Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate has been an intriguing one to watch take shape from the sidelines. Less than 24 hours ago, people were clamoring to play a fifth-round rookie quarterback in his first NFL start because the slate was so deprived of value. Fast forward to Friday evening and running back value has opened up in the form of Bucky Irving and Antonio Gibson. Furthermore, four of the top eight players in expected ownership are from a game involving two teams averaging 22.2 and 16.6 points per game this season. Yes, we speak of the Falcons and Panthers. But hey, at least the Falcons have a healthy 26.5 Vegas implied team total. Until last week’s 36-30 overtime shootout, the Falcons had scored 10 points, 22 points, 17 points, and 26 points and very clearly would prefer a more run-balanced and methodical approach on offense. Remember, Zac Robinson hails from the Sean McVay coaching tree, a lineage that is typically defined by their ability to adapt to game environments and make necessary adjustments based on their opponents.
That is a solid snapshot to describe how this slate is taking form. The state of this slate is defined by over-certainty. There are currently nine players expected to garner more than 20% ownership, with only Jake Ferguson on a team currently in the top half of the league in scoring. What about a Ravens team averaging the second most points per game this season, with the highest team total on the slate? What about true workhorse running backs (well, there are only two on this slate – Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, but Kamara’s team has a 19-point Vegas implied team total)? What about the wide receiver who finished the 2023 season as the overall WR1? What about the Packers with a 26.5 Vegas implied team total at home against the Cardinals? This brings us back to the state of this slate – the field is expressing overconfidence in players and teams that should not be as highly regarded as they currently are. And it’s our job to capitalize on those transgressions. Welcome to Week 6.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Bijan Robinson averages 13.4 carries and 3.8 targets per game while playing for an offense averaging just 59.2 plays per game, and that includes the 81 offensive plays run from scrimmage in their Week 5 overtime shootout. That means they averaged 53.75 offensive plays run from scrimmage during the first month of the season. Does that mean that Bijan’s piece of the pie remains consistent when the team is expected to run more offensive plays, as should be the case against the lowly Panthers? Well, he saw 12 carries and three targets to the six carries and three targets of Allgeier when the team ran 81 offensive plays in Week 5. I don’t know, man. It feels like the field is trying to get Bijan to workhorse status to support their Best Ball bags. Sure, the matchup and the like, but it’s actually a poor schematic matchup against a Panthers team that leads the league in Cover-3 utilization. Typically, man/gap run-blocking concepts carry higher efficiency against Cover-3 due to the static nature of the linebackers, a unit that has clearly delineated run-stopping responsibilities against zone but can be prone to attack by pulling guards and tackles in the second level (as is the case with man/gap concepts). That’s important here because Bijan has seen 57 carries behind zone concepts and just nine carries behind man/gap concepts. In other words, I don’t think it’s overly likely we see a drastic improvement in his 4.3 yards per carry thus far. But again, it is the Panthers.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. In stark contrast to the previous exploration with Bijan, Liam Coen has been doing a solid job of giving his backfield the best opportunity to succeed this season, tailoring run-blocking concepts to best suit the talents of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. White has seen 32 carries behind zone concepts to 18 carries behind man/gap concepts while Irving has seen 28 carries behind man/gap concepts and 13 carries behind zone concepts. In other words, Coen is simplifying the reads for his rookie running back to great effect, as evidenced by his robust 5.6 yards per carry, 3.68 yards after contact per attempt, and 12 forced missed tackles. We’re likely to see former undrafted free agent Sean Tucker mix in a bit here, but Irving should carry the bulk of the load against a Saints team that could struggle with time of possession considering they are starting a fifth-round rookie quarterback behind an offensive line missing all three interior offensive linemen. Finally, Irving has already been entrusted with goal line duties through the first five games of his rookie season, seeing four goal line carries to the one of White.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Drake London’s season-high in receiving yardage prior to the Week 5 shootout with the Saints stood at just 67 yards. In fact, do you know how many games London has in his two-plus-year career with 100 yards and a score? One. Week 5 was the first time in his career that London has surpassed 100 yards through the air and scored. As far as role and route structure, London is almost directly comparable to Michael Pittman (three games in his four plus year career with 100 yards and a score), and you know we are not typically giddy to play Michael Pittman here at OWS. Just saying.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. There are very few tight ends on this slate (or any slate in 2024?) that can put the slate out of reach. Jake Ferguson is one of them (likely joined by only Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Sam LaPorta in Week 6). Except the field likely will not play this man correctly this week. For Ferguson to put the slate out of reach (the entire reason we would pay $5,000 in salary for his services), he would need to surpass 100 yards through the air with a score or score multiple touchdowns. If he is doing either of those things, the chances that Dak Prescott is the optimal quarterback on the slate increase immensely. It’s a two-for-one package through a theoretical framework, and yet, the field likely isn’t going to treat him as such. In other words, we should pair Ferguson with Dak at a 100% frequency any time Ferguson finds his way onto our rosters this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Diontae Johnson ranks fifth in targets (45), 12th in target share (27.3%), 13th in targets per route run (29.2%), and first in red zone targets (10, only two receptions – lol) and red zone target share (50%). The matchup is far from perfect against a Falcons team allowing just 6.2 yards per pass attempt (sixth) and 187.4 pass yards per game (eighth), but the role is absolutely locked in.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Tony Pollard is a fine play, that’s really the best way to describe him this week. He has as good a shot as any back on this slate to see 20-22 running back opportunities. The biggest problem I see is that he has very few paths to more volume than that due to the presence of Tyjae Spears. Even so, Pollard has a path to 100 yards and a score on the ground with enough pass game involvement to offset the need for multiple touchdowns. But that’s exactly what he’ll need to return a GPP-viable score against the Colts.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chris Godwin has gotten to a price where a standard nine-target, six-reception game for 70 yards and a score is not going to get the job done for fantasy purposes. The matchup is fine on paper, and the Buccaneers should be afforded additional offensive plays run from scrimmage due to the state of the Saints, but it’s a tough sell for me considering a 6.0 aDOT and moderate 24.8 targets per route run rate.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. In a vacuum, I prefer Chuba Hubbard to Diontae Johnson for multiple reasons. The pure on-paper matchup is better for Hubbard, he has a clearer path to consistent volume in this offense, and we might be looking at Hubbard differently this week had he managed three additional yards in Week 5 to push his streak of 100 yards on the ground and a touchdown to three straight games (receiving touchdown in Week 3 against the Raiders). He has also averaged 4.5 targets per game over the previous four games, giving him enough pass game involvement to offset the need for multiple scores.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. We’re really excited to play a chalk running back on the team with the lowest Vegas implied team total on the slate? Remember, the highest correlative functions between running backs and fantasy production are volume (he should have it here) and touchdowns (probably not).
