Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
The field is expressing such a massive degree of certainty on this slate, as evidenced by the current ownership projections. What I see is a large swath of ownership expected in the mid-range of wide receiver pricing, two pay-down options at running back, and pay-up tight ends. But if we take that information in the context of this slate, we find that the places where the field is expressing certainty aren’t all that certain at all.
Furthermore, there aren’t any quarterbacks that have “put the slate out of reach” upside, at least not at great frequency, but there also aren’t many quarterbacks that are priced up on this slate. That means we should expect the field to demonstrate very clear intentions as far as salary allocation and roster construction are concerned.
Finally, there is one true game environment that could turn into something you had to have on this slate, and it currently appears as if players from that game are going to garner ownership that falls well short of expectations with that setup. All of that to say, it isn’t going to take much to generate meaningful leverage on this slate. I absolutely love slates like this!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. A running back that ranks third in expected fantasy points per game against the opponent ceding the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs at a price of just $5,700 sounds pretty neat to me.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. As we’ve said in the past (and will continue to until his salary is changed to reflect his role), De’Von Achane is one of the most materially underpriced players on the slate.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is the hardest one for me because the matchup, game environment, and role clearly point to Brian Robinson being a solid on-paper play, but at the same time, this is an offense that rarely provides enough volume for a single player to return a GPP-viable score. Even so, I am interested here.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where I think it is prudent to ask ourselves the question “what do we win if we’re right?” As in, how many paths does Jakobi Meyers have in this spot to return a score you could not win without? Very few.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where I think it is prudent to ask ourselves the question “what do we win if we’re right?” As in, how many paths does Courtland Sutton have in this spot to return a score you could not win without? Very few.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. This is one of those spots where I think it is prudent to ask ourselves the question “what do we win if we’re right?” As in, how many paths does James Conner have in this spot to return a score you could not win without? Very few.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I think it is at least reasonable to consider the fact that three of Kelce’s four games with double-digit targets this season came in games played without both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Rashee Rice. It could be a signal of how this team wants to utilize their aging tight end during the regular season. As in, Kelce has just one game of double-digit looks in six appearances with either Rice or Smith-Schuster active. I don’t know if we can write that off as a coincidence.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I get it, Joe Mixon has seen an absolutely elite role on an offense in the top half of the league in scoring. But man, this is not the best spot for him when considering the likeliest game environment and matchup. I don’t think I would rather spend the salary on Mixon over wide receivers with massive upside (more on this below).
expires end of 12/2!
