Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Week 5 has morphed from “there are three top expected game environments, but the field doesn’t appear to be attacking the one with the best chances of being something you had to have in order to win, largely due to the lack of projectable value present in the other games” to “the slate of the late-week news.” We’ve had injury slates already this season, but this slate feels a lot different due to the timing of the news.
We had Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary either ruled out or listed as doubtful for the Giants on Friday. We had Romeo Doubs listed as doubtful on Friday for a personal reason that turned out to be due to him skipping practices after being upset at his current role, which when added to Christian Watson’s absence changes a lot for the Packers in a good spot. We have the Cleveland offensive line that has both tackles listed as questionable after extended absences, for a team that has struggled to protect their quarterback through the first month of play. We have Anthony Richardson listed as questionable who reportedly did very little in practice all week, with accompanying reports that stated that Joe Flacco took most, if not all, of the first-team snaps on both Thursday and Friday. We had Jonathan Taylor ruled out for the same team. We have Brian Robinson listed as questionable after managing just one limited session on Friday. Zamir White and Davante Adams are out for the Raiders. Khalil Shakir snuck up on us and is listed as out for the Bills. We have two tight ends who have missed the previous three games who are listed as questionable in David Njoku and Evan Engram, both of whom could alter the makeup of the slate at a gross position. George Kittle missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and is listed as questionable in an afternoon game after managing only a limited session Friday with his rib injury. Fred Warner, the top linebacker in coverage in the league, missed practices Wednesday and Thursday before getting in a limited session Friday, someone who could drastically alter the micro matchup for Trey McBride.
I know I’m missing some, but you get the picture here. This slate is going to be won and lost by our ability to parse information quickly, come to decisions, and leave enough flexibility to make changes entering the afternoon portion of the slate. In addition to all the moving pieces due to injuries, the value on this slate is still exceedingly sparse, as evidenced by the current lack of ownership being drawn from the game I would say it has the highest chance to turn into something we had to have in order to win: Ravens at Bengals. All of those components come together to make this the most intriguing slate of the season from a strategy perspective, one that can both take you from comfort to agony and induce second thoughts once 1300 ET rolls around. As such, simplifying things as much as possible is beneficial to our process this week, which will allow us to take on the firehose of information we’re going to get all Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Kyren leads the league with 28 red zone opportunities through four weeks, which for those math wizards in the crowd, equates to a ridiculous seven red zone opportunities per game. To put that number into perspective, D’Andre Swift, the lead back for the Bears and a popular player on this slate, has three total red zone opportunities through four games. Three. Kyren is averaging seven per game. He also has opportunity counts of 26 and 23 in the two games without both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, in a solid on-paper matchup and with a healthy Vegas implied team total.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Tracy gets the mega-boost induced by injuries to Nabers and Singletary and is priced at just $4,300. That said, the Giants are likely to significantly struggle to move the ball against the Seahawks after their defense got embarrassed on national television on Monday. I am of the opinion that there are better places to make our bets than on a rookie with 29 rush yards on his ledger through four games. Furthering the uncertainty here is the presence of Eric Gray, whom I expect to be involved in the backfield plans as well.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jake Tribbey of Fantasy Points brought up a great point on a podcast with me today – Jordan Mason and Derrick Henry are effectively the same play on paper this week. Mason has seen 21 or more opportunities in every game this season, going over 25 in two of them but also seeing only seven total targets in four games, while playing for a team with a Vegas implied team total of 28.5 points (first on the slate). Henry has seen 26 and 27 running back opportunities during the previous two games but has only seven targets on the season while playing for a team with a Vegas implied team total of 25.75 (third on the slate). Mason is the cheaper back by $400 in salary but is projecting to double the ownership of Henry. That isn’t to say Mason or Henry is a better on-paper play than the other, simply that the field is expressing a high degree of confidence that one is the better play than the other.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Michael Pittman is a wide receiver who needs elite volume to return GPP-viable scores. That doesn’t mean those opportunities will not present themselves this season – they most certainly will. Look at what Drake London did on Thursday night (very similar route trees for those two). But what it does mean is that your roster better tell a very specific story if playing a guy that requires immense volume to return a GPP-viable ceiling.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Reed has gone over 30 DK points in both games with Jordan Love this season. That said, I do want to at least play Devil’s Advocate a bit here and mention that the Packers have yet to have a normal game environment through an entire month of the NFL season. They were playing from behind the entirety of their Week 1 shootout with the Eagles, they started Malik Willis twice after that, and then they fell behind 28-0 halfway through the second quarter against the Vikings. Reed is a guy who can do significant damage on 7-8 targets, but that might be what he is forced to do in a standard game environment for the Packers. But yeah, he’s also really good at football.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. After I talked up Whittington two weeks ago as the player likeliest to step into the vacated Cooper Kupp role for the Rams (and after he was not utilized that way in Week 3), he finally was given that opportunity by Sean McVay in Week 4. Now, this team would prefer to limit their pass attempts and are almost assuredly not going to be attacking downfield at great frequency in this spot, but that tole has value at a salary of just $4,600.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The slate of the chalk yardage-and-touchdown backs is upon us. That’s not terrible because these pay-up options are all in solid on-paper spots, but it is worth mentioning. Walker has forced an absurd 14 missed tackles on 32 carries this season, generating 3.66 yards after contact per attempt in the process. To those numbers in perspective, the 3.66 YAC/A ranks eighth and the forced missed tackles per carry ranks first, of players with 20 or more carries through four weeks. And he gets a Giants team allowing the second most yards after contact on the ground this season.
