Welcome back, friends! The 2025 NFL Season kicks off this week, and it’s about damn time. We’ve waited all year for this (well, what has felt like a year), and after August drafts filled with hype and fluff and sleepers and busts, we’re about to find out if our roster GM’ing will pay off. You drafted your guys, and I’m back to tell you who to play and who to fade each Sunday of the regular season. This is year two of this experiment for me, and I couldn’t be more excited to be back at it for Dr. Roto and the gang.
Before we dive in, a few guiding principles. My recommendations are based on a mix of factors: player trends, schemes and personnel, matchup favorability, and a look towards the desert (Vegas) highlight shootout potential. Of course, and you’re all savvy, so I don’t need to belittle this point, but start your studs. Every week. Don’t get cute. Players like Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, and Brock Bowers should always be in your lineup, regardless of their opponent. As a rule of thumb, these are the guys you drafted in the first five rounds. To quote Coach Moore (Draft Day): “Don’t overthink this like your dad would have.” So don’t expect to see these layups in the column unless I expect a gargantuan performance out of them.
Also, maybe you remember this from last season: I keep receipts. Each week, I’ll hit you with my record for each position from the week before. If I tell you that guys will start playing favorably to their expectations, I count it as a win. If they don’t, it’s a loss. Simple as that. I’ll also give you data each week that will be helpful outside my recos. Things like the matchup spectrum, where I rank all 32 teams in terms of matchups vs. positions.
With all that out of the way, and without further ado, here are my plays and fades for Week 1 of the 2025 season’s Sunday matchups.
QUARTERBACKS
Play: Bo Nix (DEN) — Sean Payton’s script should give Nix a high percentage of first-read throws and defined shot plays off play-action. With Sutton as the chain-mover and a deep RB room to keep fronts honest, Nix profiles as a high-floor QB2 with QB1 upside in a clean pocket.
Play: Baker Mayfield (TB) — Lots of viable targets and an aggressive game script give Mayfield multiple paths to a usable fantasy line. If the score pushes into the mid-40s or higher, his downfield YOLOs become plus-EV swings.
Fade: Justin Fields (NYJ) — A new system, a horrible matchup, and lack of pass catching playmakers. Plus it’s Justin Fields, and we know his potential comes on the ground. I think overall he’s a sleeper play on the season, but the floor is lower than managers want in Week 1.
Fade: C.J. Stroud (HOU) — I don’t love the matchup, especially on the road. Nico is a horse, but who else is there? Expect a “points, not style” script that caps Stroud’s ceiling.
RUNNING BACKS
Play: Alvin Kamara (NO) — Even if carries are modest, Kamara’s reception equity and usage give him a bankable PPR floor. Inside the 10, he still gets the first look on designed touches in this scheme.
Play: Kyren Williams (LAR) — Williams’ snap share plus red-zone preference in McVay’s menu makes him a volume bet you can trust. Neutral-to-positive game script only amplifies his 18–22 touch path.
Fade: James Cook (BUF) — Cook’s touchdown path is murky with goal-line work still at risk of being siphoned (hello, Ray Davis). Plus the matchup isn’t fabulous, and game script points to passing, so you’re banking on receptions here and that just isn’t Cook’s bag, baby.
Fade: Tony Pollard (TEN) — I usually chase volume in my plays, and Pollard will have plenty of that. But it’s Denver, and they are stupid good against the run. Also, Pollard just hasn’t been nearly as explosive since the knee injury, so the possibility of a splash play is basically zero.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Play: Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) —JSN will be a volume monster this season. Don’t be surprised if he leads the league in targets and receptions. He’s live for 8–10 targets a week with YAC upside. Giddy up.
Play: Terry McLaurin (WAS) — The man got the bag, and thank god, because Jayden needed him. Yes, Deebo is there, but Terry is the guy. He’s the cleanest target-share bet on the roster.
Fade: Garrett Wilson (NYJ) — The matchup is terrifying, making Wilson’s road to a spike week narrow without explosive plays. And you saw my reco on his QB, right? Not this week.
Fade: Travis Hunter (JAX) — Tremendous talent, but rookie volatility plus an uncertain volume make him a boom-bust swing in Week 1. Let the role settle before you chase the ceiling.
TIGHT ENDS
Play: Evan Engram (DEN) — Engram’s route volume and middle-of-field usage survive most matchups; he’s a rhythm valve who stacks easy PPR points.
Play: David Njoku (CLE) —Njoku’s usage with Flacco at the helm is phenomenal for a TE. He’s live for a TD with 5–7 target upside.
Fade: Colston Loveland (CHI) — Rookie tight ends face snap-share and assignment variability. The kid is a future stud, but until we see stable usage, he’s a prayer over safer volume options.
Fade: Chig Okonkwo (TEN) — Word is he developed outstanding chemistry with Ward over the summer, so that’s exciting. But it’s Denver (see my reco for Pollard), and Denver was one of the best units against the position last season.
