Dummy Grid 12.23
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Josh Allen
Derrick Henry
Jaylen Warren
Nico Collins
Greg Dortch
Gabe Davis
Pat Freiermuth
Khalil Shakir
Texans
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 100 Edge Points
3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
4th Place = 50 Edge Points
5th Place = 25 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Opening Note
One of the things I’ve tried to get better at over the years is “time management with regards to what is actually most valuable for subscribers.” I.e., “Sometimes, the most valuable thing for subscribers is for me to have less time writing, and more time researching and thinking through the slate.” And yet, I still sometimes find myself falling into the old rut of “more work is always better!”
As Aaron (RotoMaven on Discord — our COO at OWS) has pointed out to me in the past: “Your analysis on these players is already in your DFS Interpretations; when you do new writeups for the Player Grid, you’re usually just rephrasing what you’ve already written, and adding more work on your end.”
I’ve tried to listen to Aaron on this (you’ll typically see me pull a handful of snippets from my DFS Interpretations into the Player Grid), but usually I still find myself thinking something like, “What if subscribers think I’m just being lazy?” (LOL.)
With the holiday week, however, I’m finally being forced toward making sharper decisions, as my options this week are “do a bunch of extra work rephrasing what I’ve already written, and get the Player Grid out later than normal,” or instead “pull what I’ve already written in DFS Interpretations and get the Player Grid out on time.”
I’m choosing the latter — so you’ll find some fresh writeups below in places where fresh writeups are better or more relevant; but in places where “what I’ve already written” is already everything I need to say, “what I’ve already written” is what is provided.
As Aaron would also probably point out: “Subscribers don’t care about that. They want to know your player pool, and those who read the full Player Grid want good info. As long as you’re providing that, you’re good. No need for the explanation.” But there’s the explanation nonetheless.
I’ll also note that the Angles Pod is always a valuable complement to the Player Grid, as I’m able to get more nuanced and comprehensive in my exploration of slate strategy in that format. But if you don’t typically listen to the Angles Pod, I would especially recommend listening this week. (You can find it on the One Week Season YouTube channel, or on the One Week Season podcast feed.)
Finally: I wanted to take a moment to express a bit of gratitude. The content on OWS is, in my opinion, the most valuable in the industry, but more than anything, the OWS community is what really makes this site what it is. Thank you for being part of what we’re building here. I’m incredibly grateful to the OWS Fam!
With that, let’s dive in.
Blue Chips
Bills Pass
From my DFS Interpretations for this game:
- Only six teams on this slate have a positive expected PROE (and one of them is the Bengals, whose heavy pass play rates may obviously go down without Joe Burrow). The Bills have the highest expected PROE on the weekend, while the Eagles have the fourth highest expected PROE on the weekend. This is a great starting point for fantasy production.
- We also know — from listening to Nick Sirianni throughout the season, and from watching Eagles games — that Philadelphia’s offensive ethos is “to score as many points as they can, as quickly/aggressively as they can.” Said differently: this is never going to be a team that is trying to “chess match” their way to a win. And as we have explored throughout the season: when two teams such as these play one another, each tends to enter with an aggressive game plan, knowing that no lead is safe, and that a large number of points will almost certainly be required.
- The narrative around the Bills has been different from their reality, as — from what I can gather — the talking heads have apparently been cherry-picking stats to tell the story they want to tell (i.e., “Josh Allen leads the league in interceptions” — true; but also, he had an awful Week 1 game with three interceptions, and has 12 picks on the season; take away that game, and he has the same number of picks as MVP betting favorites Hurts and Mahomes, and only one more than MVP betting favorite Tua), while ignoring the fact that the Bills rank second in the NFL in EPA/play on offense and third in offensive DVOA (second through the air; sixth on the ground). It is certainly true that Ken Dorsey was not as strong as Brian Daboll with play sequencing, and he underutilized motion, but the offense has not been the problem for this team. Add the public perception around this team to the unexpectedly low implied team total (22.75, as of this writeup), and I could see the field failing to recognize this for the great spot that it is.
- As we’ve explored throughout the season, the Eagles aren’t actually bad against the pass, but similar to the old Buccaneers defenses, they are SO good against the run that they end up facing heavy passing volume (a downright wacky 40.5 pass attempts per game!), which allows stats to pile up. Mac Jones (316-3), Kirk Cousins (364-4), Sam Howell (397-4), and Dak Prescott (374-3) have all had signature games in this matchup. Allen leaps off the screen this week.
- Alphas have led the way through the air against the Eagles, with Justin Jefferson going 11-159-0, Kupp going 8-118-0, Garrett Wilson going 8-90-0, Tyreek going 11-88-1, and CeeDee Lamb going 11-191-0, making Stefon Diggs stand out here. At the same time, the Eagles have also been hit by Jahan Dotson (8-108-1), Jamison Crowder (7-95-1), and Kendrick Bourne (6-64-2), speaking to the opportunity available for Gabriel Davis and Khalil Shakir as well. Each guy is viable at his respective price point.
- Kevin Byard was added to the Eagles’ secondary, in part, to help them handle tight ends, and he gave Travis Kelce fits on Monday night (only 44 yards receiving on nine targets), though Jake Ferguson did go 7-91-1 in Week 9, so it’s not as if Dalton Kincaid is drawing dead. He’s in the mix for me too.
- James Cook is the least attractive option on this side of the ball, but in stacks built around this game, I’ll consider all players.
- The matchups aren’t quite as straightforward on the other side of the ball, but the Bills have been inconsistent, at best, on defense this year, with their full-season numbers primarily looking solid due to two matchups against the Jets, and matchups against Jimmy G, Tyrod, and the conservative Broncos. Sam Howell struggled in this matchup, but Trevor Lawrence threw for a season-best 315 yards, Mac Jones went 272-2, Baker Mayfield went 237-2, and “the elites” that this team has faced (Tua: 282-1 // Burrow: 348-2) both performed well, statistically (with Tua’s game coming against a much healthier version of this team).
- The Bills have been essentially “middling” against both the pass and the run — with DVOA rankings of 16th (pass) and 14th (run), and with EPA rankings of ninth (pass) and 16th (run). Three different running backs have gone for 100+ yards in this spot (with two adding multiple touchdowns) — with big plays generally a big part of the “big production” on the ground against this defense (i.e.: take away the big plays, and the typical game against this run defense doesn’t look all that great…but this defense can be hit for big plays).
- Taking all of this into account, I’m less interested in the Philly side of this game for one-offs — but I do expect to have a heavy focus on this game in terms of stacks; and if I stick with this approach, all of D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith will be in the mix for me. Said differently: I don’t expect to have much exposure to these guys away from rosters built around this game…but I do expect to have a lot of rosters built around this game, and to have plenty of exposure to these guys as a result.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Oh, Canada”
Warren + Pickens
Story:
“The Steelers emphasize their best players with Matt Canada gone”
Why It Works:
From my DFS Interpretations for this game:
- The Bengals generally tilt opponents away from wideouts, but after holding all wideouts to 72 or fewer yards through the first five weeks of the season, they have been hit for totals of 94 yards by Tyler Lockett (eight targets), 109 yards by Brandon Aiyuk (nine targets), 86 yards by Stefon Diggs (seven targets), 172 yards by Noah Brown (eight targets), and 116 yards by Odell Beckham (seven targets). These have all come in consecutive games, and it’s reasonable to think that new offensive play caller Mike Sullivan will also be tasked with unlocking George Pickens the rest of the way. Pickens is absolutely capable of going for 100+ yards on seven to nine targets, making him an intriguing option on this slate as well. “Warren + Pickens” pairings will also be unique, and it won’t be surprising if we see something like 6-100 for Pickens and 100 yards rushing plus five DK points through the air for Warren (he has 4.6+ points through the air in three of his last four games). If these two add a couple touchdowns, that would be around 50 points combined. Obviously (as with any play), this play could go the wrong way as well; but the pathways to upside are clear, and this would seem to be a player block most people won’t be on.
How It Works:
This block isn’t going to “win you a tourney” on its own, so you’ll still need to look to do something different in other spots on your roster (especially as this setup won’t materially alter your salary allocation compared to the chalkiest rosters this week), but this should be hugely unique, giving you a nice starting point if this pairing hits.
Note (as talked about in the Angles Pod), you could also run this out with Warren and Freiermuth.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Princess Anna of Arendale”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
“Princess Anna”
I’m not sure exactly what percentage I’ll use of this rule, but this rule (which I have, in fact, named “Princess Anna” in my Bink Machine Player Groups) says, “Play one of Tank Dell // Nico Collins on at least 70% of rosters.”
“The Overlooked”
I like Thielen. I like Henry. No one likes either — so if their ownership is low, their combinatorial ownership will be even lower. They’re also in the same game, and play off each other well (if the Titans control this game, Henry is running more; if the Titans are controlling this game, the Panthers are throwing more). This rule says, “On at least 8% of rosters, play both Thielen and Henry.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Josh Allen || Gardiner Minshew || Baker Mayfield || Possibly Kyler // Stafford (I’ll also have some Hurts, opposite Allen, and I like Stroud, but am not currently leaning toward him on tighter builds; realistically, Josh Allen will be on over 50% of my rosters this week, and will be on most of my SE/3-max, so the rest of this is window-dressing, in a sense)
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
