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Monday, Sep 12th

End Around 18.21.

Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

Quite the interesting and unique slate, no? The variance on this slate is off the chart, making our exploration in this piece of the utmost importance; not for the particular plays or leverage opportunities that we’ll discuss below, but for the methodologies and systematic approach to leverage generation that we’ve attempted to explore throughout the season, which is designed to teach more than it is to highlight individual plays. With that in mind, there are only a couple of games on the main slate where each team is playing for something other than pride this week, there are only a couple of games with even moderate game totals, and there are enough teams with uncertainty surrounding personnel to make your head spin. This should be a fun one, let’s dig in!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

kyler murray

Restrictive chalk. The “hammer” quarterback on a team with a healthy 26.75 Vegas implied team total, I get it. But, at the level of ownership on the Cardinals this week, I am much more interested in a full fade in a game environment with a much wider range of outcomes than the field seems to be giving credit for.

DEVIN SINGLETARY:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. 80% or higher snap rate in three of the Bills last four games. Recency bias extraordinaire after cracking 20 fantasy points for the first time all season last week. Now that the field is on him, it is extremely easy to move elsewhere.

ANTONIO GIBSON:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Finally off the injury report in time for a divisional matchup with a Giants team allowing 26.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. That said, there is absolutely zero reason for the Football Team to serve Gibson with a hefty workload here, particularly considering the multitude of injury concerns Gibson has fought through this season. There are much better plays at the running back position on this slate.

JAMES CONNER:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Chase Edmonds is out, I get it. But, what I don’t get is the field automatically assuming a massive workload for Conner in his first game action in three weeks, when the Cardinals know they are playing next week in the Wildcard Round. Basically, if a play this week is more fragile than the field is giving credit for, I have no problem just completely fading it.

DAVID MONTGOMERY:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Has seen at least 68% of the offensive snap in every game since Week 9. That said, his lowest snap rate during that stretch came last week and the Bears are not playing for much here. Montgomery has hit the rushing bonus only twice all season and has returned 4x his Week 18 salary only once all season. Once again, there are better plays at the running back position this week.

JONATHAN TAYLOR:

Restrictive chalk. 266 yards short of the vaunted 2,000 rushing yards mark. While that seems like a ridiculous notion, JT went for 253 yards on the ground against this same franchise in Week 17 last year. The Jags are likely going to have to keep this game within reason for JT to see the requisite workload to approach that lofty total, making me highly interested in one of Marvin Jones, Jr. or Laquon Treadwell on rosters that utilize Taylor.

DALVIN COOK:

Restrictive chalk. Excuse me, field, but I am not down with this one. Dalvin played only 54% of the offensive snaps last week after missing the previous contest, which came in a blowout loss to the Packers. The field’s reasoning is likely that Dalvin’s workload increases substantially in a game likelier to be played close. But, what is Minnesota’s motivation to run Dalvin heavily here, particularly considering they have nothing to play for, and Dalvin has missed two or more games in each of his professional seasons? I think it’s much likelier we see Alexander Mattison more involved here, and that little bit of uncertainty leads me to other, more certain plays.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON:

Restrictive chalk. Has seen double-digit looks in each game since Adam Thielen went down, but his role has changed significantly during that time. Jefferson has been running fewer of the high-upside routes that we’ve grown accustomed to during that span, instead being used more heavily as a possession-style pass-catcher. At his salary, that leaves very few paths to fantasy success and presents an interesting leverage fade this week.

COOPER KUPP:

Restrictive chalk. Enough said on Mr. Kupp.

CHRISTIAN KIRK:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Has seen double-digit looks exactly once this season and has returned 4x his Week 18 salary exactly twice. Kirk remains a player I would look to be targeting at low ownership and be looking elsewhere at elevated ownership.

ZACH ERTZ:

Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Nine or more targets in three consecutive weeks, but the upside is rather limited to touchdowns in a low aDOT role. He hasn’t scored a touchdown for the Cardinals since his two-score outburst against this same Seahawks team, way back in Week 11.

COLE KMET:

Expansive chalk. I mean, I guess the field is calling for Kmet to score his first touchdown all season this week?

BROWNS DEFENSE:

Expansive chalk. The token chalk pay-down option at the defensive position this week. You know my thoughts on chalk pay-down defenses.

BILLS DEFENSE:

Restrictive chalk. Wow, the field is finally cool with targeting the Bills defense, eh? The Bills lead the league in pressure rate and have generated 63 turnovers plus sacks so the field might be onto something here. 

Chalk Build:


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