Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Week 1 brought us a week of falsities and uncertainties. Week 2 is even more psychological than the opening week because we’ve seen these teams perform. But we’ve only seen these teams perform once and haven’t been given the whole picture yet.
Let me take you back to kindergarten. Remember those paint-by-number pieces of art where each number corresponded to a different number, and you had no idea what the final picture would be? That’s a lot like the NFL season. Camp and preseason served as the rough outline of our picture but it was all just lines on canvas. We just got done painting all the areas with the number one. We got a small glimpse at what the final product will be. But there are still 16 more colors left to paint. Who in the room tried to figure out what the final picture was after the first color? That was me. I wanted to figure everything out before everyone else because I was so damn competitive. But we grow. We soften. We learn what we’re good at and how to spot situations where it’s okay to not know the final answer.
Which brings us back to the Week 2 NFL DFS main slate. These teams have only sketched the rough outline and given us one color to paint with. We might think we know, with a high degree of certainty, how a team will behave in certain situations, what tendencies to expect when leading or trailing, or what teams we can expect to push a game environment all on their own.
If Week 1 was the slate of uncertainty, Week 2 is the slate of overconfidence.
There are two major aspects that shape this slate. First, injuries are now an issue after we went through the fewest off-season injuries I can remember in recent history. Second, the chalk on this slate is some of the heaviest chalk I can remember in recent history. Those two aspects of the macro slate view combine with the field’s overconfidence in Week 2 to return one of the most dynamic slates, through a theoretical lens, I’ve tackled since writing this piece.
So strap in, this is a fun one!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. There are three, maybe four (depending on how you view Bijan Robinson), clear and true workhorse running back situations in the league this season, and all three are on this slate. There’s Breece Hall with the Jets, Kyren Williams with the Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers (and even that one is open to interpretation due to Mason’s lower pass game involvement). With that said, Hall, Williams, and Mason are extremely underpriced in Week 2 relative to their range of outcomes on this slate. So, it makes sense that all three of those players are amongst the chalkiest plays we’ve seen over the previous three to four seasons. The question on this slate is not whether these are “good” plays or not – they are good plays – the question is how do we attack this slate knowing that there are three underpriced, solid-on-paper plays that are not going to go overlooked by the field?
The final piece here is Hall is just good at football. He forced six missed tackles and gained 3.56 yards after contact per attempt against a solid 49ers front. That’s impressive as hell considering he averaged 3.4 yards per carry. But that also highlights how poorly the Jets offensive line performed. Something to consider here against the retooled Titans defense under Dennard Wilson. Wilson deployed 33.3% Cover-3 and 24.2% Cover-4 coverages in Week 1, two coverages that are built to split the difference between coverage and stopping the run. This same defense just held Chicago backs to 3.44 yards per carry.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. See Breece Hall.
The final piece here is the offensive line injuries for the Rams.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. See: Breece Hall.
The final piece for Mason is the low emphasis in the pass game, making him largely a yardage-and-touchdown back.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Cooper Kupp is coming off a vintage performance in which he saw 21 targets. First off, Kupp is not washed. Second, Sean McVay did an outstanding job in Week 1 playing the hand that he was dealt, and keeping his team in a position to come out victorious. The Rams lost three offensive linemen in addition to the wide receiver who just set the rookie receiving record, all in the first half. To combat the relentless pass rush of the Lions, McVay shifted to an offense that moved the football through quick-hitting strikes to Kupp. Seriously, McVay called an incredible game. The Lions generated a ridiculous 23 pressures. 23! Turn the page to their opponent in Week 2 and we’re likely to see Kupp’s aDOT increase due to the inability of the Cardinals to generate organic pressure without bringing pressure.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. CeeDee Lamb at home against a defense that utilized man coverage at a 41.0% frequency and single-high alignments at a 66.7% frequency in Week 1 sounds pretty sweet.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. On the field for almost every play and in a route for almost every called pass play, for a price of $4,000. Makes sense on the surface. That is, until you realize there are very few paths to ceiling here.
