Baker Mayfield decimated the Commanders secondary. Daniel Jones decimated the Commanders secondary. So how is Joe Burrow not going to do the same? Burrow and the Bengals have been a disaster thus far, but things should turn around as soon as they take the field this weekend against a secondary that is completely overmatched and shows little room for improvement. Look for Burrow to throw for close to 300 yards and three passing TDs.
The Ravens have gotten off to a rough start in 2024, losing to Kansas City (expected) and Las Vegas (completely unexpected). This game against Dallas has become a “must-win,” and I am buying into Lamar doing whatever he needs to do to will the Ravens to victory. So far this season, we haven’t seen Lamar break off many big runs, but this looks like the week for him to do that. Micah Parsons will be putting pressure on him, but he should take advantage of an over-pursuing defense for some big gains. I am thinking 240 passing yards and a TD, plus 55 rushing yards and a TD.
By now, we know that the Lions are hard to run against and that the best way to beat them is through the air. Enter the Cardinals and Murray, who are coming off an offensive explosion against the Rams at home and are hoping to do it again this week. A confident Murray has been a rare sight over the past few seasons, so it will be interesting to see if Arizona can string together two good weeks in a row. Look for Murray to find Greg Dortch in the slot, as the Lions have shown themselves to be susceptible there in the first two games. If Murray can keep his composure in the pocket, he has a great chance to throw for 250+ yards and two TDs.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith
With Tua out for the next few weeks, Miami is going to need to rely on their running game and short passing attack. Miami Head Coach Mike McDaniel has already said this week that Achane is deserving of more touches, and with Skyler Thompson struggling to throw deep, I can see a ton of dump-offs happening to him. If Raheem Mostert is out again, Achane’s ceiling might be as high as 25-20 fantasy points. Even if Mostert plays, Achane should be a lock for 15.
Let’s keep track of who is out for San Francisco: CMC, Deebo, and likely George Kittle (hamstring). With all that talent on the sidelines, it’s lucky that the 49ers are playing the Rams, who are almost as equally injured (Kupp and Nacua are out). The 49ers will lean on Mason as much as possible and feed him with regularity. I am convinced that Mason has more receiving chops than we’ve seen thus far, which could be great in PPR. Look for him to get 20 fantasy points, with a shot at hitting 30 if the Rams find a way to keep it competitive.
In a video I saw this past week, Kenneth Walker was running a straight-line sprint, and after he stopped, he grabbed a hold of his oblique and started to walk off the field slowly. That short video was all the proof I needed to think that Walker will be OUT on Sunday, leaving Charbonnet as the main ball carrier. Miami struggled to stop Travis Etienne in Week 1, and they really struggled to stop James Cook in Week 2. With Charbonnet likely getting 20 touches, I think he is a lock for 90+ total yards from scrimmage and a TD.
Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Zamir White
Washington’s secondary has been torched by Mike Evans in Week 1 and Malik Nabers in Week 2. Cincinnati has struggled mightily on offense, but they seemed to have found some rhythm in the game against Kansas City. The Bengals work best when Burrow takes a few big shots downfield and I think this might be a week where Chase goes for 150+ yards and multiple TDs.
Through the first two games, Atlanta has played the 5th most zone coverage on defense. There might not be a better zone receiver around than Rashee Rice. With Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown out, I expect that Patrick Mahomes will need to throw a lot of short and medium-range passes. That is where Rice thrives, and he should easily see double-digit targets and about 15+ fantasy points.
In the Saints Week 1 drubbing of the Panthers, Rashid Shaheed made the big play. In the Week 2 drubbing of the Cowboys, it was Alvin Kamara who led the Saints with three TDs. In both weeks, Saints star receiver Chris Olave was used more as a decoy downfield than the viable target. In a game that is expected to have a lot of back-and-forth, look for OC Klint Kubiak to try to get Olave involved. He has a big speed advantage against Eagles CB Darius Slay, and I think this might be the week Olave breaks out.
Honorable Mention: DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk
Kansas City has allowed 25 receptions to opposing tight ends and an 83% catch rate (both stats being the worst in the league). Pitts disappointed against the Eagles, but football is all about matchups, and Pitts has the best one for any tight end, by far. I love his over 35.5. receiving yards prop bet, and I love him as a visionary play.
If Arizona plays the way that I expect, Kyler Murray is going to need to pass about 40 times. This should pave the way for McBride to get about 8-10 targets, making him possibly the most targeted tight end on the slate. He should be good for 12-14 fantasy points with an outside possibility of 20 if he can find the end zone.
Defense vs. Position is one of my favorite stats to use. Most times, it helps lead us to make great decisions, but sometimes the numbers don’t add up. Take the Saints, for instance–they played Carolina (Ja’Tavion Sanders) in Week 1 and Dallas (Jake Ferguson injured) in Week 2, so do we really know how good they are versus opposing tight ends? I don’t think so. With A.J. Brown out again this week, Jalen Hurts is going to need Goedert to step up as the team’s second receiving option. I think he does to the tune of 50+ yards and a TD.
Honorable Mention: Jonnu Smith, Jake Ferguson (if active)
