Dummy Grid 7.23
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Deshaun Watson
Jerome Ford
Aaron Jones
Amari Cooper
Zay Flowers
Terry McLaurin
Jonnu Smith
Rondale Moore
Patriots
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 100 Edge Points
3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
4th Place = 50 Edge Points
5th Place = 25 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Cooper Kupp
Not a whole lot needs to be said here. Throwing out the game in which he got hurt last year, Kupp has scored 20+ DraftKings points in 22/27 games since the start of 2021, while topping 26 points 17 times and scoring fewer than 16 points only once. On a week in which 30-point scores could be tough to come by, and “guys who can score 20 points” can also, easily, fall shy of that mark, the locked-in points provided by Kupp are more valuable than normal. From a “salary multiplier” standpoint, he’s an overpay; but he’s a sharp overpay nevertheless.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
Two-By-Two
Evans + Kupp
Story:
“Evans gets the bulk of the touches, and the Rams do well.”
Why It Works:
The Rams’ backfield has had four strong games and two disappointing games. In both of their disappointing games, the Rams’ WR1 posted season-lows, and in all four of their strong games, the Rams’ WR1 did really well (24.9 for Puka in Week 1; 30+ in the other three). The Rams are A) a concentrated offense, and B) an offense that doesn’t rely on chunk plays, while the Rams’ RB position derives a lot of its fantasy value from touchdowns. In games in which the Rams’ WR1 is underperforming, the Rams are likely to be moving the ball less well, which means fewer opportunities for RB touchdowns. In games in which the Rams’ WR1 is racking up yards and catches, the chances of touchdowns flowing to the RB are increased. This is a positively-correlated pairing that most people won’t recognize as such. The uncertainty around Evans’ role should keep his ownership from climbing too high, but I’ll further offset my Evans rosters by playing a Rams wideout on every single one.
How It Works:
This isn’t “enough on its own” to set your roster apart, but this does materially change your salary structure (most people who pay up for Kupp won’t also play Evans — thus, their salary structure becomes different from yours; and most people who play Evans will end up paying up in a different, cheaper way, again making their salary structure different from yours). This makes this block a really nice differentiator, in addition to being a block that simply plays into the math.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
Two-By-Two, Part II
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Walker // Geno
As we know, Kenneth Walker has only cracked 20 DK points three times in his career (going for 30+ all three times), with his touchdown-heavy production profile making it harder for him to go for a monster game. Because his high-end games tend to be so touchdown-reliant, Geno Smith is less likely to have a big game if Walker is hitting (Geno’s DK scores when Walker has hit :: 15.1 // 16.4 // 21.8). I’m typically on-board with playing a running back alongside his QB and a pass catcher, but given the unique offensive profile of the Seahawks, I’ll want to make sure that I’m not doing that with this team.
Note that there is no anchor in this rule. This rule can be read, “On 100% of rosters, play a maximum of one of these two players (and a minimum of 0).” I.e., plenty of rosters will have neither; but if a roster has one of these guys, it won’t have the other.
Wideouts Required
If I have a quarterback with rushing upside, or with an elite tight end, or if my QB is particularly touchdown-dependent for his production (Jordan Love is a good example of this), I’ll be okay leaving wide receivers off those builds. What I don’t want to do is bet on someone like Sam Howell or Matthew Stafford (where completions and yards will be required for them to hit) with only their running back or tight end. These rules below ensure that if I’m playing Howell or Stafford, at least one of their wide receivers will be included on that build.
“On 100% of (Howell // Stafford) rosters, include at least one, and as many as two of these wide receivers.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Mahomes || Stafford || Geno || Love || Deshaun || Howell || Dobbs
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
