Before we get into the inner workings of this slate, I want to remind everyone of the theoretical leverage that can be gained by approaching each game in a sequence on a slate like this one. No two games are played simultaneously, meaning we get additional information with each game played. We can take that information (results, projected optimal players, ownership, etc) and include that in our decision-making matrix at each specific step – each game now being an additional decision node in the game tree. For those that are new to OWS, my works, or Game Theory, that effectively means we can adjust our rosters and the decisions that lead to them after each game is played. The benefit of this slate being spread across three days means that the process is less time consuming and frantic as compared to the Thanksgiving slate earlier this year, giving us more time to adjust our thoughts and actions at each step.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Home favorite running back on the team with the second highest Vegas implied team total, coming off his highest snap rate and opportunity share of the season in Week 18. Everything checks out.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Puka has seen eight or more targets in every fully healthy game this season, hitting double-digit targets in four of his final eight games (14, 14, 14, and 13 targets in those four games). Nacua is going to project as one of the safest options on the slate and presents a solid on-paper play this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. And then there’s Jones. I don’t get this one at all. Jones saw 20 or more opportunities eight times this season but did so only twice in his final six games. He saw more than 62% of the team’s offensive snaps only once in the final six games of the regular season and hit 20 DK points or more just three times all year. Color me unimpressed.
