Hilow’s End Around: Game Theory Training for DFS Play
Mark “Hilow” Garcia
Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. Injuries are the flavor of the week. That means we have more opportunities to make mistakes under the guise of “value” than a standard week as DFSers rationalize sub-optimal plays. I have a secret for you: there simply isn’t a “have to have it” backup running back stepping into a situation like we had last week with Alexander Mattison. Secret number two: the field thinks we have three to four of these smash running back plays this week. That information alone is enough to increase expected value into the realm of profitability, but we’re here to maximize our weekly EV. And you know me by now, we are going to dig in deep! With that, let’s get to it!
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Hunt is being treated as if he’s going from 14.4 touches per game to 25-30 when the reality is he’s likely to be kept in the 18-22 range. Still, there is plenty of talent to do damage on that level of involvement, but let’s not lose our grasp on reality here. The matchup isn’t perfect against a Cardinals team allowing just 20.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Hendy has yet to see more than 20 running back opportunities in a single game this year. Expect another 17-20 here.
Expansive chalk. Another play that people seem to be flocking to. Looked capable on tape as a rusher but lack of receiving really saps the upside. Banking on a yardage and touchdown back on the Bears, against the Packers, in a likely negative script.
Restrictive chalk. Not much else to say for Mr. Kupp.
Restrictive chalk. I’m actually a little perplexed with the apparent level of interest from the Kansas City/Washington game. It is quite clearly the best overall game environment for fantasy production, yet apparently isn’t being viewed that way from the field.
Restrictive chalk. Recency bias on steroids with these two. Is LJax really going to be on 20-25% of rosters this weekend?
Restrictive chalk. Waller was a seemingly forgotten man for four weeks prior to popping with expected ownership in Week 6. Kelce is the far superior play in a vacuum, and Waller’s likeliest scenario leaves him in the seven to nine target range, but there is always merit to one of the few players that are capable of 15-20 targets on a given week.
Expansive chalk. Revenge narrative, muahahahaha. Sorry, it’s full-blown Halloween spirit en mi casa already. RSJ represents a cheap path to double-digit targets in a plus game environment.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. I was quietly hoping Swift was going to fly under the radar this week, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Sad emoji.
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The chalk build very clearly goes through value-to-mid-range running backs and pay-up tight ends this week. This presents us with an interesting issue when we start considering how to best leverage that information because most of the best plays at the position also fall in the mid-range of pricing, which we’ll dive into here shortly. When we dig a little deeper into the slate, we find that people are likely to prioritize pay-up quarterbacks as well, which begins to funnel the chalk build even further, leaving room for only one pay-up wide receiver, one mid-range wide receiver, and one low-priced wide receiver. Not much left to say about the chalk build, to be honest – fairly straightforward this week.