Before we dive in, a few guiding principles. My recommendations each week are based on a mix of factors: player trends, schemes and personnel, matchup favorability, and a look towards the desert (Vegas) highlight shootout potential. Of course, and since you’re all savvy, I don’t need to belabor this point, but start your studs. Every week. Don’t get cute. Players like Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, and Brock Bowers should always be in your lineup, regardless of their opponent. As a rule of thumb, these are the guys you drafted in the first five rounds. To quote Coach Moore (Draft Day): “Don’t overthink this like your dad would have.” So you shouldn’t expect to see these layups in the column unless I expect a gargantuan performance out of them.
Also, I keep receipts. Each week, I’ll hit you with my record for each position from the week before. If guys I tell you to start play favorably to their expectations, I count it as a win. If they don’t, it’s a loss. Simple as that. I’ll also give you data each week that will be helpful outside my recos. Things like the matchup spectrum, where I rank all 32 teams in terms of matchups vs. positions.
WEEK 3 RECEIPTS
I wrapped Week 3 at 9-7: QB 2-2, RB 3-1, WR 0-4, TE 4-0, and the receipts tell a story. At QB, rolling with Dak Prescott @ CHI and Jared Goff @ BAL matched the script Vegas teased, while fading Matthew Stafford in Philly and Joe Flacco vs. Green Bay was a split (one slogged as expected, the other snuck in late chunk plays to ding me). RB was my lever: Javonte Williams @ LAC and Jordan Mason vs. CIN paid off early-down/goal-line volume; the lone L was classic hot-hand theft – right read, wrong touchdown. WR was a bad-beat buffet. I chased Zay Flowers’ schemed YAC and Terry McLaurin’s perimeter edge and got air, while my fades – DJ Moore vs. DAL and Chris Olave @ SEA – said “hold my beer” and said to hell with my sit call. The TEs cleaned it up for me: Tyler Warren @ NE kept the PPR floor humming, T.J. Hockenson vs. CIN vacuumed underneath, and sitting Evan Engram @ LAC and Cade Otton vs. NYJ was spot-on.. Net-net: listening to totals and roles worked everywhere but wideout, where variance stiff-armed me at the one-yard line.
Week 3: 9-7 (56.3%)
Season: 25-23 (52.1%)
WEEK 3 STARTS/SITS
QUARTERBACKS
Start: Caleb Williams (CHI @ LVR) I’m leaning in because this sets up as an up-tempo game with plenty of red-zone trips. His legs and second-reaction throws give me multiple paths to touchdowns, even if the pocket gets messy.
Start: Drake Maye (NE vs CAR) At home in a manageable script, I expect steady drives and play-action chances near the goal line. The short fields plus designed keepers give me a safe floor and a clean two-TD path.
Sit: Jake Browning (CIN @ DEN) On the road in a likely grind, I’m not chasing a ceiling that depends on flawless protection. If he falls behind, the pressure-to-mistake risk climbs and the touchdown chances shrink.
Sit: Carson Wentz (MIN @ PIT) This projects as a slow, field-position game where checkdowns rule. I don’t want to bank on low-value throws and stalled drives.
RUNNING BACKS
Start: Omarion Hampton (LAC @ NYG) I’m playing him for two reasons: a positive script with sustained possessions and short-yardage looks, and this backfield is all his. Even if the pace dips, 18-plus touches and interior goal-line chances are firmly in play.
Start: Cam Skattebo (NYG vs LAC) With Tracy out, the touches belong to Cam, who’s been great so far. I also like the usage insulation – early downs plus pass-game involvement if the flow flips. Screens and draws against space-heavy fronts can stack PPR points without needing a long run.
Sit: Quinshon Judkins (CLE @ DET) If (when) the Browns are pushed off schedule, the neutral-situation carries disappear fast. Without consistent red-zone trips, you’re betting on a broken play more than a bankable workload.
Sit: Chase Brown (CIN @ DEN) Since Burrow went down, the offense has flatlined – there’s just not enough juice here to bet on rushing volume or scoring chances. I’m not buying until he forces me with a real workload and real production.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start: Rome Odunze (CHI @ LVR) I’m in because the Raiders secondary is brutal, and this game should create perimeter isolation shots and YAC chances. Rome’s profile fits a script with multiple explosive opportunities.
Start: Davante Adams (LAR vs IND) This sets up for sustained drives and high-leverage targets in the condensed area of the field. Even with Puka on the other side, double-digit looks are squarely on the table, and that wins weeks.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy (CLE @ DET) Compressed pockets and quick-game answers tend to funnel targets away from his sweet spot. I see more usage for tight ends and backs than for Jeudy’s downfield routes.
Sit: Jordan Addison (MIN @ PIT) The talent is real, but coming off a suspension, I expect some rust and timing hiccups while the target tree keeps moving without him. The Steelers aren’t a soft landing either, so I’m waiting to see full-speed chemistry and real volume before I buy back in.
TIGHT ENDS
Start: Tucker Kraft (GB @ DAL) Trailing phases tend to push targets to the middle of the field, and that’s his lane. Hot reads and seam shots give him steady catch volume with real red-zone equity.
Start: Jason Ferguson (DAL vs GB) Controlled script plus play-action leaks make him a weekly chain-mover with end-zone designs. With CeeDee sidelined, I’m counting on 10-12 looks with a clean path to a spike week.
Sit: Sam LaPorta (DET vs CLE) Through three weeks, the production has been flat-out garbage – empty volume with no bite, no leverage, and no red-zone payoff. The Browns just smothered Tucker Kraft, and that defense is real, so I’m benching LaPorta until the usage turns into sustainable targets and actual scoring chances.
Sit: Brenton Strange (JAC vs SF) Physical matchup likely keeps him in as a blocker more than a featured option. With linebackers who erase underneath throws, his floor is almost entirely catch-dependent. And I’m not buying anything near the Jacksonville offense at this point.
