Tampa Bay), and he has solid pass-catcher talent around him. I won’t say he’s going to win your league for you, but I will say he can for sure help you get closer to it. The Bengals last three weeks v. QBs – 43.8, 31.3, 42.7. Even if he only gives us 25. Cooper is top 12 this week.
Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 46.0
Opponent Rank v. QB: 31 (22.50)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 26 (19.44)
Yep. It’s O’Connell Time, baby! (Please don’t close the article). In his first game back, Aidan dropped 30 on the Chiefs on Black Friday – 340 yards and two tuddys. Chef’s kiss! And we love him this week also, right? It’s the Buccaneers, who are next to last against the position season-long with several games above 30 points allowed (about half their games, in fact). Tampa’s offense is high octane, so the Raiders – like every other team playing the Bucs – will have to throw to keep up (last five games pass attempts v. TB – 46, 32, 36, 44, 29).
Honorable mention: Josh Allen (BUF), Joe Burrow (CIN), Sam Darnold (MIN)
My Fades This Week
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Opponent: v. New York Jets
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 9 (16.00)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 31 (23.05)
It seems silly to recommend Tua as a sit while he’s on such a heater, but I’m playing my gut here. The Jets have been susceptible to the position over the last four games (seven, really), and yes, they have been gouged by good QBs. I really don’t have a logical reason to sit him, but here we are. My gut tells me this week Sauce & Co. have a get-right game, and maybe that’s because they graded so well against the Seahawks this past Sunday – Sauce (81.8%), Reed (62.5%) and Williams (42.8%) were among the best in lockdown rate, per PFF. Did they straighten out over the bye week? Possibly. My gut says yes, and I’m betting Tua will be outside the top QB finishes for the week as a result.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: @ Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under – 45.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 16 (16.60)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 12 (15.74)
I don’t know what’s wrong with Kirk Cousins. If I did, I wouldn’t be writing start/sit articles. I just know something is wrong. Four interceptions against the Chargers. FOUR. And this has been ongoing all season long. If you take out his 50-point game against the Bucs and his 40-point performance against, well, the Bucs, Cousins has been terrible for us this season. For their part, I do think the Chargers played a fantastic game against Cousins. But even in games where he does well for us (and there have only been four of those), he’s looked off. And that team is stacked with offensive talent, so there’s really no excuse. Minnesota is just average against QBs, but I bet they look like world-beaters on Sunday against Kirkers.
Honorable mention: Aaron Rodgers (NYJ). Derek Carr (NO), Bryce Young (CAR)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable RBs on BYE this Week
Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Brian Robinson Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams
My Guys This Week
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: v. Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 29 (23.20)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 16 (20.38)
I have picked on the Cowboys here since Derrick Henry made me see the light, and I continue to do so this week. Great matchup for Brown in a game with the biggest O/U for the week in front of a national audience. Since taking over as HIM in this backfield, Brown has shined, returning four top-10 finishes in four chances (RB5, RB4, RB10, RB10). Against a soft Dallas run defense, he’s absolutely going to make it five in a row. Yes, Dallas’s defense has been better against RBs as of late, but I’m not worried about that necessarily. This offense is tops in the league, and Brown is a big part of that. Khalil Herbert is there, but he’s done nothing since coming to town. This is the Chase Brown show, all day.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: v. Buffalo Bills
Over/Under – 49.0
Opponent Rank v. RB: 30 (24.20)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 13 (19.33)
Another huge O/U has me chomping at the bit on this one. Williams (RB9 on the season) has been steady-Freddy all year, presenting one of the sturdiest floors out there. As expected, he is ceding more carries to Blake Corum lately (62% to 32% snap share last week), but so what. Williams is damn effective with his touches, and he gets into the endzone regularly (10 tuddys on the year). Buffalo has been pretty generous to RBs in 2024, particularly to really good ones (Achane, Conner, Hall, Henry, etc.), and Williams fits that mold. My guess is LA controls the clock in this tilt with the run, and Williams should be able to bank on that. Potential for a top-10 finish this week.
Honorable mention: Saquon Barkley (PHI), D’Andre Swift (CHI), Breece Hall (NYJ)
My Fades This Week
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Opponent: @ Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under – 46.0
Opponent Rank v. RB: 4 (15.70)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 9 (18.53)
Chuba Hubbard has been phenomenal this season, and if you drafted him or scooped him via FA, kudos. From Weeks 2-12, Chuba was counted on, and he delivered for us (six top 10 finishes in 10 games and was only outside the top 24 just once). In fact, I’d be willing to bet he’s one of the main players on most playoff teams. Unfortunately, that ride may be over. Jonathon Brooks is back, and it looks like the Panthers are intent on getting a look. In Brooks’ first week back, Chuba had his highest snap share of the season (89%), but last week it dipped to 79%, while Brooks saw his share rise from 5% the week before to 21%. More concerning, the touches were almost even – 12 (all carries) for Hubbard and nine (six carries and three receptions) for Brooks. And friends, Brooks looks good enough to not only stick, but turn this backfield into a true timeshare. Plus, it’s the Eagles this week, and they’re just about the best team in football. It was fun while it lasted, Chuba.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: @ Tennessee Titans
Over/Under – 39.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 17 (20.60)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 17 (20.83)
Etienne Jr. is back to being the top dog in this backfield, but it’s so mehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. He hasn’t produced a double-digit points game since Week 3, and hasn’t finished above RB29 in any game since. Granted, Tank Bigbsy (who is also an advisable sit) was in there for a few good games, but the storyline doesn’t change. The Jacksonville offense is a mess, and after Lawrence got his bell rung against the Texans (which was brutal, by the way), it’s Mac Jones again, which doesn’t bode well for anyone. Tennessee is middle of the pack against RBs, so the matchup isn’t daunting. These guys just aren’t good right now, sorry to say, and I’m willing to bet you have better on the bench or the wire.
Honorable mention: Josh Jacobs (GB), Aaron Jones (MIN), Isiah Pacheco (KC)
