Dummy Grid 4.23
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.3K
Justin Fields
Elijah Mitchell
Kyren Williams
Josh Palmer
Rashid Shaheed
Ja’Marr Chase
Cole Kmet
Marvin Mims
Browns
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Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
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Blue Chips
None
This isn’t unusual, but we’re in a week where I’m not seeing any games or players that fit the true definition of a Blue Chip for my Player Grid (low likelihood of price-considered failure AND a pretty solid shot at posting a ‘had to have it’ score). As explored in the Angles Pod this week (worth a listen, IMO), one of the unique components of this week is that the players with a low likelihood of price-considered failure generally have a lower-than-normal shot at ‘had to have it’ scores, while the players who have paths to ‘had to have it’ production come with uncomfortable floors.
“Light Blue” Chips
Josh Allen
The Bills have been praising Josh Allen for his willingness to take the underneath throws, and we know that Vic Fangio will try to set up his defense in such a way that Allen is encouraged to take the underneath throws. This will make it a bit tougher for Allen to have a true “had to have it” game — but Allen is highly unlikely to ‘hurt you’ this week, and he has clear paths to being one of the stronger plays on this slate.
I don’t expect to be playing Miami pass catchers away from Josh Allen rosters, but I’ll definitely be keeping them in the mix on Josh Allen builds.
Jalen Hurts
The matchup should not be an issue for Jalen Hurts in this spot, but the game environment could prevent him from piling up statistics deeper into this one. Similar to Allen, above (and as explored in-depth in the Angles Pod), this lowers the chances of Hurts having a true “had to have it” game — but he is highly unlikely to ‘hurt you’ this week, and he has clear paths to being one of the stronger plays on the slate.
These guys aren’t “in the Player Grid,” but I’m also keeping the Philly running backs (Swift AND Gainwell) in mind for my tighter builds this week.
Christian McCaffrey
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Concentration”
Davante + Jakobi + Josh Palmer
Story:
“Duh”
Why It Works:
I mean…it’s obvious. And all of these players will grab ownership. But this three-way pairing will be low-owned combinatorially. Obviously, Jimmy G could be added here, but the Raiders are so concentrated that you can make things even more unique by pairing this with a different QB/stack (filling out your TE position with this stack would be especially interesting :: something like Purdy/Kittle or Fields/Kmet, as this would leave you flexibility for one last wide receiver).
How It Works:
This setup isn’t so totally unique that it’s “all you need to do differently from the field,” but it does give you a unique enough starting point that you can play some popular plays elsewhere without worrying too much about it.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Overlooked? Really!?”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Play By My Rules(!) ::
In case you missed it…
We have now added the ability for me to publish my Player Groups to the Bink Machine!
I build out my pool/rules on Saturday night, into Sunday morning. I usually wrap this around 3 AM on the West Coast.
Around that time, you can find my Player Groups (rules), and can apply them to your own builds if you want.
“If Gabe”
If I’m playing Gabe Davis this week, I want to go all the way and bet that this means the Bills, as a whole, are having a big game through the air. This rule (Gabe Anchor || 3 min // 3 max with Allen // Diggs) tells the Bink Machine to play all three players in this pool on 100% of the rosters that include Gabe Davis.
“2 backs, 1 game”
It’s a bit early in this particular week (when I want to really “let the slate come to me” — as explored in the Angles Pod) to know exactly what percentage of my rosters I’ll want this rule on, but here’s a look at how I might balance my aim of getting Kyren Williams and Zack Moss onto some rosters together :: Kyren anchor // Moss included on at least 35% of builds.
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Josh Allen || Hurts || Richardson || Stafford || Fields || Russ || Purdy || Stroud
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
