Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This is the first main slate in some time that holds no less than four quarterbacks and offenses that could destroy the slate. As we’ve talked about in the past, the viability of lower-tier quarterbacks (and offenses) swings wildly from slate-to-slate, except we’ve seen extremely tight player pricing this season, enough to increase the number of times that pay-down quarterbacks (and offenses) have been viable to us. On this particular slate, we’re much more likely to need 30+ fantasy points from our quarterback, and we’re much less likely to see a 15-18-point score from a skill position player matter. As such, our process for constructing rosters should be fundamentally different, ignoring salary multiplier in favor of raw point upside. Let us begin!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chase Brown has seen opportunity counts of 32, 24, and 29 in the three games played without Zack Moss, with a ridiculous 23 of those opportunities coming in the form of targets. We’re talking about De’Von Achane levels of pass game involvement (slightly more, actually) but with heavier rushing volume, at a price of $6,200 instead of around $8,000. Sounds pretty sweet to me.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The field simply cannot shake Alvin Kamara after his three-touchdown game earlier this season. I get it, but a better way to view Kamara is that he has returned a GPP-viable score in two of 11 games this season and is subject to weekly torment by means of the great troll (said lovingly) Taysom Hill.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Evan Engram is highly likely to approach or surpass double-digit targets against the Texans while playing without Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. That said, he has proven to carry modest, at best, touchdown equity while playing for a position that derives immense value from finding paint.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Cheap chalk defense. Hmmmmm.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Bijan Robinson has seen his involvement in the offense jump in recent weeks, seeing opportunity counts of 26, 20, 26, and 24 before seeing just 16 in a blowout loss to the Broncos in Week 11 before their bye. The most promising aspect of that slight uptick in volume is that almost six per game of those were targets. I prefer different running backs this slate, in a vacuum, but that doesn’t change the fact that Robinson is a pretty solid on-paper play.
