Thursday, Sep 29th
Monday, Oct 3rd

End Around 3.22

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max


The theme of the week for Week 3 is recency bias. As you will see below, all the “restrictive chalk pieces” come through players who just blew up last week (Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill) or are playing a team who just gave up massive production (Joe Mixon). Additionally, we have FIVE games with a game total north of 47.0 points (typically a solid cutoff for evaluating game environments) after having only two such games on last week’s main slate – yet chalk always forms. The fact that we have five games with a game total north of 47.0 points means we should be less concerned with finding game environments outside those five for our primary game stacks (as opposed to last week when we highlighted a few outside that threshold that could go “cuckoo bonkers,” as we did for the Ravens/Dolphins game in multiple places around the site). Basically, last week we had to bet on two games “failing,” whereas this week you’d effectively be betting on all five top expected game environments failing if looking outside of those five for primary stacks. That’s a different story for secondary correlation and one-offs, which we’ll get into more on The Slate podcast.


Quick explanation – restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.


Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. The Packers have allowed a massive 6.09 yards per carry to opposing running backs to start the season but fall in matchup rankings due to not having allowed a rushing score to the position. The Buccaneers will be without Chris Godwin for certain, Russell Gage was downgraded to DNP on Friday, Julio Jones is coming off a DNP/DNP/LP week, and Mike Evans is suspended. Fournette’s utilization rates are already in the top twelve in the league.


Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Checks in second in the league in route participation rate and remains in the top ten in utilization. Still running behind a bottom-of-the-barrel offensive line.


Restrictive chalk. Facing a Jets team allowing 27.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Most notably, the Jets are actually holding running backs to a middling 4.07 yard per carry and the matchup yields a paltry 3.44 net-adjusted line yards metric behind the league’s lowest-performing offensive line in run-blocking metrics, against the league’s ninth-ranked defensive unit against the run. 


Restrictive chalk. Diggs boasts a 35% team target market share (ELITE) and 30% targets per route run value (ELITE) through two weeks. Enough said.


Restrictive chalk. Averaging 31.4 DraftKings points per game and has seen double-digit targets in eight consecutive games, dating back to last season. Enough said.


Restrictive chalk. Leads the league in receiving yards through two games and is averaging 31.5 DraftKings points per game. Has averaged 12.5 targets per game in Miami.


Expansive chalk. Saw eight targets last week. Still splitting snaps with Johnny Mundt (only a 56% snap rate in Week 2).


Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Has played all but five offensive snaps for the Rams this season and has averaged 10 targets per game (11 and nine). 


Expansive chalk. The Panthers are surprisingly stout defensively to start the year, holding opponents to the second fewest yards per reception and yards per pass attempt thus far. Their “light package” foundation and unique blitz packages mean they are better suited to playing with a lead.


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