Sunday, Feb 9th — Late
Bye Week:
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Titans
Vikings
Steelers
Texans

End Around 20.24

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This is what we said in the macro slate view from last week, which is directly applicable to the Divisional Round slate as well:

“Before we get into the inner workings of this slate, I want to remind everyone of the theoretical leverage that can be gained by approaching each game in a sequence on a slate like this one. No two games are played simultaneously, meaning we get additional information with each game played. We can take that information (results, projected optimal players, ownership, etc) and include that in our decision-making matrix at each specific step – each game now being an additional decision node in the game tree. For those that are new to OWS, my works, or Game Theory, that effectively means we can adjust our rosters, and the decisions that lead to them, after each game is played. The benefit of this slate being spread across three days means that process is less time consuming and frantic as compared to the Thanksgiving slate earlier this year, giving us more time to adjust our thoughts and actions at each step.”

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

With there being only four games on the main slate for Divisional Weekend, we’re going to raise our threshold for classifying a play as chalk to 30% expected ownership.

JAHMYR GIBBS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jahmyr Gibbs ended the regular season on an absolute tear in the absence of David Montgomery. Montgomery is off the team’s injury report and will play in the Divisional Round, bringing into question the expected split in usage between the two. Does the team continue forward with Gibbs in a featured role or do they scale back his usage towards a natural timeshare with Montgomery?

HOLLYWOOD BROWN

EXPANSIVE CHALK. The field seems to be expressing a high degree of confidence that Hollywood Brown will see a massive uptick in snap rate and route participation rate this week. It makes sense considering he played two games before being held out for rest in Week 18 and seeing an additional week of rest with the playoff bye, but the Chiefs have utilized a five-receiver rotation all season and appear content with Xavier Worthy leading the team in snaps and routes. High risk for minimal reward, in my opinion.

SAM LAPORTA

EXPANSIVE CHALK. After a dreadful start to the regular season, Sam LaPorta has rattled off double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games. He has peaked at just 21.1 DK points this season, but he is going to project extremely well based on his current salary and recent run of production.

PUKA NACUA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This dude is the truth and is likely already a top five wide receiver in the NFL. The matchup is a difficult one, but he should be the primary point of emphasis for the offense this week.

KHALIL SHAKIR

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Khalil Shakir has gone over a modest 15.9 DK point three times this season, peaking at 24.6 in Week 14 against the Rams. That game ended in a 44-42 loss, highlighting the game environment Shakir likely needs to return a viable GPP score.

AMON-RA ST. BROWN

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Sun God clearly carries one of the highest raw ceilings on the slate, but he likely requires the Lions to be playing in negative game script to unlock said ceiling.

TERRY MCLAURIN

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Terry McLaurin hit double-digit targets just four times this season, two of which came in the last two weeks. McLaurin went over 20 DK points eight times this season while scoring a ridiculous 14 touchdowns. More importantly, his splits align with the matchup against the Lions.

XAVIER WORTHY

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Xavier Worthy has seen nine or more targets in each of his previous three games, hitting 19.6 fantasy points or more in all three contests. Even so, Worthy has his 20 DK points just three times all season and peaked at 22.9 in Week 17. If we break down the math into its simplest form, the field is saying Worthy will return a GPP-viable score at a 30-35% frequency in this spot, while his performance this season indicates he is probably in the 17.6% to 23.5% range.

SAQUON BARKLEY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The best, and most complete, running back in the league in a natural splits matchup, as six-point home favorites. Checks out.

CHALK BUILD::

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