Before we dive in, a few guiding principles. My recommendations each week are based on a mix of factors: player trends, schemes and personnel, matchup favorability, and a look towards the desert (Vegas) highlight shootout potential. Of course, and since you’re all savvy, I don’t need to belabor this point, but start your studs. Every week. Don’t get cute. Players like Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, and Brock Bowers should always be in your lineup, regardless of their opponent. As a rule of thumb, these are the guys you drafted in the first five rounds. To quote Coach Moore (Draft Day): “Don’t overthink this like your dad would have.” So you shouldn’t expect to see these layups in the column unless I expect a gargantuan performance out of them.
Also, I keep receipts. Each week, I’ll hit you with my record for each position from the week before. If guys I tell you to start play favorably to their expectations, I count it as a win. If they don’t, it’s a loss. Simple as that. I’ll also give you data each week that will be helpful outside my recos. Things like the matchup spectrum, where I rank all 32 teams in terms of matchups vs. positions.
WEEK 4 RECEIPTS
I went 10–6 overall on my Week 4 start/sit card.
Week 4 Start-Sit Record
Drake Maye was a bull’s-eye start – 82% completions, 2 TDs, and a rushing score in a 42-13 Pats romp over Carolina. Caleb Williams didn’t smash in fantasy, but the process note holds: he ripped a 27-yard strike to Rome Odunze, and the Bears stole it on Josh Blackwell’s game-saving block. Calling Rome a start landed – his fifth TD of the season was that same 27-yarder. Davante Adams, as a star,t also paid – 4/56/1 for the Rams vs. Indy – even if Tutu’s long one stole the headlines. On sits: Jake Browning was the right fade in a 28-3 no-show (125 pass yards as Denver throttled Cincy), and Sam LaPorta’s modest 3-for-39 made the bench call. I did whiff on Jordan Addison – 114 yards in Dublin – plus Carson Wentz, who volume’d his way to 350 yards and 2 TDs despite six sacks and two picks. Tucker Kraft was a near-miss start – quiet day outside of a red-zone grab that ended inches short in that 40-40 Packers-Cowboys track meet. And the Jeudy sit cleared: Cleveland’s sputtering offense left him at just 3-for-48 in a 34-10 loss to Detroit, while Quinshon Judkins (TD, 82 rush yards) burned my fade and is looking like a must-start every week.
Week 4: 10-6 (62.5%)
Season: 35-29 (54.7%)
WEEK 5 STARTS/SITS
QUARTERBACKS
Start: Justin Fields (NYJ vs DAL): I’m starting Fields because the Jets can blunt Dallas’ rush with RPO, quick game, and designed keepers that lock in his floor. In a ~47.5 total with a tight spread, late scramble/rush attempts juice the ceiling. I’m playing the rushing insulation and red-zone keeper equity.
Start: Daniel Jones (IND vs LVR): I like Jones at home with play-action and sprint-outs to neutralize Crosby/Koonce and stack efficient throws. The rushing element gives me a built-in floor. In a ~47.5 total as a favorite, I’m chasing multi-TD upside.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence (JAC vs KC): I’m sitting Lawrence against Spags’ simulated pressure and late safety rotations that squeeze windows on third down. In a middling ~46.5 total, I’m not paying for a squeaky efficiency line. I’ll pivot to a similar tier with a cleaner projected outcome.
Sit: Sam Darnold (SEA vs TB): I’m benching Darnold because Tampa’s split-safety looks force checkdowns and sap YAC. Even with a modest ~44.5 total at home, the red-zone path is thin. I’d stream elsewhere unless I’m desperate in deep superflex.
RUNNING BACKS
Start: Jonathan Taylor (IND vs LVR): I’m in on JT with Indy favored and a balanced ~47.5 total supporting sustained drives. The gap/zone blend should pop second-level lanes against this front. I’m projecting 18+ touches with prime goal-line equity.
Start: Trey Benson (ARI vs TEN): I’m starting Benson as a positive-script closer for a home favorite (roughly a TD). If Tennessee stalls, fourth-quarter carries stack in a ~41.5 total. That’s RB2 volume with upside.
Sit: Derrick Henry (BAL vs HOU): Henry isn’t the same; that’s basically it, and I’m fading him until he punishes me for it. Baltimore may tilt pass-lean on money downs versus Houston’s front, and the non-targeted snaps get punished in catch-up. Without a TD in a mid-40s total, the floor feels fragile.
Sit: Tony Pollard (TEN @ ARI): I’m benching Pollard as a road dog where every carry is precious and long-down snaps can drift away. If the game script flips negative, the two-minute work gets messy. He’s touchdown-dependent this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start: Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs DAL): I’m starting Wilson to attack man coverage with isolation routes and deep crossers off play-action. In a ~47.5 total, WR1 usage plus red-zone slants gives me multiple outs. I’m playing talent and leverage.
Start: Jakobi Meyers (LV @ IND): I’m rolling with Meyers versus Indy’s zone that funnels sit-downs and option routes. I expect 7–9 chain-moving targets in a top-half total. That’s a sturdy WR2/3 floor.
Sit: Cooper Kupp (SEA vs TB): I’m benching Kupp because the Bucs’ pattern-match narrows option-route windows and can divert looks to backs/TEs. If Seattle leans run as a small home fave, volume and red-zone chances tighten. I’d chase a higher-ceiling spot.
Sit: Ladd McConkey (LAC vs WAS): Like Henry, I’m sitting until Ladd makes me regret it. I’m out this week against Washington’s two-high shells that cap explosives and force patience. Target consolidation is volatile, and red-zone work may skew elsewhere (hello, Keenan). Boom-bust bench until the environment improves.
TIGHT ENDS
Start: Hunter Henry (NE @ BUF): I’m starting Henry because a negative script versus a favored Bills team funnels late targets. Play-action seams and proven red-zone usage give me volume or TD paths. In a slate-high total, he’s a low-end TE1.
Start: Tyler Warren (IND vs LVR): I’m smashing Warren for play-action leaks near the goal line, where his box-out game wins. Even on modest volume, the targets are high value. I’m hunting a touchdown, here.
Sit: Mike Gesicki (CIN vs DET): I’m benching Gesicki with Detroit’s nickel/safety leverage, squeezing TE YAC into contested sideline stuff. As an underdog, Cincy likely funnels to perimeter WRs in chase mode. I’m only starting him if I’m praying for a busted-coverage TD, which I’m not.
Sit: Dallas Goedert (PHI vs DEN): I’m sitting Goedert because Denver is really good at bracketing the middle and forcing the ball outside. I’d need a splash play, which he hasn’t consistently shown this year. Great player; wrong spot for the ceiling.
