Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is a lot of fun. There is a very clear path that the field seems intent on taking when it comes to salary allocation, while there is no clear game environment that the field is likeliest to gravitate toward. At wide receiver, ownership expectations are all over the place behind the clearly underpriced mid-range players who are likely to grab some solid ownership. Those three aspects are likely to lead to a massive chunk of the field that has constructed rosters similarly, making smart leverage generation of the utmost importance. Those “if-then” statements are going to be HUGE this week. With that, let’s dive in!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
*If Kenneth Walker is out. EXPANSIVE CHALK. Kenneth Walker missed two games early in the season, during which time Charbonnet saw snap rates of 96% and 84% and opportunity counts of 19 and 22 while scoring three total touchdowns. Also, nine of those opportunities were targets, meaning Charbonnet is expected to carry enough pass game involvement to offset the need for multiple touchdowns to return a GPP-viable score. All of that wrapped into a salary of just $4,800. If Walker misses (failed to practice at all this week and is listed as questionable heading into the weekend), Charbonnet becomes a borderline must-play for me, and I’ll figure out other ways to differentiate.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Yet again, Kamara seems to be winning the battle between him and Saquon Barkley, at least as far as ownership expectations go. That is music to my ears as Barkley is the far superior play on paper. So much so that the only way I am considering playing Kamara is if paired with Barkley, which becomes increasingly difficult to pull off considering the state of the slate. I used a lot of words, both spoken and written, this week to talk about this stance, but I’ll finalize things on The Slate podcast at noon instead of writing another 1,000 words on it here!
EXPANSIVE CHALK. I get it, Jennings is going to project extremely well this week in a borderline must-win game at home against the Bears, but the Bears have been legitimately good against opposing WR1s and have filtered large chunks of production to opposing tight ends and running backs.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jakobi Meyers has averaged over 10 targets per game over his last three games and combines with Brock Bowers to account for a massive chunk of the expected volume through the air for the Raiders. Those two players represent solid on-paper bets for their respective ranges of outcomes on this slate.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. His price has come down to a point where the field is jumping back on a sinking ship. I will continue to be lower than the consensus on Atlanta pass-catchers, particularly so against a Vikings opponent that generates pressure at a top-10 rate. Why? Kirk Cousins has been legitimately awful when under pressure this season and has only two scrambles all season. Sacks should be there for the Vikings this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. A physical specimen running back that has had his pass-catching chops talked up by Kyle Shanahan this week, in a winnable matchup on the ground against a Chicago defense best attack via that method, all for a price of just $5,400. Again, I can find other ways to differentiate this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Allen has fallen far from the efficiency metrics of Breece Hall in New York this season, making it clear he has yet to fully develop his skill set for the NFL game. While a physical freak himself, we should also expect Isaiah Davis to see some run in the backfield for a Jets team that is both floundering on offense and seemingly mailing it in to end the year.
