PUBLISHED ON :: 5/21/25
The definition of a “False Flag” is: “an act committed with the intent of disguising the actual source of responsibility and pinning blame on another party.” While the term is most often used in discussing political and/or world events, the concept is one that seems relevant to Best Ball.
In Best Ball, a “False Flag” to me is when the rankings/ADP and/or consensus expectations of a player/situation are making grand leaps or assumptions that I feel are based on a false, or at the very least very fragile, premise. We see this often in spots of uncertainty, especially when young, “exciting” players are involved. As the fantasy football landscape gets flooded with more and more content providers, the groupthink tends to really go into overdrive on many of these spots and the community often jumps to conclusions that change a player from a great, high-upside sleeper to an overpriced bet with mostly downside from where they are being selected. In this article, we will dive into five such situations and the dynamics around them that make them spots that we can exploit.
Cam Skattebo is a fourth-round rookie RB out of Arizona State. He was a versatile player and used in a lot of ways in college and was a lot of fun to watch. However, he is a player who is unimpressive from an athleticism standpoint and is on a team with a poor offensive outlook/projection. We are roughly a month removed from the NFL Draft and Skattebo’s ADP has steadily crept up over that time period, currently sitting around the 8th/9th round turn on all sites. Meanwhile, his teammate Tyrone Tracy Jr. – who is far more explosive and athletic, has a receiving background, and played very well in 2024 – continues to see his ADP drop. In most drafts right now, Tracy is selected 1-to-2 rounds AFTER Skattebo. Investing in backfields on bad offenses is already a tough sell, but what is the upside for Skattebo? How often do we see average athletes at the RB position post strong finishes on the season on a below-average offense? The answer is “very rarely.” Skattebo is currently being selected around RB30 on all sites, and that is roughly where we should expect him to finish *if everything goes right for him*.
Meanwhile, Tracy’s explosive skill set sticks out like a sore thumb in the Giants’ offensive skill-position personnel. After Malik Nabers, this is a roster filled with average NFL athletes. Tracy’s explosiveness fits the mold of a player who can help this offense be better than expected and he also has the skill set to produce at a top-15 or top-20 level over the course of the season if he is the primary RB. Let’s not forget that Tracy is also a player who played wide receiver on run-heavy offenses through 2022, playing running back for only one season in college. He is a great athlete who is versatile and still has a ton of room for improvement as he learns the position. I wasn’t high on Tracy early in the offseason, but as his ADP falls and he is often available in the ninth or even 10th round, he is a player I find myself feeling like I get great value on a round or two after Skattebo is off the board.
