Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is all jacked up on Mountain Dew. You have to squint really hard to find any semblance of floor anywhere. And I love it! We have access to all kinds of talent through low ownership this week, and the field appears to be extremely certain in a couple of spots that don’t carry much certainty. And I haven’t even mentioned the multitude of reeling teams as far as injuries and/or COVID goes. I have a feeling the field is going to get a bad case of information overload on this slate as they struggle to decipher the plethora of changing dynamics across the league. And that’s exactly what we’re here to capitalize on! You’ve seen this plastered everywhere across the site this week, but we have only one game with a game total north of 50 points this week, and only three games that fall in the “magic range” (47.0-49.5). Let’s embrace some uncertainty, shall we?
The highest point per dollar median projection of any player (a tick below 4x salary multiplier), who also carries the fourth highest 90th percent outcome ceiling on the slate, per the GPP ceiling tool. The kicker is that he’s priced at only $5,600 on DraftKings. I won’t be overthinking this one.
I get the feeling the field expects Mr. Ekeler to see a guaranteed double-digit target workload here (spoiler: it’s not guaranteed that Ekeler sees double-digit looks!). A large part of Ekeler’s value comes from his insane red zone role, but did you know the Giants have allowed only one team across their last six games to surpass 20 points, or that they rank 10th in the league in red zone scoring rate against at 54.35%? Just sayin’.
This one likely depends on the status of JD McKissic, who returned to a limited practice on Friday as he works his way through the concussion protocol. Either way, the Cowboys have surrendered only 20.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, good for third in the league.
Josh Jacobs played 85% of the offensive snaps last week in a game Kenyan Drake was lost for the year. Jalen Richard is still in the COVID protocol and is looking legitimately questionable to make it back in time. In last week’s game, Jacobs set a career-high for targets with nine. The Chiefs are best attacked on the ground and through the short-to-intermediate middle of the field, the area where Jacobs would see his pass game usage. Finally, the Chiefs have allowed an 83% completion rate and 8.83 yards per reception to running backs this season. Throw in Jacobs’ heavy red zone role and inflated touchdown equity and you get one of the top running back plays on paper (assuming Richard misses).
This one also likely depends on the status of one of his teammates, as Melvin Gordon III is currently questionable with hip and shoulder injuries. Williams’ floor would take a significant hit should Melvin return, but the ceiling is very much intact against a Lions defense allowing 28.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Is it recency bias or is it the act that Fournette has averaged a healthy 84% snap rate over the previous two contests? Either way, Fournette is primarily utilized as a straight-ahead runner, directly into the strength of the Bills rush defense (Star Lotulelei and Tremaine Edmunds). If you watched the Colts/Bills game or the Patriots/Bills game, you probably saw the success of attacking the Bills off-tackle, where wide receivers and tight ends could help set the edge and spring the running backs into the second level. That is unlikely to be how Fournette is utilized. The healthy receiving role keeps his floor high, but the matchup and scheme are significant hits to his ceiling here.
If you were to tell me the Chargers were going to utilize Mike Williams in the prototypical “X” wide receiver role in the absence of Keenan Allen, he would be the top wide receiver play on the slate this week. The problem is we have no clue what the Chargers are going to do with Williams, but we do know they have been reluctant to alter his new downfield role over the previous two months of play. If the field is certain his role is changing, but we have zero degree of certainty – well, you know where I stand.
Godwin back in his more natural slot wide receiver role is a significant boost to his weekly expectation, but the matchup is far from ideal against the Bills this week. Tom Brady has a long-standing track record of struggling against Sean McDermott defenses, introducing some level of uncertainty here.
Moving on (lolz, wtf emoji, I’m going to go cry myself to sleep over this one).
Whoa, a mid-range chalk defense? There must really be no hope for the pay-down options this week! I get it, Davis Mills and little to no supporting cast. But damn, a defense that has averaged only one turnover a game is chalk this week? There are better options available.
<< Unlock The Rest Of End Around>>