Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.
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The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active over the last few weeks. There are bettors in there daily talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 11! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!
Joe Burrow: Over 268.5 Passing Yards
Result: Loss (148 Yards)
The Cincinnati Bengals used their bye week to study early-season game film and liked what they saw, coming out and running the ball early and often. Burrow threw the ball just 29 times, completing 20 for 148 yards with a single score to Ja’Marr Chase late, as the Bengals were able to ride a strong 4th quarter to their sixth victory of the season. With Joe Mixon continuing to have a strong season and Cincinnati’s defense playing above expectation, Burrow may have a couple more lackluster performances from a volume perspective moving forward. Of course, with a strong list of offensive weapons at his disposal, he will have his fair share of performances to remember, as well.
Myles Gaskin: Over 73.5 Total Yards
Result: Win (96 Yards)
Myles Gaskin dominated rushing attempts with Salvon Ahmed inactive in Week 11, carrying the ball 23 times for a modest 89 yards, with the remaining five rush attempts being split between Duke Johnson and Patrick Laird. Gaskin also chipped in with seven receiving yards and a score, catching three of four targets to end the game with 96 yards from scrimmage. Gaskin appears locked in as the Miami Dolphins lead runner, though he continues to be inefficient with the substantial workload.
Christian McCaffery: Over 114.5 Total Yards
Result: Win (119 Yards)
CMC waited until the last drive to cash this over as he was limited to just 17 touches, but this game was another reminder that he is in a league of his own at the running back position. McCaffery averaged 5.9 yards per carry on the ground on 10 carries, adding seven catches on eight targets for another 60 yards and a receiving score. There is every reason to expect his role will grow over the next few weeks, though Cam Newton’s rush share limits his rushing upside. The Panthers running back is a total yards dynamo.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
2021: +30.47 Units
Book: Bet MGM (-115)
“Deebo ranks 4th in yds/rec (18.1) (min 20 rec).”
“MIN ranks 29th in yards allowed/rec (11.5).”
“MIN is 30th in DK pts allowed to WRs (43.9).”
“We’re likeliest to see the 49ers dictate the game flow and the Vikings dictate the game environment, which is a positive to the game overall as the 49ers are set up in such a positive matchup.”
“Furthermore, each of these two offenses are extremely concentrated as far as expected volume and production goes.”
I thought this line would be quite a bit higher. It seems like this game environment is going a little bit under the radar, with both teams looked at as slow clock-killing machines. Minnesota games have averaged the ninth most combined plays this year, and they speed up to the second-highest pace of play when trailing by more than seven points. This is important in this game environment, as Vegas opened with the San Francisco 49ers favored by 6.5 points (since bet down to just 3.5), as we can expect Minnesota to push the pace a bit if they do find themselves behind. Minnesota has filtered nearly 22 targets per game to wide receivers (62%) while giving up 195 yards per game to the position. With the 49ers concentrated passing offense at the WR position, we can expect Samuel to efficiently carve out multiple splash plays in an ideal matchup for his skill set.
Book: Bet MGM (-118)
“Among qualified RBs, Harris ranks second in rush share, fifth in goal line share, fourth in target share, sixth in WOPR, and first in RBOPR.”
“CIN ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.2).”
“Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, perhaps opening a path to a more aggressive matchup than we would think at first glance.”
“This could be a fluke, the offense could be getting in a groove, or it could be driven by the defense not playing at the same elite level we’ve come to expect from Pittsburgh.”
“Najee Harris will still see a heavy workload and they won’t completely abandon the run (they can’t at this point in Ben’s career), but we should have limited expectations on what the production will look like.”
“The Bengals worst defensive games of the season were back-to-back weeks against the Jets and Browns where they were exploited by weaker armed QBs who dink and dunked their way down the field by attacking the short areas of the field.”
Last week, I was surprised that the Cincinnati Bengals used their bye week to get back to their early season ways, a slow pace with a high rush rate. Less surprisingly, they continued to push opportunities to running backs through the air, with Josh Jacobs and Keynan Drake combining for six catches on nine targets, albeit for just 30 yards. On the season, the Bengals have given up nearly 10 targets for seven and a half receptions and 58 yards per game to the running back position. The Pittsburgh Steelers second-highest receiving yards total from a running back in the 2021 season belongs to full back Derek Watt- with 15 yards, total. Non-starting PIT running backs have totaled just five receptions. This situation is not dissimilar in setup as the Week 11 matchup between these Bengals and the New York Jets. Better known as Mike White Week, the Jets completed 14 passes to running backs on 20 targets for 166 yards. Look for a savvy Big Ben and his wet pool noodle to follow suit and check down regularly in order to keep their best offensive weapon involved despite a tough matchup on the ground.
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