Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
The field appears to be struggling with the lack of certainty on this slate. There are two things that allow me to come to that conclusion. First off, ownership expectations are highly concentrated on the players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis, but not necessarily on players, teams, games, or situations that could break the slate. Secondly, I expect game environment bets and utilization to be down due to recent field trends this season. That immediately presents ways to generate expected value. Taking it one step further, there are so many teams that are either playing with a backup quarterback or have nothing to play for at this point in the season, making weeding through those situations of the utmost importance as it pertains to attacking this specific slate. The field is going to struggle, let’s pop those OWS avatars at the top of the leaderboard this week!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Let’s call a spade a spade here. Bucky Irving has an elite matchup on the ground, and has a path to elite volume, but shares the backfield with Rachaad White. White has fumbled in consecutive games and could have fumbled the Tampa season away at the end of the game last week. This is a player with a wide range of outcomes, having a clear path to elite volume and production but also having a path to modest volume if White remains more involved. It’s a little scary to target him at the highest ownership on the slate, making me most interested in Irving in game environment bets.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I don’t understand this one, to be honest. Jones has not hit a 4x salary multiplier since Week 3, has gone over 100 yards just twice all season, and has not scored multiple times at all this year. He has also fumbled five times this season and could cede meaningful snaps to Cam Akers.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. It’s easy to get into the mind loop of thinking that an absence of one of the primary pass-catchers on an offense automatically means the remaining players will see higher concentration. Now go look at the game logs from the Packers this season. Yeah, Dontayvion Wicks without either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs did not automatically mean he was going to see more volume, or that Jayden Reed was going to see more volume, or that Tucker Kraft was going to see more volume, or that Romeo Doubs was going to see more volume, and so and for all of eternity. The truth of the matter is Wicks likely needs the game environment to go off to see true slate-breaking ceiling, even at his depressed salary. For that reason, I want Wicks in game environment bets, and I want to full-fade him on other rosters.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. BTJ has seen double-digit targets in each game since the team’s Week 12 bye, and 12 or more in the previous three games. He has returned 31.2 DK points or more in two straight while going over 100 yards in each game, scoring three times in that streak. On a slate lacking certainty, he appears to be one of the sharper ways to allocate salary.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I’m more torn on Saquon than JM this week. On one hand, he’s chasing history and should be an even larger focus of the offense with Jalen Hurts out. On the other hand, the Eagles have almost nothing left to play for, and I would guess they are prioritizing being healthy for the playoffs over playoff seeding after the disaster last year. This is all speculation, making his range of outcomes wider than it normally has been this season, meaning I would have more interest at lower ownership. We’ve been targeting Saquon all season at sub-5% ownership, making it a little more difficult to stomach at 20-25% ownership. If we removed the uncertainty, he would be one of the top raw plays on the slate, but the uncertainty is enough for me to pass a word of caution at high ownership.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane is averaging 5.1 receptions per game this season, which is truly remarkable. He has seen seven or more targets in each of the previous four games while catching six or more per game in that span. His floor is amongst the top at the position while he has hit 29.5 DK points in three of 15 games this season, good for a 20% hit rate. That’s good, not great, production. He’s a sharp way to allocate salary on a rather thin slate.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hockenson is my preferred target on the Vikings. The Green Bay defense took a while to install under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, but they are now playing their best football of the season. That said, they operate as a true tight end funnel. Hockenson hasn’t yet seen truly elite volume after returning from injured reserve, making him most valuable in game environment bets.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The absence of Jaire Alexander helps a little, but this is far from a sparkling matchup against a Packers defense playing their best football of the season. It’s Justin Jefferson, so we know he can still hit in any matchup, but I would confine Jefferson to game environment bets this weekend.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Packers have allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, 209.7 pass yards per game, and just 19.1 points per game. This defense is far different than the first time these two teams met. That said, this game could still turn into something you had to have this week, meaning I prefer Darnold (and the rest of the Vikings) in game environment bets.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Ridley has hit a 4x salary multiplier three times in 15 games, good for a 20% hit rate. That isn’t the best but it’s also not the worst. I prefer Ridley in game environment bets.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Evans needs 182 yards over his final two games and the Buccaneers have everything to play for these last two weeks. He gets a Panthers defense playing the third most single-high, an alignment he absolutely dominates. Yes, please.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. I get it, Ferguson is coming off a nine-target game and is now playing without CeeDee Lamb on the field. But man, the matchup is brutal, and we know the Cowboys would prefer to not ask Cooper Rush to throw the football more than 28-32 times. That’s a questionable setup at borderline extreme ownership.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Man, I hate being on board with cheap-chalk defenses in DFS. The problem is the Raiders are in such a good spot against a Saints team that has proven to be largely incapable of moving the football in its current state. I’m weirdly okay with it.
