Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
NINE players on the Week 10 main slate are expected to garner 20% or more ownership, with five of them being running backs, one defense (lolz), and one cheap tight end (lolz). Josh Downs is also knocking on the door, and I expect him to jump up into the 20%+ category come Sunday morning. That is a whole lot of certainty for a slate that is probably the most uncertain all season. Think about the ramifications of those ownership levels. One-third of the field is certain that Aaron Jones, a player that has hit a 3x multiplier once in eight games, let alone a GPP-viable 4x multiplier (also once, from the same game), is the top play on the slate. Because what, he is maybe $300 underpriced relative to his role and the matchup. A single defense is currently projected to be on 25% of rosters in play this weekend. WHAT? A banged-up Deebo Samuel, who has not seen more than seven targets since Week 2, is projected to be on 20%+ of rosters in play in a game where the 49ers get back Christian McCaffrey. Is a $3,100 tight end with three games all season over three targets where we want to place our money?
The field is spending up at running back, which has been a shift in the meta after numerous years where the goal was to spend as little as possible at the position following the age of the workhorse – and almost every running back is priced up relative to their median expectation. With low game totals and tight pricing with no relative value, we can start to see fairly quickly how Will Dissly and the Chicago defense and Ladd McConkey start to garner ownership. Ownership always congregates, but good Lord, not like this.
As we said earlier, this is the slate of uncertainty. It is what defines it, shapes it, and influences our decisions. So, instead of gravitating towards the players who project slightly better than those around them, stick to the basics, attack some game environments (or teams), find value in ways the field is not (more on this below), and get comfortable being uncomfortable!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Aaron Jones has hit a 3x multiplier on his Week 10 salary once and a 4x multiplier once (same game) through eight games played. Jones projects for the second highest point-per-dollar median on the slate, which is likely what is driving his ownership here.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I was really hoping Jamaal Williams came back this week so we could watch 30% of the field play Kamara, but alas, Kamara is the only back of note on the roster yet again. Kamara carries a solid expectation of 18-22 carries and has seen seven or more targets in six consecutive games.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. I get it, the Bears rank seventh on the slate in pressure rate while the Patriots have ceded the highest pressure rate in the league. I personally refuse to play any defense at ungodly ownership, particularly so when said defense contributes so heavily to the chalk roster construction.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Deebo is clearly not fully healthy after failing to log a full practice in the week coming off the team’s bye. He has also seen no more than seven targets in every game since Week 2. Oh yeah, and some dude by the name of Christian McCaffrey is back this week. I personally don’t see this one.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Swift has been as consistent as they come of late. That said, you have to go all the way back to his rookie season to find a game in which he went for 100 yards and multiple scores. The state of this slate is such that he doesn’t necessarily need that level of production to be viable, but it’s an interesting data point, nonetheless. I believe Swift’s inflated ownership levels to be highly influenced by the ownership on his defense.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Come on, guys.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Hall has seen his borderline workhorse status ebb and flow, but he currently appears to be back in a demi-workhorse role. That said, he still has only one game all season over 22 running back opportunities.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Conner is the steady engine that could this season, but he faces an uphill battle each week to return a usable GPP score. He has a high hit rate of 3x on his Week 10 salary (four of nine), but he has yet to return a 4x multiplier, has yet to score multiple touchdowns in a game, and has just one game with more than three receptions.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. McConkey is highly likely to see six to eight targets and highly unlikely to see many more than that range on a weekly basis. On a modest 9.3 aDOT, that is a mighty fine needle to thread for GPP upside.
