It is finally here, my guys and gals! Week 1 of the NFL season, and HERE WE GO! The preseason was full of drama, as it always is. Hard Knocks has gotten us up close and personal with the Chicago Bears and all the hype surrounding 1.1. The camp battles have played out for all 32 teams, the 53’s are all set, and the practice squads are filled out. All that is left is for Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker to get this party started on Thursday!
We are coming out of THE BIGGEST DRAFT WEEKEND OF THE YEAR! How did y’all do? Did you get your guys? How many times were you sniped? Do you love your teams? Also, and this is a question I posed in one of my big leagues – which pick did you hate? And don’t give the same cockamamie answer my guys gave me – “I love my whole team!” BS. Maybe even HS. The team overall, yes. I get that. But don’t tell me you loved EVERY pick. You didn’t. I know it, you know it. For me, it was Keenan Allen in R8. Considering the crowded room of Bears pass catchers and that I left Chase Brown sitting there when I could have used another RB, it crept into my head that the Bengals only ran the ball 36.5% of the time last year (nearly last in the league). I was doing two drafts, the clock was ticking on both, and I hit the damn button. Meh. Maybe Kee will dominate. And I know some of you actually do love every pick you make and that’s fantastic. That’s what makes Draft Day so special.
Anywhosers! I’ll be dropping in here each and every week to give my start/sit recommendations for each of the skill positions to help you make those gameday decisions. Up first, the QBs and RBs!
A quick note: Start your studs. Don’t Get cute. These horses are starts every week, and I’ll update this list each week as necessary:
– Josh Allen
– Patrick Mahomes
– Lamar Jackson
– Jalen Hurts
I’ll also generally stay away from obvious starts – players you drafted and expect to start every week. C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, etc. I will recommend them as a “sit” when appropriate, but we’re not going to overthink these guys, either.
Goff and the Lions get the Rams up first. Last season, the Rams allowed 5th most points to the QB position. They have revamped their defensive backfield a bit, but they still don’t scare me, especially with Goff slinging at home, where he averaged 280 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game last season. He’s loaded with weapons everywhere he looks, and I expect a HUGE day for him to open the season.
Can you say SHOOTOUT? Matt Stafford is one of my all-time favorite quarterbacks, and the man can still get it done. Age and injury may be rearing their ugly heads, but this matchup is too tasty for me to neglect. Remember what I said about PPG allowed to QBs by the Rams? The Lions were actually worse last year. We know the Rams are planning to run more this year, I get it. But this is going to be a high-scoring affair (with an early O/U sitting at 51.5 per FanDuel), and Stafford is going to have to let her rip. While not as loaded as the Lions, Stafford does boast two of the top WRs in the league – Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Don’t hesitate on this one. Get “The Wizard” into your lineups.
Honorable mention: Baker Mayfield. Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith
This one seems fairly obvious to me. A-a-ron will certainly be a bot rusty to real game action, and he’s going against one of the toughest defenses in the National Football League (he surrendered an average of 15.2 PPG to the position in 2023, per FanDuel). I love Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, but after that the Jets aren’t Jet’n, in my opinion. The J-E-T-S did add Mike Williams via free agency and drafted Malachi Corley in the third round back in April. And yes, Aaron Rodgers has done more with less, but this version of A-Rod is a little older (age 40 season) and coming off a major injury. Plus, his performance dipped a bit in 2022. So until he proves me wrong, I’m skeptical. I think he does just fine this season, but I’m sitting him in Week 1.
I told you I’d mention these guys when warranted, and it’s warranted for Dak this week. The Cowboys travel to Cleveland this week to face what is widely considered one of the best defensive units in the league. A unit that is particularly stingy to the QB position (14.4 PPG, per FanDuel). Of concern to me also is the lack of build-up for all-world WR CeeDee Lamb, who missed all of camp while holding out for the BAG. And honestly, there’s not much behind CeeDee, with all due respect to Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson. I do like him season-long and waxed poetic about him early this offseason. My money says this is a defensive game (42.5 O/U), and neither QB does all that well, which by proxy also makes Deshaun Watson a sit.
Honorable mention: Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Kirk Cousins
Same thing here – Start your studs. You didn’t draft them to overthink it each week:
– Christian McCaffery
– Bijan Robinson
– Breece Hall
– Jonathon Taylor
– Jahmyr Gibbs
Kamara at home has always been a good bet, and let’s be honest – there’s no one else to challenge him for significant touches. Kendre Miller has been lost for the season; I’m not excited about Jamaal Williams (see: not excited about Jamaal Williams), and Taysom Hill is a gimmick (albeit it an effective one). And while the aforementioned Hill will absolutely vulture touchdowns here (as may Williams), volume is EVERYTHING in our game, and Kamara will have it. The Panthers allowed the 4th most points to the position per game last season (23.4); though, while there were some improvements on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, I don’t think they did enough to change the narrative.
Following the emergent theme, the Colts were terrible against the run last season and equally as terrible in allowing points per game to the RB position (23.6). Mixon is on a new team for 2024 – a team lacking of any real threat to his volume. This is a passing team, acknowledged, and thankfully, Mixon is adept at catching passes out of the backfield. Mixon is as good a bet for 20 touches a game as nearly any player in the league, and against the Colts that will play. His floor is about as sturdy as it gets, though I expect a ceiling game from Mixon this week. I’m not huge on him season-long, though I’d be willing to eat crow if I’m wrong.
Honorable mention: Rachaad White, De’Von Achane, Aaron Jones
I don’t expect the Commanders to be good at running the football this season, outside of Jayden Daniels. Robinson has never impressed me, and he’s now going to split carries with both Daniels and Austin Ekeler, the latter of which will almost certainly take touches (primarily catches) from Robinson. In addition, the Buccaneers were fourth-best against the run last season (15.5 PPG), and this isn’t the week for BRJ. I’ll admit he has a decent floor and will provide some value at the flex spots – especially through bye-weeks.
I wrote an article about the Steelers backfield earlier this offseason where I wasn’t overly optimistic about Najee Harris. Jaylen Warren is the better back, and I hope we’ll finally get to see that this season. This week, Harris and the Steelers get the Falcons, who ranked 5th in PPG allowed to RBs last season. Now, if Warren sits (he’s practicing, though he’s still listed as questionable in this writing), Harris gets a bump. My guess is Warren plays, and the split is 60/40 for touches, which means for either to factor, there will most likely have to be a touchdown. Harris doesn’t catch the ball exceedingly well, so his value dips even further in PPR leagues.
Honorable mention: David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, James Conner
