Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
The Strange Gibbs slate is one without direction beyond the top two chalkiest plays. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and Brenton Strange are expected to garner scary ownership, but the field appears uncertain where to go after that. We’re seeing this uncertainty reflected in ownership expectations, largely showcased via quarterback ownership. Anthony Richardson and Michael Penix Jr. combine to account for 30% or more of the expected ownership on the slate while no other quarterback sniffs even 10%. Wide receiver ownership is once again concentrated heavily on the mid-range in player pricing. The field just seems to be lost, which the state of the slate likely has a large responsibility for.
The biggest influence on those expected tendencies is likely the absence of a true “top game environment,” with the field then adopting an overreliance on median projections. We’ve talked about those tendencies a bunch this season, which represent a departure from optimal theory in DFS. As we know from our game theory knowledge, any departure from optimal incurs a subsequent hit to the expected value, but if you aren’t making up for that dip in EV with something designed to boost EV, you’re simply making a suboptimal play. With that understanding, we must ensure any departure from optimal theory is purposefully generating exploitation on the field that brings a boost to EV. Recent tendencies from the field indicate suboptimal play, which is exactly what we will continue to leverage moving forward.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. From my write-up of this game:
“The Lions have yet to play a game this season without both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but they did play three games early in the 2023 season without Montgomery. In those three games, Gibbs held snap rates of 60%, 87%, and 70% while handling opportunity counts of 19, 21, and 31. Also remember, those were his third ever professional game, his fifth ever professional game, and his sixth ever professional game. Montgomery saw snap shares of 71% in the game Gibbs got hurt in Week 4 of 2023 and 75% in the next game without Gibbs in Week 5. The stage certainly appears to be set for Gibbs to see a massive workload considering this team is currently fighting to hold onto their top seed in the NFC (they currently hold tie-breakers over the Vikings for head-to-head record (they play once more this season) and the Eagles for best winning percentage in conference games), despite early-week rumblings from head coach Dan Campbell saying they need to be smart with Gibbs in the absence of Montgomery. The matchup on the ground is borderline elite against a Bears defense allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt (2.52), 4.7 yards per carry (27th), and 22.7 fantasy points per game (fourth most) to opposing backfields this season.”
Consider Gibbs the top on-paper play at any position.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Brenton Strange saw 12 targets on 46 Mac Jones pass attempts a week ago, but that game marked only the second time in five starts that Jones threw for even a single touchdown, and the first time he attempted more than 32 passes in a game this season. I would classify that performance as an extreme outlier rather than the norm, making Strange a much shakier bet at extreme ownership. I’m fine looking elsewhere this week.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Enough has been said about Chase Brown’s current role in this offense to where we don’t need to restate it again here. Suffice it to say, Brown’s recent workload and involvement in the offense have been nothing short of elite, but his salary has finally caught up to his production and volume. He’s a fine play on paper.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. James Conner has seen between 18 and 23 opportunities 10 times this season but has not seen more than 23 opportunities once, making it highly likely we see him handle 18-23 opportunities against the Panthers. The good news is that his matchup is pristine, with the obvious caveat that his path to an elite fantasy score is much more narrow than other backs priced in his range due to the likely volume constraints. That likely holds true even with Emari Demercado on injured reserve and Trey Benson ruled out as the team has DeeJay Dallas on the active roster (questionable, illness) and can elevate Michael Carter and/or Tony Jones from the practice squad. Solid on-paper play, albeit one that is clearly a tier or two below Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Here’s a fun fact regarding these Giants: the Giants have two passing touchdowns in their last nine games. Lolz. Malik Nabers has seen double-digit targets in nine of 12 games this season, keeping his weekly floor high, but he has very few paths to an elite fantasy score in the current state of this team.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. DJ Moore is a solid on-paper play but I prefer using him in conjunction with Caleb Williams rather than a targeted one-off, the latter of which seems to be the preferred method by the field this week.
