Dummy Grid 16.24
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Anthony Richardson
Saquon Barkley
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jalen Coker
Josh Downs
Malik Washington
Austin Hooper
Hunter Henry
Seahawks
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Hurts // Saquon
Saquon is the forgotten man among the four most expensive running backs on DK…in spite of the fact that he has five games this year that have outscored the best game from every other starting running back on this slate(!). He’s hardly more expensive than any of the other top four, and because his valleys are slightly lower than the other guys, people will avoid him. Are we playing for first place, or not?
Saquon is an obvious top play on his own; but even better than that :: when he doesn’t hit, Hurts often does. Since the Eagles’ bye, Hurts has scored 29+ DK points in 40% of his games, as has Saquon. Who else is doing what these two are doing?
In MME (or even on hand-builds for SE/3-Max), splitting these two across a large chunk of your rosters (with a small dash of rosters on which they overlap) is a clear +EV angle.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“$7.2k Puka”
[ redacted ] // [ Redacted ]
Story:
“$7.2k Puka strikes again”
Why It Works:
Over his last five games, Puka Nacua has posted scores of 17.8 // 44.8 // 17.3 // 23.7 // 28.3. Everyone is aware of this, and he tends to draw somewhat heavy ownership.
Over their last five games, “$7.2k Puka” has posted scores of 13.3 // 28.7 // 25.3 // 19.8 // 21.7. The ceiling for $7.2k Puka hasn’t been “44.8,” but the rest of the numbers line up pretty similarly. As the name suggests, $7.2k Puka costs $800 less than Puka this week. Also, no one will be on it.
How It Works:
Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry comprise $7.2k Puka, in a matchup against a Bills team that should establish a dominant lead, allowing the Patriots to rack up passing volume. Playing these two together is a unique way to save salary while opening the door to a really nice range of “guaranteed points.” This also allows plenty of flexibility elsewhere on your roster. This is a foundational piece that can be uses in contests of any size, and if these two combine for 25+, you’ll have a shot at being pretty far ahead of your competition in the “salary saver” category (with Brenton Strange being the major obstacle in the way of this one paying off :: if Strange goes for, say, 18+ at high ownership, the edge gained on this pairing would obviously be lost). This isn’t enough to win you a tourney on its own, and other rosters will have similar salary structures, meaning you still want to think about doing something unique or different from here. But this is a nice starting point for salary savings, where each guy is central to the Patriots offense, and when one is doing well, the other is typically doing well also.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Fly Eagles”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Saquon // Hurts
In the Blue Chip section, we talked about the consistency with which one or the other of these two has hit, making it +EV to consider splitting these two up (with a small amount of overlap) across a decent chunk of MME rosters. This first rule says, “On at least 60% of all rosters, include one or two of these players.” (Note: you would also want to prescribe individual ownership to Saquon and Hurts, to make sure you’re getting this split at the level you want it; for me, probably 40% Saquon, 20% Hurts.)
Saquon + Hurts
This rule says, “On at least 92% of Saquon rosters, do not include Hurts.”
Saquon + Hurts 2
In order to make sure we get some overlap, this rule says, “On at least 5% of Saquon rosters, include Hurts.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Jalen Hurts || Anthony Richardson || >< || Caleb Williams || Michael Penix || >< || Matthew Stafford || Aaron Rodgers
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
