JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
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Week 5 Winner:
Astryk :: 207.2 points scored with $6k in cap space left over
Zappe // Jeff Wilson // Breece // Lockett // Olave // Jakobi // Otton // Fournette // Cowboys
“Don’t complicate things that are simple.”
New England has the eighth lowest pass rate over expectation, the number three offensive line by adjusted line yards, and a third-string rookie QB under center.
The Browns rank dead last in both adjusted line yards on defense and run defense DVOA.
Rhamondre played 54/54 snaps last week without Damien Harris. His backup this week will be rookie Pierre Strong, who has yet to be given a single snap on offense.
Can this play disappoint? Absolutely. It’s not inconceivable that Rhamondre goes for 75 yards on the ground and 3-25 through the air, without scoring any touchdowns. You can make a case for not going here in tourneys (as you can with any player). But this is also sharp chalk, on a player who should see 25+ touches at an affordable price tag in a great matchup.
New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
“Kansas City keeps pace with (or outscores) Buffalo, and Duvernay takes away points from Andrews to maximize your paths to a first-place finish.”
I love this pairing because it doesn’t appear correlated, but it is. To be clear, it isn’t correlated in the conventional sense (“This player is doing well, so it increases the chances of this other player doing well”) outside of the obvious (Mahomes + Kelce), but it is correlated in terms of the deeper layers of DFS we always want to think about for our rosters :: “If I invest a lot of salary into this particular bet, what is my clearest path to a first-place finish?” If you invest a lot of salary into Kelce/Mahomes, your clearest path to a first-place finish is the other high-priced tight end (Andrews) coming in below expectations; and the likeliest way for that to happen is for Duvernay to be taking away points from him.
From my DFS Interpretations for this game :: when Kelce hits, Mahomes almost inevitably hits as well (Kelce’s last seven “hits,” starting from his most recent and going back to Week 1 of last year: 33.5 // 24.2 // 29.1 // 44.1 // 22.9 // 26.9 // 25.6 || Mahomes’ scores in those games :: 30.5 // 24.4 // 37.9 // 34.6 // 39.2 // 28.0 // 36.3), which means that if I’m playing Kelce, I’m likely playing Mahomes.
Said differently: if you get your Kelce bet correct, Mahomes is practically a free square for you, which means it’s somewhat nonsensical to play Kelce and not take advantage of the big score you could automatically generate for your roster at QB — especially when you consider that most people don’t realize this, and therefore don’t complete their Kelce bet.
While Mahomes is less likely than Josh Allen to have a big game, and Kelce is less likely than Mark Andrews to have a big game, the lower ownership we’re getting here makes this attractive, and the “if this, then this” bet that allows us to get two spots correct with one bet increases that attractiveness. Adding Duvernay gives you a really nice path to a first-place finish.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Josh Allen || Patrick Mahomes || Tom Brady || (Daniel Jones)
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!