Thursday, Dec 8th
Bye Week:
Saints
Colts
Commanders
Packers
Bears
Falcons

Edge Bets 10.21.

Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting


<< Edge Bets Primer >>


Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.


Bet Tracker 2021 NFL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bppvhWA-n8Oqw2CQkVwCAOW5-7EOCEiDc-M38HQFZ3I/edit?usp=sharing

Follow me on Twitter for more. DMs open for any questions on how to get started or general Prop Betting Strategy!

@FriendofFantasy

The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active over the last week. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and Collage sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 10! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!

Week 9 Recap

EDGE BETS Week 9: 3-0
EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 15-15

Josh Jacobs: Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

Result: Win (76 Rushing Yards)

While we didn’t get the complete game script we wanted for Jacobs to see a season-high in carries, we did get the great efficiency needed to hit the over. Jacobs received 14/17 backfield carries, with Keyan Drake receiving just three. This game stayed close throughout, but Jacobs saw the field on just 49% of the snaps (34), which was below his seasonal average of 37. Regardless, Jacobs is seeing great usage when he is on the field, adding four catches (four targets) to his 14 carries for a total of 18 running back opportunities on just 34 snaps (53%).

Joe Burrow: Over 269.5 Passing Yards

Result: Win (282 Passing Yards)

Burrow and his Cincinnati teammates did not show up for this rendition of the Battle of Ohio, with Burrow throwing an interception at the goal line that was taken all the way to the house to give the Cleveland Browns an early 7-0 lead. The Bengals were able to tie it up 7-7 later in the quarter before going into the break down 24-10. This gave us the script we wanted for Burrow to air it out, before quickly becoming a race for Burrow to hit the number before the game got too far out of reach. 

Devonte Booker: Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

Result: Win (23 Receiving Yards)

Booker dominated both backfield touches and snaps before exiting with a hip injury in the 4th quarter. Booker caught all three of his targets for 23 yards early, leaving us with the majority of the game to sweat a catch behind the line of scrimmage for negative yards. Thankfully, Booker did not receive another target and was handed the ball a robust 21 times finishing just one yard shy of the century mark (he actually got hurt on a carry for negative yardage, poor guy). With Saquon Barkley expected back after the New York Giants Week 10 bye, it will be interesting to see if Booker has earned an increased workload as the backup moving forward. 

Personal Prop Bets Placed

Week 1: +10.0 Units

Week 2: -1.1 Units

Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)

Week 4: +4.65 Units

Week 5: +3.1 Units

Week 6: +2.4 Units

Week 7: -0.3 Units

Week 8: -5.7 Units

Week 9: +11.75 Units

2021: +24.8 Units

Week 10 Edge Bets

Matt Ryan Over 38.5 Passing Attempts

Book: Bet Rivers (-122)

By Lex:

“DAL has allowed the 5th most QB pass yds/g (287.9).”

“Ryan has thrown the 8th most pass att/g.”

By Hilow:

“Both teams rank in the top 10 in situation-neutral pace of play.”

“Atlanta will be passing based on necessity, as opposed to depending on game flow.”

“Atlanta’s pace of play when trailing by seven or more points ranks third in the league.”

“When a team is forced to the air out of necessity, as opposed to game script or environment, we get a situation where the pass volume is bankable regardless of environment. It starts to make sense why Matt Ryan has as many games over 40 pass attempts as he does under this season.”

“On the season, Atlanta ranks 25th in the league in rush attempts per game at 23.8.”

“With the understanding of the discussion above surrounding Atlanta and their forced aerial attack, we start to understand that Atlanta will be passing regardless of game flow.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

This appears like the ideal recipe for one of Matt Ryan’s over 40 pass attempt games, something he has achieved 50% of the time in the 2021 season. This is a pace-up game, with both teams ranking in the top 10 in situation-neutral pace, with the added likelihood that the Falcon’s play from behind (where their pace of play jumps to the top three when trailing by a converted touchdown or more). Conveniently, Dallas also keeps the pace of play high when winning by double digits, which is important for this match up with Dallas being favored by 9.5 in Week 10. With Randy Gregory hitting IR this week, the Cowboy’s defensive line takes a bit of a hit but against Atlanta’s subpar offensive line, it shouldn’t matter that much. The Falcons have no intention of running in any match-up, outlined by Hilow in The Edge as more of a personnel (having two running backs that are better catching passes than running between the tackles) issue than a bad string of matchups. 

Teddy Bridgewater Under 257.5 Passing Yards

Book: Bet Rivers (-115)

By Papy:

“Both coaches want to call a run-oriented game plan.”

“The Broncos play slowly in all circumstances.”

“The Broncos play slow (31st situational neutral pace), stay slow when winning (29th in pace when ahead), and barely speed up when losing (24th in pace when trailing). The Broncos move slow no matter what is happening in the game, and play like a team that is desperately trying to hide their QB.”

“Bridgewater was held under 30 attempts in both Broncos wins the past two weeks. Expect the same approach in this one, as the Broncos coaching staff will be happy to “hide” Bridgewater while trying to win with the ground game and defense.”

“The Broncos will try to suck the air out of this game, and the Eagles will be happy to slow it down if they are ahead, creating a lot of paths to a low-scoring contest. Neither team wants to throw, and there is a realistic chance both teams’ QBs finish below 25 attempts.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

Both these teams want to play slow and keep the ball on the ground. The Broncos do not change their pace of play much to match the situation, protecting us from being too heavily game scripted in a game Vegas has set a lowish total of 45.5 and a less than a field goal spread. The Eagles have flipped the script and started running at an extremely high situation neutral rate. Over the last three weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles have run at a 58% rate in Week 7, followed by 68% and 70% over the last two weeks. Both of those latter numbers ranked first overall in the given week. Teddy has gone under this number in three straight, in which the Broncos have gone 2-1, with their one loss coming in a 17-14 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Denver Broncos are going to be without three starting offensive linemen, making it unlikely they will have much success sustaining long drives and avoiding sacks. Expect the ball to remain on the ground, eating valuable clock throughout the afternoon, before being punted away.

J.D. Mckissic Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Book: DraftKings (-110)

By Lex:

“TB allowed the most RB rec in 2020; 7.3 rec/g allowed so far in 2021.”

“McKissic receiving: 0:0 // 5:83 // 2:15 // 5:44:1 // 1:8 // 8:65 // 4:34 // 8:83.”

By Hilow:

“Washington’s 10th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play (29.90) jumps over three seconds to 26.32 in the second half this season, which indicates a team that has both been playing from behind a ton this season and is remaining aggressive deep into those games, trying to fight back into contention.”

 “JD McKissic has seen a 40% or greater snap rate in every game since Week 1, peaking at 64% in Week 7. During that stretch of three truly difficult matchups, McKissic has turned snap rates of 61%, 64%, and 46% into target counts of 10, six, and eight. The matchup is the most difficult that the Football Team has seen all year on the ground, against an extreme pass-funnel Bucs defense.”

“We know the Bucs have surrendered more than the league average fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and tight ends, but they also have filtered 67 targets to opposing backfields as well.”

“McKissic has seen target counts of eight, six, and 10 over the previous three games, and we should expect that range to act as his floor in a matchup against a team that funnels pass-game work to the running back position.”

By JM:

“Finally, as Hilow noted, McKissic is very much in the mix.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

The narrative is widely known. You can’t run on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and really, no one really even tries. Both the matchup and the game script will be in J.D McKissic’s favor this Sunday, making him a great play across all platforms. With Antonio Gibson still suffering from the effects of his shin injury, the Washington Football Team’s coaching staff may take the opportunity to give Gibson a little bit of a breather in a game they will be playing from behind early. Both teams play fast and combine for high total play affairs, with the Bucs leading the league at 130 per contest. McKissic should be on the field plenty in a game script that suits his skill set perfectly. The Bucs funnel 21% of targets (8.4 targets per game), and the Bucs have allowed 59/69 targets to be completed. With JDM likely to lead the backfield in receiving opportunities, he will have a great chance at accumulating a large majority on the near 50 receiving yards a game Tampa has surrendered in 2021. McKissick should function as the second option in the passing game and could see 65%+ of snaps, which would be a season-high.

ActionLabs Props Tool

One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.


Thanks for hanging out with us in The Scroll this week!

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!