There are people who are Draft-Nics, who eat, drink, and sleep the NFL draft and everything leading up to it. They love the rookies and the hope and promise they bring. But there are others. The vast majority of fantasy players love the sleepers. The largest cottage industry in fantasy football is sleeper analysis.
So many love the rookies, who could fall into the sleeper category, but almost everyone covets the sleepers. Depending on the team, it can be extremely easy, or difficult, to find sleepers. Some teams have a plethora of sleepers, while others have none.
Within the AFC East, there are both. A team like the Dolphins doesn’t have many options because every player is a bona fide star and won’t sneak up on anyone or sleep up on anyone. A team like the Patriots is so thin at their skill positions that they don’t have many players who’ll break through and produce enough to become a sleeper.
But this article focuses on AFC East Sleepers, and I have found a few:
For a team with a top-five QB, who many believe is as high as No.2 behind Patrick Mahomes, the team has surely created a ton of turmoil in the passing game. Last season, QB Josh Allen had Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to get the ball to. Diggs is now in Houston, and Davis is in Jacksonville.
The TEs, Dawon Knox and Dalton Kincaid are still in place, but the WR group is completely revamped. Surely, at least one will carve out a relationship with Allen, but at the moment, it’s anybody’s guess. To quote Gordon Gekko from Wall Street, “pick the dog with the least fleas.” That may be a bit harsh because these are quality WRs, but none of Davis’s pedigree, and certainly not Diggs.
They now have Curtis Samuel via Washington, Mack Hollins formerly with the Falcons, Chase Claypool from Miami…and Pittsburgh before that, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling from the defending champion Chiefs. They drafted Keon Coleman in the second round. Their only holdover is Khalil Shakir.
None of these men are in the top 50 of most WR depth charts. In many cases, Coleman (the rookie) is rated the highest. And in just about every depth chart, Hollins, Claypool, and Valdez-Scantling are outside the top 100. Pay close attention to the preseason games, and more importantly, watch for the chatter coming out of Bills’ camp. But, if you are going to pick one of these players, aside from taking Coleman, I’d choose Shakir. As the only returning WR for Allen to get the ball to, he will be the most acclimated with the playbook and his surroundings. And he will be the WR Allen will most trust in passing the ball.
The Dolphins are one of those teams that is stacked at just about every skilled position. I think one player could have a sneaky fantastic year in Miami…TE-Jonnu Smith.
He is now with his fourth team, entering his eighth NFL season…and he’s still under 30 years old. He was one of the most highly touted TEs when he began his career in Tennessee. He went from 20 to 35 to 41 catches with the Titans. In his last season with them, he added 448 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
That was enough for the Patriots to sign him, but unfortunately for him, Tom Brady wasn’t getting him the ball; Mac Jones was. In his two seasons in New England, he only caught 55 passes. Last season, he tried to resuscitate his career in Atlanta, and he did. He had the best season of his career, catching 50 passes for 582 yards.
It’s not often that someone coming off their best season is on a list of sleepers; however, on this team, he will 100% be overlooked. He is outside of the top half of TEs on every depth chart, and I’ve seen him listed in the 30s. He will easily outperform his rankings. And although there are only so many catches between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Smith is a huge check-down option for QB Tua Tagovalua. Smith owners can expect another 50-catch season with a handful of TDs.
The Dolphins have an abundance of skilled players, whereas the Patriots basically have none. It is a stretch to even find a sleeper on this team. They have a journeyman QB in Jacoby Brissett and a rookie QB in Drake Maye. Brissett stands to start the season as the QB1, with Maye floundering thus far in training camp.
As a ninth-year veteran, Brissett should be able to be serviceable, but he really doesn’t have much to throw to. The starters are tentatively Demario “Pop” Douglas, a 5’8 second yr WR who is injury-prone, and Kendrick Bourne, who is currently on the PUP list. Until yesterday, rookie Ja’lyn Polk was listed as a starter, but he has now flip-flopped with the KJ Osborn. None of these receivers will make enough of a difference on the field or fill up the stat sheet enough to get put into the sleeper category.
The only player on the team who I see possibly being a difference make on the team is second-string RB Antonio Gibson. He played his first four seasons in our nation’s capital. His career up to this point has resembled Benjamin Button’s life; it’s going in the wrong direction.
In his second season in 2021, he rushed for over 1,000 yards and was the team’s RB1. He lost his starting job in 2022, and last season, he only started in two games. He only had 65 rushes in the entire year and gained only 265 rushing yards. His TDs have dropped every season he’s been in the league, from 11 to seven to three to one last year.
The Patriots will be forced to run the ball often, and Rhamondre Stevenson is coming back from an injury. Last season, the team used a tandem strategy, along with Ezekiel Elliot. And they will be employing a similar strategy this season. Gibson will not rush for 1000 yards this season, but he surely will catch balls out of the backfield. He’s had over 40 catches each of the last three seasons and will again. Look for him to reach 1000 combined YDs with a half dozen total TDs.
It isn’t often that a rookie is listed as a sleeper. Either they are high draft picks with a ton of hype or late draft picks buried behind a ton of players ahead of them on the depth chart.
But sometimes, there is a player drafted in the middle rounds who could make an impact on their team. This is the case for Allen. He is already listed as the Jets RB2, behind Breece Hall. I’m dating myself, but the 6’2 rookie is reminiscent of Hall of Famer Marcus Allen (no relation).
At Wisconsin, his three seasons were eerily similar. He rushed for over 1200 rushing yards in each of his first two years but fell off a bit to under 1000 Yards in his junior season. However, he did play one fewer game.
The biggest eye-popper to me is his pass-catching ability. With QB Aaron Rodgers getting him the ball, his skills will surely carry over from college. He doubled his production from his sophomore to junior seasons, going from 13 to 28 catches. And, the Jets do employ a game-heavy in backfield passes…last season, Hall caught 76 passes.
Some of that was due to the fact that the offense was anemic, and they had to rely on dump-off passes, but it is an offense Rodgers likes to use. Some of those passes that went to Hall will now go to Allen. Hall had over 1500 combined YDs last season. With Allen in the fold and Rodgers back from injury, the offense will be more dynamic…it will have to be; they were dead last in total TDs last season with only 22. They had the third-fewest receiving YDs. And although their running game was a bit better, they were still in the bottom third of the league.
