Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Another slate, another difficult puzzle to piece together amidst tight player pricing. Such is NFL DFS life in 2024, baby! Adjust or get left behind. Beyond the “macro 2024 view” of this slate, we are presented with another slate of overconfidence and borderline arrogance by the field.
Check this out. The wide receiver with the highest ownership expectation has gone over just 3x of his Week 7 salary once in six games this season (no spoilers, he’s listed below). The tight end with the highest expected ownership has seen over five targets twice in five games, playing for a team with a modest 20.9% tight end target rate against an opponent allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (no spoilers, damnit!). There’s a running back expected to be on over 25% of rosters this weekend playing for the team with the lowest Vegas implied team total on the slate (15.75, lolz). The combined expected ownership on the top five Falcons skill position players exceeds 80%. Do you know how many 4x games those five players have at their respective Week 7 salaries this season? Bijan Robinson – zero. Drake London – one. Darnell Mooney – one. Ray-Ray McCloud – zero. Kyle Pitts – zero. And all it took for those two games to pop up was 58 Kirk Cousins pass attempts in an overtime game in which he set career-highs in multiple categories.
So, you ask me what the macro view of this slate is, and I will respond with overconfidence and borderline arrogance by the field. When the field expresses too much confidence in fragile plays, it becomes that much easier to generate meaningful leverage in a +EV manner. Welcome to Week 7.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chuba Hubbard projects as the top point-per-dollar play on the slate on both major sites this weekend. His usage has been phenomenal for the past month, he is seeing enough targets to offset the need for multiple scores, and he is averaging over 100 yards on the ground in his previous four games. Oh yeah, and the pure rushing matchup is the best on the slate. What’s not to love?
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Drake London has seen his role in the Atlanta offense shifted this season, playing a career-high rate out of the slot in a demi-Cooper Kupp role under Zac Robinson. That said, this archetype of player requires immense volume to return viable GPP scores (9.9 aDOT) and the Falcons have attempted more than 30 passes in just two of six games and more than 35 passes just once this season. London has gone over just 3x once in six games, leaving him as one of the most overpriced pass-catchers on the slate. I’m completely fine, personally, betting against that profile.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I mean, we could copy-paste what we wrote about Tony Pollard last week here. He’s a “fine” play, albeit one that comes with more paths to failure than the field will likely be honest with this week. Just please keep in mind that Pollard is a running back playing for a team with the lowest Vegas implied team total on the slate.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. As we’ve seen this season, Kyren Williams has one of the most valuable roles of any running back in the league, leading the league in red zone opportunities (32, or a ridiculous 6.4 per game) and snap share (86.2%). If the Rams are succeeding against an inferior opponent, it is highly likely that a significant portion of that production is flowing through Williams.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Really? Really, guys? Okay, so he saw 13 targets last week against the tight-end funnel Green Bay defense. So what! You know which team is 10th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season with only 7.0 per game? The Raiders. Do you know who is likely to come back this week? Cooper Kupp. No, thank you, sir and ma’am. Get your value elsewhere you filthy animals.
