Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
We simply don’t know as much as we think we know about these teams. Look at Saquon Barkley on Friday, or Travis Kelce and Isaiah Likely on Thursday. Fantasy gamers fall into a false sense of security early in the season based on the six months of preparation we’ve done prior to the start of the regular season. And then the first kick happens on a team’s first game, and we’re left wondering why we came to the conclusions we did during that research. Get rid of the weight of the previous six months. Each new slate presents a new puzzle to unlock. We’ll gather more information with each passing week, but we must be honest with the fact that we simply don’t know as much as we think we know about these teams in Week 1.
With that out of the way, Week 1 of 2024 presents an extremely interesting slate with some very clear expectations from the field. We should expect DFSers to wake up on Saturday having had 12 hours to process the news from Cincinnati regarding Tee Higgins’ expected absence and Ja’Marr Chase’s status as either out or limited. They’ll have had 12 hours to process the news that Justin Fields is expected to start for the Steelers.
Beyond that, we don’t exactly have the standard Week 1 running back that enters a more robust role than was initially accounted for when pricing came out, playing for a top expected offense. There haven’t been any major injuries at the position during camp and preseason, which is atypical for this time of year. That means we’re likely to see the field scrambling to unlock the “skeleton key to the slate,” feverishly searching for the cheap piece that allows access to Tyreek Hill (the player projected for the top raw score amongst skill position players on the slate). Which brings us back to the Bengals and Andre Iosivas. More on this below in the “chalk build” section.
Finally, there is a copious number of players priced lower than they should otherwise be on this slate, which is a function of multiple aspects of running a DFS business. And then there are the players that might never be priced this low for the rest of the season, let alone the rest of their career.
If you’re new to One Week Season, Inner Circle, or the End Around, I structure this piece using a top-down approach, first looking at the macro, or defining, aspects of the slate before examining the chalk, scrutinizing how the chalk fits together on a roster to identify how the field is expected to allocate salary, and finishing with +EV ways to generate leverage on the field by exploiting their tendencies.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A top two (one?) wide receiver in the league playing at home, where the team averaged 7.9 more points per game than on the road in 2023. Checks out to me.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. There is a whole lot of assumptions that Rachaad White’s massive workload from the 2023 season will carry over into the new season. New offensive coordinator. New rookie competition. Cake pass-game matchup. There’s a lot of red flags here for me.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Kamara managed 4x his Week 2 salary three times in 13 games played last season. They came in a 14-target game and two multi-touchdown games. The four scores in those two games were four of six total scores on the season. His rushing efficiency is down. His red zone role is down. Taysom Hill looms as the preferred goal line “back.” The field’s focus on Kamara in Week 1 blows me away.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Cheap tight end on an offense we expect to make one of the bigger leaps in year-over-year pass rates this season. That said, what if Pitts just isn’t as good as everyone wants him to be based on his measurables? Reports surfaced this offseason that Pitts continues to struggle with attacking the football at the point of reception, hence all the passes defended on his targets. I tend to agree, to be frank. Of the 140 tight ends to run a route in 2023, Pitts ranked 80th in average separation score. So, he’s not separating, he’s not attacking the football, and he’s not producing (0.31 fantasy points per route run in 2023, which is the same as hardened killers Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson, and Tucker Kraft). Just sayin’.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Drake London lacks the speed (4.54 40-yard dash) and athleticism to provide high upside, down-field layering in his route tree, requiring elite volume to return a GPP-worthy score. Could he see that volume here? Absolutely. Is it as certain as the field seems to be thinking? Hell no.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I’ve been hunting for holes to poke in Walker’s Week 1 fantasy profile. Quite frankly, I can’t find many. The only knock would be that he’s not an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield, making his projection a bit more fragile than in other spots on the slate. That said, he has the opportunity to be a true workhorse in this offense, which we expect to take steps forward in efficiency.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Iosivas isn’t currently listed as one of the top expected ownership plays on the slate, but I have a feeling that might change over the next 36 hours before lock (I’m writing this Friday evening). The field is likely going to utilize Iosivas to access Tyreek Hill’s upside without sacrificing median projection throughout the remainder of the roster.
