Thursday, Dec 12th

Doc’s Visionary Plays: Week 12

QB:

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Hopefully, the 10 days since Washington’s last game will help Daniels heal, as his rib injury has held him back from taking too many chances with either his arm or with his legs. There’s no better team to play right now than the Cowboys, who have been ultra generous on defense, so look for Daniels to get back on track, throwing for 250 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Jared Goff, Lions

Most people would argue that the Lions are the front runners to be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. They’ve demolished pretty much every team they faced, and it should be much the same this weekend against Indianapolis. The Colts have had trouble stopping the run, and their zone defense will have a lot of issues stopping the Lions receivers. Look for Goff to throw for 265 passing yards and multiple touchdowns.

Bo Nix, Broncos

Nix looked tremendous last week, throwing four TD passes to four different receivers. This week, Denver plays the Raiders who are missing important pieces in their secondary. Don’t forget about Nix’s mobility, which is extremely underrated. It wouldn’t shock me if he had another 40 or 50 rushing yards to go along with 230 passing yards and 2 TDs.

Justin Herbert, Chargers

When the season started, people expected the Chargers to be a run-first team, but since their BYE, their PROE (pass rate over expectation) has been incredibly high. I expect this to be a high-scoring game with Herbert not only dominating with his arm but also with his legs, as he’s shown a propensity to run in recent games. He should have his best chance in a while to have a three-touchdown performance.

Tommy DeVito, Giants

If there was ever a game for Tommy Cutlets to take the reins, Week 12 against Tampa is a perfect time for him to do it. Tampa has struggled to stop the pass, and DeVito is going to be aggressive and take his shots downfield. Look for him to throw for about 220 yards and one touchdown, with a good chance that he will run in another touchdown as well.

RB:

De’Von Achane, Dolphins

New England has allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing running backs, along with the fifth most rushing touchdowns this season. They’ve also allowed a ton of big plays, which is Achane’s specialty. I think Achane breaks off one of those big runs this week as he goes for 140 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.

James Conner, Cardinals

Seattle has allowed the 7th most yards after contact to running backs, which doesn’t bode well for them, considering how physical a runner Conner is. The Cardinals scheme a lot of the zone runs, and their offensive line has played at a high level all season. For the Cardinals to win this game, Conner is going to need at least 100 all-purpose yards, and I think he gets that number easily.

Brian Robinson, Jr., Commanders

The Cowboys defense has been horrific all season long, allowing the second most touchdowns to opposing running backs and the sixth most receiving yards to opposing running backs out of the backfield. Robinson has had 10 days to rest his injured knee, which should be a big help, and I can’t imagine him not scoring this week.

David Montgomery, Lions

From week to week, it’s hard to decide which Lions running back I like more, but I always tend to prefer Montgomery on the road, as Dan Campbell likes to control the time of possession and take the crowd out of the game. Look for Montgomery to continue his stellar season with 80 yards and a touchdown.

Tyrone Tracy, Jr., Giants

The Buccaneers have allowed the fifth most receptions to opposing running backs as well as the fourth most receiving yards. Moreover, they allow the seventh-highest yards per carry, which bodes particularly well for Tracy, who’s such an explosive runner. Put this lethal combination together, and Tracy should have a game where he goes for at least 120 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.

WR:

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Indianapolis plays a ton of Cover 3 zone, which plays right into the hands of St. Brown, who has a 29% target rate against this type of coverage. The Colts have allowed the 8th most receiving yards to opposing receivers, so look for the Sun God to have double-digit targets as well as 100 yards and a touchdown.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

Hill is known for how well he dominates man coverage, and this week, he faces New England, who plays the second most man coverage in the league. The Patriots have also allowed the sixth most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, and it just feels like Hill and Tua are starting to find their rhythm. Look for Hill to get 6 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown.

DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs

The Panthers play a lot of Cover 3 zone defense, which feeds exactly into the routes that Hopkins loves to run. Hopkins will be peppered with targets all game long, and in a game where the Chiefs are heavily favored, there’s a better-than-average chance that he finds the end zone.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers

I can make a great argument that McConkey has been the top rookie receiver this season. This week, he gets arguably the best matchup on the board as the Ravens have allowed the most completions to their opposition as well as the most receiving yards to opposing receivers and the second most touchdowns. At the end of last week’s game against Cincinnati, Justin Herbert specifically was looking for McConkey, and I expect that he’s going to feature him against Baltimore.

Jakobi Meyers, Raiders

Even though Meyers has a difficult match-up against Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, Meyers is very much in play because Denver plays the second-most man coverage in the league. When teams play the Raiders in this type of coverage, Meyers has a 31% target rate. Opportunity equals fantasy points, and fantasy points equals fantasy victories, so start Meyers and expect 80 yards and a TD.

TE:

Travis Kelce, Chiefs

Carolina has the third-worst DVOA against opposing tight ends, and they also allow 8.94 YPT and seven touchdowns to the position. In a game where Kansas City is favored by a ton, I fully expect Kelce to find the end zone as Kansas City resumes its winning ways.

Will Dissly, Chargers

The Ravens have allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends as well as the second-most receiving yards. They have the fifth-worst DVOA against the position and Dissly has been peppered with a ton of targets over the last few games by Justin Herbert. Look for Dissly to have another 12 to 15 fantasy points in what should be a high-scoring contest.

Cade Otton, Bucs

The Giants have allowed the second-fewest receptions to opposing tight ends this season; however, they’ve allowed an 88.1% catch rate which is the highest in the league. What this tells me is that when opposing quarterbacks choose to throw to the tight end, they are completing passes. Otton has been Baker’s favorite target and I expect him to have another six catches this week at a minimum.

Theo Johnson, Giants

Tampa has allowed the highest YPT to opposing tight ends with a robust 9.50. Moreover, they allow an 80% catch rate and have the ninth-worst DVOA against the position. Tommy DeVito will need a good outlet to avoid the Tampa pass rush, and Johnson should fulfill that role.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, Panthers

The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, as well as 8.95 YPT. It’s easy to overlook Sanders, considering how bad the Panthers offense has been, but Week 12 is brutal because of all the teams on BYE. Sanders might be one of the sneakier plays on the slate, and he should be able to get 8-10 fantasy points at a difficult position.