Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate appears rock-solid on the surface, highlighted by higher game totals than we’ve seen all season. I believe the field is likeliest to react to that truth by attacking game environments at a much higher rate than what we’ve seen utilized this season. My reasoning is simple, as scoring has come down, the field has been less interested in game environment bets when the fact of the matter is those bets only become more valuable with the decrease in scoring. Now, with game totals up, we’re likely to see a swift overcorrection in the opposite direction. Except, at least to me, there are fewer game environments on this slate that could legitimately develop into something you had to have or you weren’t winning GPPs, particularly when you compare those games to the ones present on the previous six week’s worth of slates. That makes me fundamentally want to shift how I approach the slate, instead looking to teams and situations that are likely to outperform expectations and/or salary implications.
The good news is we have no shortage of bets to make along those lines given the increased Vegas implied team totals. Furthermore, a good starting point on this slate is to find the players that are fundamentally underpriced relative to their respective role or production profile, a practice that can increase your effective salary in a game where everyone starts at the same point ($50,000 in salary). The easy ones are not going overlooked by the field (Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, Cedric Tillman, etc.), but I promise you there are more of them out there this week who are getting far fewer eyes on them. We’ll cover some of them below, but you will get a more complete picture on The Slate podcast on Saturday morning. With that, let’s have some fun with this Week 9 slate, shall we?
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chase Brown has already operated as the lead back in this Cincinnati offense since Week 4, averaging 12.8 carries and 3.6 targets per game in that span. What has truly held him back from fantasy stardom has been a continued distrust in pass protection situations, which is why Zack Moss has continued to play a near-even number of offensive snaps. Moss popped on the injury report Friday with a neck injury and was promptly ruled out for Sunday, leaving only Brown and Trayveon Williams as active backs on the roster. So, the question then becomes, will Brown’s snap rate increase substantially without Moss? My answer is an emphatic “yes,” and it has more to do with the matchup than it does strictly with Moss’ absence. The Raiders rank 31st in pressure rate at a paltry 26.4%. If you remember back to Week 4, you’ll likely recall me stating that Brown had a chance to do some real damage in a matchup with a Panthers team that ranked dead last in pressure rate due to the lowered requirement for pass protection snaps from the backfield. He proceeded to hang 80 yards and two touchdowns in that spot. This brings us back to the Raiders and their low pressure rates. It is because of those low pressure rates that I expect Brown to see a significant bump in snap rate and be free to be in a route at an increased rate, which is big for an offense that has fed its backfield the ninth most targets this season. I see a floor of five to six targets to go with 15-18 carries here, for a running back that holds a 4.6 yards per carry mark and 3.03 yards after contact per attempt this season, in a matchup against an opponent that can be had for yards on the ground.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. 21 targets in the two games without Amari Cooper in a more robust route tree, for an offense with a clear path to 40+ pass attempts, should not be priced at $4,300. Ever. Even if there’s a fire.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where the question should not be “can Alvin Kamara fail,” it should be, “the offense is extremely unlikely to fail, so if Kamara fails, how does he fail?” This line of thinking has made me land at an expectation of “either Kamara or Taysom Hill on every roster this week.”
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Is it just me or do you immediately think of the Michael Jordan “stop it, get some help” anti-drug public service announcement meme every time you see Drake London as chalk? Just me?
expires end of 12/2!
