Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
If Week 1 was the slate of uncertainty, and Week 2 was the slate of overconfidence, and Week 3 was the slate of injury mayhem, then Week 4 is the slate of the trends. We know the Jaguars are playing an insane amount of man coverage. We know the Colts and their static 4-3, Cover-3-heavy defense that is struggling to adjust to a dynamic league. We know the Rams look historically bad on defense. We know the meta of the league is shifting to heavier rates of two-high alignments, which is shifting the emphasis to heavier rates of rushing. We know who the work horse backs are. We’ve seen play calling tendencies in action. These are all new data points to add to our decision-making matrix, data that we didn’t have access to over the first three weeks of the season.
As for the specifics of this slate, man, there are a lot of injuries again. And yet, we don’t have a lot of value that projects well, leaving the DFS community scrambling to identify value (hint, their answer this week is to just play cheap tight ends that can go 4x their salary, Tre Tucker, and Jonathan Mingo).
The field knows where the solid game environments are, as evidenced by the expected ownership we’re seeing heading into the weekend. That said, a lot of that ownership makes very little sense to me when taken into context with the ownership around them in those same games. For example, we want to play Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs but not C.J. Stroud. We want to play Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard but not Andy Dalton. We want to play Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert but don’t know where to get the value to do so. We’re certain the 49ers won’t fail against the Patriots, but we want to play a running back with little pass game involvement against a defense ceding the fourth-fewest yards before contact and just 83 yards on the ground per game through three weeks.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. A mid-week soft tissue injury is not something we want to see from a wide receiver, making this a shakier play than the field is likely to give credit for this week. Even so, Johnson projects as the second-best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate, second only to Nico Collins. The injury and ownership take him from “I’ll figure out a way to play him differently than the field in small field contests” to “I’ll figure out a way to play him differently than the field in all contests and be honest with the range of outcomes of this game environment should he not make it through the game.”
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Patriots are allowing the fourth-fewest yards before contact (0.93, as in, dudes are getting hit almost immediately) and the fifth-fewest rush yards per game (83). Jordan Mason has very little pass game involvement. Enjoy.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I’ve laid out the metrics and statistics in multiple places this week, so we won’t belabor that here. Suffice it to say, my research told me that Collins would likely project as one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate. He is the top point-per-dollar projection on the slate.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Najee is the second-highest point-per-dollar projection on the slate and there aren’t many holes I can poke in this spot on paper. The Colts average the lowest time of possession at a pitiful 21:36 over a non-negligible three-game sample. The Steelers like to control the pace, tempo, and environment in their games by forcing their opponents to march the field, allowing more opportunities for their elite pass rush to generate disruption, and march the field on their own on offense. Harris could see 25-30 running back opportunities with Jaylen Warren out.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The field really wants Bijan to be classified as a workhorse running back. He is not, at least, not yet. That said, this is a beautiful schematic matchup against a Saints team ceding the third highest yards before contact (2.75).
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Unlike Bijan, Kyren Williams is a workhorse for the Rams. The offense could completely fail against one of the top defenses in the league, but if the Rams are scoring points, Kyren is highly likely to be involved.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is about as neutral a matchup as you can find against a Cardinals defense allowing 1.95 yards before contact behind an offensive line generating 1.95 yards before contact. The volume should be there for Robinson to return a solid cost-considered game. That said, he’s going to need to hit the 100-yard bonus and score to return a GPP-viable score here (which I guess is true of every running back).
