JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
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Over the last two seasons, Travis Kelce has (only…) nine games with 23+ DraftKings Points. Patrick Mahomes has scored 28+ DraftKings points in eight of those nine games (with 30+ in seven, and well over 30 in most). We talked about this last year, but if you are getting the Travis Kelce bet correct, you are almost certainly getting the Patrick Mahomes bet correct as well, which means that almost all of my Kelce builds will include Mahomes. Mahomes is also a Light Blue chip on his own, and is only kept from being a Blue Chip by the lack of certainty around stacking partners. I.e., Kelce doesn’t hit quite often enough to be a true Blue Chip at his price…and if Kelce isn’t the one hitting, it’s essentially impossible to know who (if anyone) will “hit” instead. I’ll take swings on other Kansas City pass catchers in large-field play, but my tighter builds will likely focus primarily on pairing Kelce and Mahomes together.
“Gabe Davis hits”
In all four games last year in which Gabe Davis went for a score between “acceptable” and “excellent,” Diggs and Allen also hit. While this isn’t predictive, it does indicate to us that when Gabe is hitting, it’s likely coming in a game in which the Bills as a whole are hitting. Thus: “getting Gabe right almost certainly means you’re also getting Diggs and Allen right,” allowing you to take full advantage.
Because Gabe’s ceiling is so high and his ownership is likely to be so low, a big game from him automatically sets your roster apart. Add in the fact that most who play him won’t complete the bet, and this becomes the sort of high-upside stack that we’ll probably see on less than 1% of tourney builds. If you get one thing right (Gabe hitting), you’re probably getting three things right with a lot of upside and a good chunk of your salary, putting you well ahead of the field, and allowing you to pretty much play your favorite plays across the rest of your roster.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Every time Gabe Davis hit last year, Diggs and Allen hit as well. I.e., “Gabe hitting” likely means “Bills as a whole hitting.” Because of this, I like a rule where every Gabe Davis roster includes both Diggs and Allen as well. This rule looks like this (Gabe Davis Anchor; include all 3 in this pool; i.e., “If Gabe gets put on a roster, the other two in this pool have to be on there as well”) ::
I don’t know for sure if I’ll have this rule, but it is certainly viable (“at least one of CMC // Deebo // Aiyuk // Kittle on every roster”). We can force this in the Bink Machine by narrowing our player pool to the 49ers we want, making sure we have a rule that Purdy has to be paired with a pass catcher (eliminating potential for “Purdy naked” rosters), and then changing the following box to “1” in the Team Constraints section of Team Stacks (i.e., “at least one 49ers player on every roster”) ::
As we know, “ceiling games” from Seahawks pass catchers almost always require an opponent to put up points. If I have Lockett or Metcalf, I want to also have at least one piece from the Lions, and I’ll be willing to have as many as two. This rule looks like this (anchor Metcalf; at least two players from this pool; as many as three; i.e., “If we have Metcalf, make sure we have one to two of these others” // run this same rule for Lockett) ::
If Mike Evans hits, this opens an opportunity for one of the three main pass-catchers on the Bears to hit as well. As such, I want my Mike Evans (large-field) rosters to include one of DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, or Cole Kmet. This rule looks like this (Mike Evans anchor; include exactly one of these others) ::
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Josh Allen || Patrick Mahomes || Trevor Lawrence || Justin Herbert || Brock Purdy || Jared Goff || Geno Smith || Anthony Richardson || Daniel Jones
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!