Dummy Grid 4.24
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K
Kyler Murray
James Conner
Roschon Johnson
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Noah Brown
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Brenton Strange
Travis Kelce
Saints
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
None
I don’t have any players popping to me as true Blue Chips this week.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“The Works”
Kyler + Conner + Harrison
Story:
“Same Old”
Why It Works:
The Washington defense is not good, but I wonder if people realize how “not good” it has been. Through three weeks, Washington has faced the Bucs (split backfield), the Giants (concentrated backfield), and the Bengals (split backfield). This week, they face the concentrated backfield of the Cardinals (if we throw away the blowout win in Week 2, James Conner is ceding an average of five touches per game to Benson and Demercado), so we’ll simplify things by adding the combined production of the Bucs and Bengals to get these numbers. In the first three games of the year, the Commanders have allowed DK production from “QB + ‘RB’ + WR1” of about 78 DK points (Bucs), 66 DK points (Giants), and 92 DK points (Bengals). The overall talent of “Kyler + Conner + Harrison” falls somewhere between the combination of “Baker + mediocre running backs + Mike Evans” and the combination of “Joe Burrow + mediocre running backs + Ja’Marr Chase,” so it’s not unreasonable to think that if we played out this slate a hundred times, we would see this Cardinals contingent scoring around 80 DK points at a 25% clip or better (remember :: broadly speaking, DK pricing generally gets guys in ranges where they will hit 4x their combined salary about 25% of the time). These three need around 80 DK points to pay off their combined price tags, which would land you at 4x across three positions, from a large chunk of salary, thus putting you way ahead of the field. Said differently: rostering this block, in this matchup, is a bit like rostering Christian McCaffrey or Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill in a good spot, but with an even larger payoff than you get with those guys, as you’re getting more spots correct, with a larger chunk of salary. Those guys rarely reach a full 4x their salary, but they often get close enough for them to be really valuable pieces for the raw points provided. Looking at this block through that lens, it becomes really attractive this week.
How It Works:
This is the obvious game of the week, but so far, MHJ is coming in with low projected ownership, and even if he becomes popular (alongside a popular Kyler and a not-overlooked James Conner), it’s unlikely that many people will be playing this stack in this way. If this were to hit for 80 to 90 points, you would be pretty far ahead of the field. These builds don’t have to get too wild away from this stack.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Little Engines”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
The Works
Typically, I set up a few rules in the Bink Machine for the Player Grid, as I don’t fill out my own rules for the weekend until Saturday night. This week, however, I actually filled in most of my rules as I wrote my DFS Interpretations and filled out my Player Grid, which should, in theory, give me lots of fun/unique rules to choose from for this section. Interestingly, however, my rules are pretty straightforward this week, so I’m going to focus this section on the rules I’m applying around the Commanders // Cardinals game to shape these builds the way I want.
This first rule is simple :: it tells the Bink Machine that I want at least 60% of my rosters to apply “The Works” block from the Building Blocks section (Kyler + Conner + Harrison). This rule can be read as, “On at least 60% of rosters that have Kyler Murray, play all three players from this pool.”
50.4
Sticking with that same game, this rule says, “On at least 80% of rosters with Jayden Daniels, include both players from this pool” (or :: “On at least 80% of Jayden rosters, include Brian Robinson Jr.).
Jayden Bring-Backs (1 & 2)
I don’t plan to force bring-backs on Kyler rosters, but I want to make sure that all of my Jayden rosters include a bring-back. This first rule instructs the Bink Machine to include one player from my Cardinals pool on every Jayden roster, and the second rule stipulates that this Cardinals player will be either James Conner or Marvin Harrison Jr. on at least 80% of those builds.
Kyler Stacks
Finally, I want to recognize that the Commanders have allowed big “QB + 2” production in all three games so far. Because of this, I want all my Kyler rosters to have two stacking partners. In “The Works,” we ensured that at least 60% of Kyler rosters would have both Conner and MHJ on them, so what do we want to make sure we have with the other 40%?
Firstly, I want to apply a rule that says, “On all Kyler rosters, include two stacking partners.” (This rule says, “On 100% of rosters with Kyler, include three players from this pool.”)
Secondly, I want to make sure that I don’t have a bunch of, say, “Higgins + Wilson” rosters (which could hit, but are pretty low-likelihood, and are not what I’m looking to bet on). If Kyler is hitting, I want to assume there’s a high probability that MHJ is also hitting, so this final rule states that “On at least 95% of rosters with Kyler, Marvin Harrison Jr. must be included.” This will ensure that at least 60% of my Kyler builds have Kyler // Conner // MHJ, at least 95% have Kyler // MHJ, and 100% have two Cardinals paired with Kyler.
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Kyler Murray || Jayden Daniels || Joe Burrow || Andy Dalton || Maybe a bit of Darnold // Love (I’ll play JJ on these builds, but not away from these builds)
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
