Thursday, Sep 21st

End Around 13.22

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max


Boy, oh boy, this slate is fun! We leave behind the days of poor game environments and find ourselves with a slate with top teams playing each other, some hyper-concentrated sides, and some quite frankly weird chalk. Furthermore, the slate feels wide open from the perspective of being able to identify where the field is going, opening the door for us to have a little fun with roster building this week. There are also numerous high upside spots that are going generally overlooked by the field. In all, this creates a dynamic slate with more freedom to maneuver than we’ve seen in the recent past.


Quick explanation: restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.


Nothing really left to say about Jacobs, who has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season. His workload is elite, his offensive line is elite, and the matchup is elite. He is listed as questionable with his calf injury but he was last week too before playing 79% of the offensive snaps in an overtime win, including ripping off the walk-off touchdown on an 86-yard eruption.


Look, Walker can hit under the right conditions, and he should see significant work against the Rams, but Walker has been one of the least efficient starting running backs this season based on his underlying metrics. He also has exactly one game with more than four targets this season, leaving him firmly established in the realm of yardage and touchdown backs. That’s not typically something I want exposure to at high expected ownership.


The big concern here is his health after head coach Doug Pederson removed him from last week’s contest after just five offensive snaps with a foot injury. He was reportedly fine to return to the game, but his coach held him out anyway out of an abundance of caution. That raises some concerns surrounding his expected workload in one of the best pure matchups he will see all season.


Wilson has a weak 8.4 aDOT, moderate 26.8% targets per route run rate, and modest 22.6% team target market share on a team highly unlikely to push the pace or turn to the air on their own, leaving a very thin needle to thread for him to return GPP viability. He feels safe this week which is why he is currently expected to garner the highest ownership on the slate (we’ll cover more of his situation and other similar situations on The Slate podcast).


The Jacksonville defense naturally funnels pass game production to the middle of the field, which plays nicely into the expected volume and production of Sun God here. Not much else to say other than I would 100% pair him with a member of the Jaguars as his clearest path to top-end production comes in a game environment where each team is putting up points.


I am at a complete loss with this one, which is likeliest due to the state of the slate. As in, rosters are simply likeliest to prioritize production at other positions, leaving people hunting for certain volume at a variant position.


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