Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is going to cause fits for a good chunk of the field. Why will this slate trip a good portion of the field up, you ask? This is the first week of the season where pricing is legitimately tight. After three weeks, the DraftKings pricing algorithm has enough data (takes prior ownership, production, and pricing into account) to shift things around enough to create an environment where concessions must be made. Where is the field likeliest to make those concessions this week? Floor. In a vacuum, DFS pricing equates to floor, meaning the higher the salary, the higher the floor. Now that pricing is tighter, floor is harder to come by.
The way you have seen this idea presented throughout the site this week is through the word “uncertainty.” Uncertainty is simply another way of saying “yo, dudes and dudettes, pricing is tight and floor is going to be hard to come by for your rosters as a whole.” Take a minute and think through the “value” plays (I emphasize “value” as I did to drive home the difference between a player being a true value – they are priced too low – and a player being called a “value” by the industry – priced below $6,000 at the quarterback position, $4,000 at the wide receiver position, $5,000 at the running back position or $4000 at the tight end position) being thrown around this week. Guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Quez Watkins, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson, Anthony Firkser, Van Jefferson, Jr., Curtis Samuel, and Kadarius Toney have generated some level of buzz. That said, I need to be very clear here: these players are not terrible plays, just realize what you’re getting, and, more importantly, what you’re sacrificing when you place them on rosters.
The big picture of this intro is meant to drive home the basics. You could have largely skated by up to this point with poor fundamentals. How do we manage variance, elevate a roster’s floor, and reduce the number of variables that have to fall in our favor? Stacks and attacking game environments!
Restrictive chalk. The modest increase to pass game involvement pads his floor ever so slightly, which could turn into more this week in the absence of both starting wide receivers.
Restrictive chalk. Leads the NFL in fantasy points at the wide receiver position, playing in the highest game total on the slate.
Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Will he be shadowed by Trevon Diggs or not? (My answer is in the SE/3-Max channel on Discord!)
Restrictive chalk. Coming off an 18-target game on one of the highest Vegas implied team totals on the slate.
Restrictive chalk. Poor on-paper matchup, but matchups don’t really apply to Cheetah.
Restrictive chalk. Great on-paper matchup on a team with a Vegas implied team total of almost 31 points.
Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Matt Nagy relinquished play-calling duties, huzzah!
Restrictive chalk. Should have both volume and game flow in his favor.
Expansive chalk. Uhhhh, come again? Enough said.
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