Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
The Betting Discord has been on absolute fire the last few weeks, so much so that members of the discord have put together a google sheet to track the groups success. Unsurprisingly, this week’s results show the quality of information and communication being shared is on another level. Best of all, everyone has their niche! Anyone who wants to contribute to the OWS Discord Betting Tracker is welcome to DM their email on Discord for an editor link- everyone else is welcome to use this as a resource of fun bets to tail in the discord with the community!
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Najee Harris: Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (14 Receiving Yards)
The Pittsburgh Steelers laid an egg in a big divisional game last week, losing to the Cleveland Browns 41-10. The Steelers played from behind almost exclusively, giving us the script we wanted for Harris to be used in the passing game. However, Harris saw just five targets, catching three for 14 yards in the disappointing outing for the offense. Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 41 times, but with the game out of reach going into the fourth quarter, Harris just didn’t see the volume I was expecting, volume that the Cincinnati defense has funneled all year long.
Deebo Samuel: Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (12 Receiving Yards)
You are not going to have much success betting over 66.5 Receiving Yards on running backs very often. A shame Samuel got injured during his RB cameo, what a player. I thought the return of Elijah Mitchell last week would be enough for the San Francisco 49ers to return their all-purpose weapon to primarily catching the football, but instead, they just slotted him as their RB2. While quite effective on the ground before departing with injury with a six carry performance for 66 yards and two touchdowns, Samuel was only able to corral one of four targets for just 12 yards.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
2021: +37.14 Units
Book: BetRivers (-110)
“MIN ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (25.7).”
“Each defense ranks towards the bottom of the league against the run. Each defense also ranks in the bottom ten in the league in rush attempts faced per game (MIN: 27.8, DET: 31.4).”
“Detroit ranks 11th in second-half pace of play, ninth in pace of play when trailing by seven or more points, and third in second-half pass rate.”
“Expect the same 10-14 rush attempt and six to eight target ranges as Williams’ likeliest range of opportunities, in a matchup against a defense allowing 25.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.”
“Something like 65 rushing yards and 5-40 through the air is a pretty good, median starting point for Williams.”
I think we are seeing a combination of a couple of things that are setting this seemingly low receiving line for Jamaal Williams. First, he is not as dynamic as D’Andre Swift, the player he is replacing this week as a suspected bellcow. Second, he’s always been a committee back of sorts with strong competition in the receiving game from his backfield mate. Third, the Detroit Lions are winless. In reality, Williams has caught 143 balls on 173 targets, good for an 83% catch rate while averaging 7.5 yards per catch. I like Hilow’s range of six to eight targets against the Minnesota Vikings defense giving up over seven yards per catch to running backs, combined with JM’s median starting point of 5-40 through the air, as reasonable expectations for Williams here. With Jared Goff checking down no matter the script, there seems to be some added floor that should keep Williams active late into the game even in obvious passing situations.
Book: DraftKings (-115) BetRivers (97.5 -114)
“Over the last three weeks, Gibson has had 26, 19, and 36 touches.”
“LV ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.5).”
“The pure rushing matchup should be considered a plus against a run-funnel defense, yielding a 4.28 net-adjusted line yards metric.”
“Keep an eye on the status of JD McKissic heading into the weekend, who sustained a scary-looking head/neck injury, which was eventually labeled as “just” a concussion. His typical 40-60% snap rate would likely fall primarily onto Antonio Gibson’s shoulders.”
“As for Washington, the premier piece is running back Antonio Gibson, who we finally saw handle the type of workload most were expecting coming into the year (the pass game work was the biggest notable change here). His workload should be locked in this week, assuming JD McKissic misses with a concussion.”
“The Washington running back tandem of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic has combined to average 21 carries and 6.3 receptions per game. Over Washington’s last three games, these two have averaged 29.3 carries and 6.3 receptions per game. Gibson may not see ALL the work, but he’ll see most of it, which gives us a talented back in a good matchup who has a clear “expectation range” of around 25 touches.”
Last week, we finally got the usage for Antonio Gibson that fueled the preseason hype and vaulted Gibson to the second round in many fantasy drafts. Gibson received 29 carries for 111 yards, catching seven of seven targets for an additional 35 yards. With J.D McKissic ruled out this week with a concussion and Washington running backs accounting for the incredible usage outlined by JM in The Edge, 25+ touches from Gibson in this spot is within range. The Raiders are giving up over 141 total yards to RBs so far in 2021, in what could be Antonio Gibson’s real 2021 coming out party.
Book: BetRivers (-113)
“Ranks ninth in PFF passing grade.”
“Fourth in total passing attempts.”
“Averaging a significant career high in passing yards per game at 310.4 (previous best was 262.5).”
“WAS ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (25).”
“Washington’s heavy dime defensive packages and hefty reliance on zone principles have left significant gaps in coverage to the deep perimeter and shallow interior of the defense, which lines up rather well with the areas of the field the Raiders should be looking to attack here.”
“The second thing we need to consider is the already-low rush rates from the Raiders (seventh-highest overall pass rate on the season at 63%), which, when aligned with the pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, should lead to a very bankable avenue of attack for the Raiders.”
“As such, keep an eye on expected ownership here, particularly with the pass game, as quarterback Derek Carr has surpassed 300 yards passing in each Raider win this season (and failed to do so in each Raider loss).”
“The matchup with the Football Team should be considered one of the league’s most pass-funnel in nature (seventh in DVOA against the rush and 30th against the pass), leading to a poor 4.06 net-adjusted line yards metric.”
“The best part here is that “what the Raiders want to do through the air” lines up really well with the deficiencies in the Washington zone pass defense.”
“Speaking of Carr: he’s been central to my thought process this week.”
Derek Carr has been great in 2021, throwing for a league-leading 3414 passing yards, while quarterbacking the Las Vegas Raiders to a 6-5 record. This week he faces the pass funnel that is the Washington Football Team’s zone defense, which suits his and his teammate’s skill sets very well. The Raiders love to pass the ball in neutral matchups (63% on the season) and should only look to pass at an even higher rate in an expected close game versus a distinct pass funnel. We can expect Carr to be able to attack down the field for long splash plays, with the underneath area ripe with completable balls to keep the chains moving. The Raiders are 1.5 point favorites going into Sunday, setting the stage for one of Carr’s 300+ yard passing games to come to fruition with a Raiders win. Even in a close game, this matchup is a strong one for Carr to see increased pass game usage with a high likelihood of success.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.