So, I’m really excited about both of these position groups this season. The NFL is absolutely a passing league, and the most exciting players on the field each week are the pass catchers. This is the deepest either position has been in years, and I’m here for it.
I’ll be dropping in here each and every week to give my start/sit recos for each of the skill positions to help you make those gameday decisions. LFG with the WRs and the TEs!
The Don’t Get Cute Club. Start these guys every week:
– CeeDee Lamb
– Tyreek Hill
– Justin Jefferson
– Amon-Ra St. Brown
– Jamar Chase (especially once this contract business is behind him)
– A.J. Brown
In my writeup on the New Orleans Saints, I pitched the case for Olave as a breakout this season. This recommendation may be about his upside or the fact that the Saints are mostly devoid of pass-catchers outside of Kamara and Olave. The volume is what I’m chasing here, and we could see 10+ targets go his way this week. Reference the aforementioned article, and you’ll see that Olave is an air-yards monster, and if those turn into catches, they turn into points. It looks like Rashid Shaheed will suit up this week, and while he has proclaimed himself ready, he may still be a bit hampered. Give me Olave for 6+ catches, 80+ yards, and a touchdown to open the season.
I absolutely love the matchup here. Washington allowed the most PPG to opposing wideouts in 2023 (36.3), and they did little to help the backfield in the offseason. The biggest beneficiary of this generosity will be Mike Evans, who finished last season as WR7. Evans is a target monster who caught 90% of his catchable passes, per FantasyPros. Baker Mayfield broke out in a big way last year, and Evans was his guy. That doesn’t change for 2024, and this matchup is tasty.
Honorable mention: DeVonta Smith, Malik Nabers, Davante Adams
This is entirely matchup-based because I love these guys this season. And there is always potential for one – or both – to break off a big play. But it’s the Jets this week, and they were the stingiest defense against opposing WRs BY FAR. Sauce Gardner (3rd of 127), Michael Carter II (12th), and D.J. Reed (16th) all graded fantastically last season, per PFF. As a matter of fact, this defense is stacked at all three levels. So even if Aiyuk or Samuel get a carry or two, their chances aren’t any better. Big things are ahead for both receivers; this is just a damn tough week.
Much of the same here – matchup is a nightmare. Zay Flowers is going to have a great season; it’ll just have to start next week. The Ravens kick off the NFL season Thursday night (I have a bugaboo about Thursday games anyway), and the Ravens passing attack will face a stiff test. L’Jarius Sneed is gone, so I’ll give you that so we may see a more vulnerable Chiefs secondary. But Flowers will most certainly draw Trent McDuffie as a shadow, and McDuffie was a Pro-Bowler as a nickel in 2023. I expect the coverage skills to translate to the outside, and Flowers will have his hands full. Some of us (yes, us) will have to start him; just don’t expect too much.
Honorable mention: Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper
The Let’s Not Overthink Club. Start these guys every week:
– Sam LaPorta
– Travis Kelce
– Trey McBride
– Mark Andrews
Gimme some Taysom! And I don’t know precisely why, but I expect a very good season out of Mr. Hill. He was utilized all over the place this preseason, and I do expect that to be a thing in the regular season as well. Hill draws the Panthers, who were actually pretty decent against tight ends last year. But Taysom isn’t just a tight end, and he’s going to get opportunities at RB, WR, and most likely QB. As the good Dr. Roto noted – Dennis Allen loves Hill, and so should we. Hill won’t hit the ceiling each week, but I expect good things here.
Hunter Henry had several productive weeks in 2023, but he had some clunkers as well (8 of 14 weeks went for less than 5 points). Going with my gut here against the Bengals, who allowed 11.5 points per game to the position (fourth worst, per FanDuel). I am not in love with the QB situation in New England this season, and Jacoby Brissett has the keys to start the season. JB throws to his tight ends 25% of the time, which represents a decent target share opportunity for Henry, who sits atop the Patriot depth chart with no real challengers. Henry always has the sleeper tag going into drafts, but if he can avoid injury and the QBs can sustain some consistency, there is a wee bit of breakout potential. He is listed as questionable and dealt with a little injury during camp. Henry has since returned to practice and should be good to go for the tilt with the Bengals.
Honorable mention: Pat Freiermuth, Noah Fant, Dalton Shultz
Yep. Had to. Sorry, my Bears brethren. But we got to sit Cole this week. Besides being option #5 (most likely) in this offense – which translates to about four targets per game – the Bears face the Titans this week, who did a fantastic job against tight ends in 2023 (third best in PPG allowed). The truth is, we’re lobbing educated guesses here, so it remains to be seen how much Kmet will be utilized overall this season. With three fantastic WRs on the roster and a new pass-catching RB in town (D’Andre Swift) who has looked legit as a receiver this preseason, I’m just not thrilled about the matchup this week. I hold out hope for a breakout, but – long audible sigh – the odds are against it.
The New England Patriots didn’t do a lot well in 2023, but they did a damn fine job limiting tight ends in fantasy (7.1 PPG, #1 in the league). There are not many changes on this defense, other than Matt Judon being shipped to the Falcons (we just missed him, Bears fans), who was actually pretty good in coverage, per PFF. I’m guessing that even with Judon gone, they’ll attack the TE position in the same way. Plus, Joe Burrow hasn’t historically targeted his tight ends – in 10 games in 2023, Burrow targeted tight ends 16.4% of the time, and his top TE only 10% of the time (though those numbers trended up in his last few games). But, an interesting nugget from the preseason usage may snakebite me on this one – Gesicki had a 71% route participation with Burrow on the field, playing 57% of his snaps from the slot (per Dwain McFarland, Fantasy Life). That’s a lot of route participation, which COULD bode well for Gesicki. Unfortunately for Mike, he didn’t see one target. Not one. I like his skillset, just not his matchup or his role with this team. Disclaimer – If Ja’Marr Chase sits in this one, I’d bump Gesicki up a bit.
Honorable mention: Luke Musgrave, Brock Bowers, Hayden Hurst