Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is a solid 12-gamer as byes are over but there are two Monday Night Football games. With a bigger slate comes more opportunities for outlier production to develop, meaning we are likely to require a higher score than the median in 2024 to ship GPPs this week. Game totals are also up from the median in 2024, which adds to the chances we see higher scores shipping tournaments (okay, not higher than last week, but higher than the median this season). The slate itself is unique in that it appears to be giving us plenty of options from which to choose our primary stacks but there is a distinct lack of elite plays on paper. And yet, the field is expressing high degrees of certainty in various spots this week, as evidenced by the extreme ownership we are expecting on numerous players. This presents an interesting dynamic to the slate where it won’t take a lot to generate meaningful leverage away from the chalk and chalk build.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jonathan Brooks is out for the season, Miles Sanders is on injured reserve, and Raheem Blackshear failed to log a full practice this week while dealing with a chest injury. Converted wide receiver Velus Jones is the next man up on the active roster. Chuba Hubbard is coming off a 31-opportunity game and gets a Cowboys defense allowing 2.46 yards before contact per attempt (fourth most), the third most rush yards per game (141.9), and the fourth most fantasy points per game (23.2) to opposing backfields this season. He is a solid on-paper play this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Bucky Irving currently ranks as the overall RB18 while Rachaad White currently ranks as the overall RB21 in PPR formats. If you combine their fantasy production to date, you get 343.6 PPR points to date, which is 43.6 more points than Saquon Barkley, the overall RB1, has scored this year. Should Bucky Irving miss Week 15, White is expected to see his role in the offense grow enough to be considered a true RB1 against the Chargers. The matchup is far from ideal, but that level of production should not go overlooked from the Buccaneers this season, making White an absolute steal at a salary of just $5,800.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. James Conner has a season-high of 22.4 DK points while failing to return a 4x salary multiplier in any game this year. He is expected to be on almost 25% of the rosters in play this weekend. No thank you, Charlie Brown.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase Brown has seen 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in five consecutive games while averaging 24.4 opportunities per game, with a robust 6.8 of those per game coming via targets. His opponent in the Titans has allowed 20.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. He is a fine on-paper play this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Stone Smartt should serve as the primary pass-catching tight end for a Chargers team that ranks ninth in pass rate over expectation of the previous month of play, against a clear pass-funnel and inside-funnel Buccaneers defense. He is a tick over min-price on DraftKings. But what makes him gain viability this week is the general lack of top options that can put the slate out of reach, one of whom is a chalky tight end who has yet to score a receiving touchdown this season (Trey McBride).
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. From my write-up of the Dallas game: “Over the last three games, Dowdle has been given a true lead back/borderline workhorse role, during which time he has averaged 70% of the offensive snaps while seeing 20 or more running back opportunities in every game. That newfound workload is meaningful considering the Panthers have allowed the fifth most yards before contact per attempt (2.46), the most rush yards per game (170.1), and the most fantasy points per game (27.0) to opposing backfields this season.” Dowdle is a solid on-paper play this week.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. From my write-up of the Houston game: “Running back Joe Mixon is one of a dying breed of true workhorses remaining in the league. He has seen 20 or more opportunities in every game since Week 7 while averaging a ridiculous 23.5 opportunities per game in the last eight games. He has also scored 24.9 DK points in six of 10 appearances this season, meaning he has hit a 3x salary multiplier his Week 14 salary at a ridiculous 60% frequency while going over 100 yards on the ground in seven on 10 games. That, my friends, is bonkers. The matchup on the ground is less than ideal against a Dolphins defense ceding 1.56 yards before contact per attempt, 4.3 yards per carry (12th), and 21.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (21st), but his elite workload and red zone role give him one of the highest raw ceilings at the position on the slate.” Mixon is a solid on-paper play this week.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I’m not sure why the field feels compelled to play a pass-catcher who is delivered the football by a quarterback ranked 46th in fantasy points per game, one who has scored more than just 8.24 DK points in one of four starts this season. Jones now has 41 interceptions to 48 career touchdowns. The Jets also ranked first in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season at just 23.1. Have fun with this one.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Trey McBride currently stands as the overall TE2, all while failing to score a receiving touchdown this season (he has one rushing score and also fell on a fumble in the end zone). He has returned a 4x salary multiplier his Week 15 salary twice in 12 games but has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. I don’t think the field realizes they are paying for floor with McBride.
