Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Week 18 slates typically carry more uncertainty than a standard slate, and this one takes the cake for the most uncertainty that I can remember. And yet, chalk is going to form, like any other slate. Except on this slate, the chalk is borderline ridiculous. We’ve seen this recent trend of overemphasis on projections really take hold towards the end of the regular season, something that has made the chalk even more chalky. The final primary point of emphasis on this slate is the idea that the field is highly likely to avoid variance, something we can use to our advantage as we piece together rosters this weekend. I love this slate (and I think you might, too)!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Michael Carter saw 15 running back opportunities on a 72% snap rate in Week 17 following the injury to James Conner. The matchup is poor on paper, there are uncertainties regarding the involvement of DeeJay Dallas and potentially Tony Jones, and the Cardinals are implied for a middling 23.5 points. I am more than happy looking elsewhere.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Home favorite lead back on the team with the second highest Vegas implied team total. Checks out.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Home favorite lead back on the team with the highest Vegas implied team total. Checks out.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Brock Bowers has been able to overcome the mediocrity of his offense on his way to NFL records this season. That said, the Raiders are one of only two teams that have failed to score more than 26 points in every game this season. Even so, Bowers is one of only two or three tight ends that can put the slate out of reach this week. He’s fine.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We’ve been playing Mike Evans all season at sub-5% ownership and he is now expected to garner 30-35% ownership. I get the feeling the field is vastly overreacting to the “incentive narrative” at play this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jennings will be catching passes from former college teammate Joshua Dobbs in Week 18 after being the target on three of four pass attempts from Dobbs at the end of the game last week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Yes, Drake London’s aDOT has increased with Michael Penix under center for the Falcons, but this is still a team that would prefer to approach games with a run-balanced offense, in a spot they should control throughout.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Sure. Hey, at least he scored through the air last week!
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Meyers has gone over 20 fantasy points just three times this season, with a season-high of 25.1. There are better spots for upside on this slate.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. JSN hit a 4x salary multiplier his Week 18 salary four times while seeing double-digit targets six times this season. He’s fine.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Eagles have some of the greatest uncertainty of any team on the slate. That does not seem like a winning equation considering the heavy expected ownership on Shipley.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Tony Pollard has gotten in three practices, total, in the last six weeks, managing a single limited session on Friday in preparation for Week 18. I don’t know about you, but that does not inspire confidence in my head.
