Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Bruh, this slate is straight trippin’. There were over a hundred new additions to the league’s COVID list this week alone, there were three games moved to either Monday or Tuesday (one from Saturday and two from Sunday’s main slate), and we’re late in the season where teams are already dealing with significant injuries. Buckle up, because everything could change between now and Sunday afternoon. I’ve spoken to the idea of “information overload” a couple of times already this season, but this week is taking it to a whole new level. What happens when there are so many moving pieces on a slate? The field generally struggles to identify the top plays on the slate and general DFS theory errors are more prevalent. The difference between this slate and the previous two where we had a bunch of moving pieces is that we are expected to see a few spots of immense chalk this week. We’ll talk more about that below.
Restrictive chalk. It makes sense from the perspective of crowd psychology why the highest-priced quarterbacks would come in as the two expected to garner the most ownership on a slate like this. I paired these two together to highlight a couple of things:
(1) This slate is filled with uncertainty and the field is likely to resort to comfort when starting their builds this week, and there is no better feeling than taking the quarterbacks from the two teams with the highest Vegas implied team totals.
(2) Almost a third of the field is expected to pay up for one of these two quarterbacks, providing one of the bigger roster construction funnels of the slate due to their pay-up nature.
For more of my thoughts on these two quarterbacks relative to their expected ownership, check out the Edge write-ups for each respective game.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. Robinson is expected to be the single highest-owned player of any slate this season this week, checking in with between 45-50% ownership, depending on where you look. While he is clearly the best on-paper play from a salary-to-range-of-outcomes perspective, any player expected to be on almost half of the rosters on a main slate should give us a lot to think about. I will reiterate something though, Robinson is very clearly the top on-paper point-per-dollar play on the slate.
Expansive chalk. 35-40% ownership on a wide receiver holding a likeliest range of outcomes of seven to nine targets. More on this below.
Expansive chalk. Man, I really, really liked Gabe Davis before I saw his expected ownership, as early in the week I was thinking that he might be the forgotten piece from this Bills offense. But 25%+ expected ownership is a tough pill to swallow for a likeliest range of outcomes of five to seven targets. Thinking through what rostering Davis does to a roster, the combined production of Davis, and whomever he allows you to pay up for has to significantly outperform two mid-range players at a high frequency, considering the expected ownership. The most obvious combination on this slate is Josh Allen (or Kyler Murray) + Gabriel Davis. This presents an immense roster construction funnel, and I would contend the range of outcomes of a mid-range quarterback and a mid-range wide receiver is higher than an Allen + Davis pairing this week.
Restrictive chalk. Hands down, without a doubt the highest raw ceiling on the slate.
Restrictive chalk. It only took the field (and the DraftKings pricing algorithm) a year and a half to catch up to Diontae. The floor is absolutely locked-in, but there are better spots to spend his inflated salary, in my opinion.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. Kirk and AJ Green are the two players most likely to see a bump in production in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins on a standard week. The problem is that this is not a standard week for the Cardinals, who are highly likely to be able to control this game with their defense and their backfield tandem. I will say that both Kirk and Green’s range of outcomes takes on another slight bump should Zach Ertz, who was added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury, miss this game.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. 18-20% ownership on a tight end with a likeliest range of outcomes of six to eight targets. More on this below.
Neither restrictive now expansive chalk. Very solid on-paper play, but are there better plays on this slate? More on this below.
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